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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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I believe 2 AF C-130's are still in the US Virgin Islands.  As to flying the storms so the folks in the Antilles know whats coming?  Trust me.  The folks down there are very aware.  All they need is an estimate.  They aren't going anywhere and they are already prepared. They will fly it if it looks to threaten the Islands and when it's safe to fly it.

But if you're that curious you can track all of the aircraft here...

https://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/#!/status/list 

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I am sure we'll fly a recon mission in Irma when it gets within range for the islands. My earlier post was referring to Gulf Stream flights for heights sampling and atmospheric data for models. Wouldn't expect to see that until Irma is within 96 hrs of potential CONUS threat as it wouldn't contribute enough discernable improvement in modeling that far out in time to matter.

 

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21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A Category 4 hurricane in New York State (most likely Long Island) would be a very rare, but probably not impossible event.
If one runs a power distribution on land falling hurricane impacts in the Virginia-Maine area, the numbers would suggest approximately a one-in-200-year case. Obviously Virginia would be far more favored than New York.

Although no Category 4 hurricanes affected this area (VA-ME) since 1851, it is plausible that the 1821 Hurricane that made second landfall near Cape May, NJ might have been at Category 4 strength when it moved across the Virginia Capes. 

Moreover, one storm was observed just below Category 4 strength around 40°N latitude. Gerda (1969) had 110-knot sustained winds as far north as 40.1°N, 69.9°W.
The 1635 New England hurricane may have rivaled the 1938 hurricane's intensity (105 knot sustained winds). There is also some sedimentary evidence of an even greater hurricane that impacted New Jersey northward sometime in the 1278-1446 time frame, but other variables e.g., a strike at high tide might offer alternative explanations.

Always fascinated by the early hurricanes in New England esp the 1635 storm plus the pre colonial storm as mentioned don.  Fascinating to think about these storms have been affecting the area for 800 plus years. This will def be a interesting storm to track

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