Major Hurricane Irma

[sirkan]

 

[CamSE-Wx]

12z GFS noticeably south through 18

[beanskip]

And through 24 -- NHC guys will be cussing up a storm if the 12z runs go west. I know I would be.

2 minutes ago, cdhay17 said:

12z GFS noticeably south through 18

 

[Tatamy]

Per San Juan radar Irma is doing Necker Island and Richard Branson's place as I type this post.  Hopefully they are secure in that concrete wine cellar.

[dbullsfan]

noob question i was hoping someone could help, the tracks early yesterday seemed to have the current wnw trend over PR but than taking more of a directly western track for a day or 2 before turning back nw and to the north. What has caused this dramatic change that seems to be affecting the models because the current track seems right on line with where the older models had it while ending up on the western side of Florida. thanks

[Chubbiegull]

Does the Gulf stream have any effect on the path of a storm like this???

[Tullioz]

10 minutes ago, loshjott said:

I don't see that on the local NWS page: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=18.349&lon=-64.9304#.WbAVPnZ959M

 

EDIT: or see above for extreme wind warning.

The tornado warning is showing up on the radar screen. Not sure why it's not included it in the text. 

 

[sojitodd]

I really wish the motion would be showing  more of a northerly component...it looks like the southern eyewall will be very close to the San Juan urban area. Scary.

[bobbutts]

12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Posted this earlier, still looks to be the same. St. Thomas is going to take a direct hit unless a significant Northern shift occurs very soon. According to the radar, an island wide tornado warning has been issued for that island, although I cannot locate the text anywhere.

Was just looking at latest model/official tracks and they were all a bit north of St. Thomas.  Does anyone have any analysis about this initial motion as it relates to future track?

[Upper Level LOL]

1 minute ago, Chubbiegull said:

Does the Gulf stream have any effect on the path of a storm like this???

The hot waters are fuel, but it doesn't have any steering impact

[USCG RS]

The tornado warning is showing up on the radar screen. Not sure why it's not include it in the text. 



 

It's an extreme wind warning. They're saying treat it as a tornado.

[Drz1111]

Just now, sojitodd said:

I really wish the motion would be showing  more of a northerly component...it looks like the southern eyewall will be very close to the San Juan urban area. Scary.

This would actually be GREAT for Puerto Rico.  The running joke among the folks working with the PR government right now is that a hurricane would save the island by cleaning out unneeded housing stock and triggering a flood of federal aid that's desperately needed.

[NJwx85]

Just now, bobbutts said:

Was just looking at latest model/official tracks and they were all a bit north of St. Thomas.  Does anyone have any analysis about this initial motion as it relates to future track?

I'm not entirely sure, the 12z GFS has Irma narrowly missing PR, however I think it might still be too far North. The radar really doesn't have much of a Northerly component to it.

[1900hurricane]

52 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Despite the intensity debate, there has to have been some sort of record set for maintaining 180+mph for over 24 hours now. That, is insane.

As it stands right now, the 1.25 days with an intensity of 155 kt+ ties the NAtl record first set by Allen '80, although Allen did it in three separate stints while Irma has done it in one. Globally going back to 1970, only Angela '95, Meranti '16, Chaba '04, and Haiyan '13 have maintained for longer, with the former two netting 1.75 days and the latter two 1.5. Irma is in some rare company.

[jbenedet]

10 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Extreme Wind Warning
VIC020-030-061715-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.EW.W.0001.170906T1516Z-170906T1715Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Extreme Wind Warning
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1116 AM AST WED SEP 6 2017

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a

* Extreme Wind Warning for...
  Saint John in Virgin Islands...
  Saint Thomas in Virgin Islands...

* Until 115 PM AST

* At 1114 AM AST, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
  extreme winds, associated with the eyewall of Major Hurricane
  Irma, about to move over St John, moving west at 20 mph. This
  extreme winds will affect St John and St Thomas through 100 PM
  AST. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado
was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your
shelter. Take action now to protect your life!

The safest place to be during a major landfalling hurricane is in a
reinforced interior room away from windows. Get under a table or
other piece of sturdy furniture. Use mattresses, blankets or pillows
to cover your head and body. Remain in place through the passage of
these life-threatening conditions.

Interesting...

NHC advisory says WNW track. This advisory notes a west track. Radar seems to indicate to me a track oscillating between WNW and W.

Critical difference for these islands.

[ncwxlvr]

Is there somewhere we can talk about fake weather sites regarding Irma?  These are concerning me greatly.

National Weather Systems - Hurricane Watch issued for Florida

Hurricane IRMA Center and Updates - Category 5 Facebook Page

[NJwx85]

The 12z GFS starts the North turn around hrs 67-68. Core stays away from Cuba. It's a very gradual turn, like more to the WNW rather than a NW.

[nwohweather]

Honestly I still think this has a chance at hitting 200mph or even higher. 

I'm not sold yet. Gotta remember a hurricane is essentially a Carnot heat engine and those have an upper bound that cannot be passed. I'd be shocked to see it pass 190 but it's truly frightening that it may

[Hurricane Agnes]

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

4 minutes ago, Tullioz said:

The tornado warning is showing up on the radar screen. Not sure why it's not include it in the text. 



 
 

It's an extreme wind warning. They're saying treat it as a tornado.

Also in their Hurricane Local Statement they have this section (with the assumption that one or even a water spout, could spin up at any time) -

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VIZ001&warncounty=VIC030&firewxzone=VIZ001&local_place1=Charlotte Amalie VI&product1=Hurricane+Local+Statement&lat=18.349&lon=-64.9304#.WbAYYtGQy00

[NJwx85]

I think St. Thomas is the benchmark for PR. If they get into the center of the eye, the chance for a direct hit on PR dramatically increases IMO.

[sojitodd]

4 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

This would actually be GREAT for Puerto Rico.  The running joke among the folks working with the PR government right now is that a hurricane would save the island by cleaning out unneeded housing stock and triggering a flood of federal aid that's desperately needed.

With Harvey and whatever impacts Irma has on the US mainland, I have a feeling PR would be getting the short end of the stick when it comes to federal aid with this one. Just destruction, misery, damage, deaths, and a further depopulation as more people flee to the mainland US. This hurricane is not hitting that area in a vacuum of no other events anywhere else. In fact, with the mainland US taking a hit and along with Harvey, this would be the worst possible time for the south eyewall to hit San Juan.

[NJwx85]

On the 12z GFS the center barely moves hrs 75-80. Should have seen a more Northerly turn at this point...

[McQuackleton]

Through HR72, seems to be following the same track NHC put out.

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I think St. Thomas is the benchmark for PR. If they get into the center of the eye, the chance for a direct hit on PR dramatically increases IMO.

Agreed. I also don't think any model had a direct hit in ST thomas. The UKmet and Euro are likely the closest so far though.

[NJwx85]

Still basically drifting NW through hr 87. Very little movement for a 12-18hr period.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

On the 12z GFS the center barely moves hrs 75-80. Should have seen a more Northerly turn at this point...

Windshield wiper run.  Hopefully nobody went all in on the 00z/06z runs.

[NJwx85]

Even a slight turn back to the West at hr 88. These wobbles will be hard to predict, but this run should be West of the last several.

[Joe4alb]

On its current path Irma looks to just miss PR. I would say southern eyewall will be within 50 miles, so it's gonna be close.

[beanskip]

Pretty sizeable WSW shift from 6z run through 78 hours.

[NJwx85]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Windshield wiper run.  Hopefully nobody went all in on the 00z/06z runs.

That was precisely the basis for my earlier post. Models over corrected East after being too far South yesterday. I feel fairly confident that we end up in SE FL at the end.