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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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I would like to empathize that while most of the guidance shows some weakening over the next day or two, all guidance that keeps Irma away from Cuba shows significant strengthening once in the Southern Bahamas. I wouldn't be lowering awareness if recon finds that Irma has weakened slightly. It should still be a cat 4 on approach to Florida, and that could be conservative. 

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18 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Yeah, at hours T+192, T+216, and T+240....I suspect that if the U of Albany graphic went out to those leads, Euro would continue it's dominance.  The stats don't lie.

Not just hour 192.

It's been erratic with anything past hour 72.

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25 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

It's getting to the Point where some of the consensus models don't matter because the Euro is so dominant (I really wish the Euro ensemble mean was on that chart, though). 

It's so good it's getting boring - witness the immense resistance in this thread to Euro dominance. 

When a given run has a divergence between the OP and EPS, the very next OP run moves to what the EPS had in the run 12 hrs earlier. Like we saw how the 0z OP shifted just north of Cuba like the 12Z EPS mean had.

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3 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Not just hour 192.

It's been erratic with anything past hour 72.

Except for the fact that it's wrecking everything else in verification, even at hour 120. Does the verification link really need posted for the thousandth time?  The math says ECMWF is best, so I trust it the most. 

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2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

What's the basis for calling this the most powerful Atlantic storm on record? I thought it was number 2.

Yeah, I was wondering this myself... even if you don't recognize Allen's record, it's still in a three-way tie. I guess the writers and mets calling it #1 are either applying their own intensity estimates or employing some technicality (like not including the GoM or Carib) to use the catchphrase.

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1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, I was wondering this myself... even if you don't recognize Allen's record, it's still in a three-way tie. I guess the writers and mets calling it #1 are either applying their own intensity estimates or employing some technicality (like not including the GoM or Carib) to use the catchphrase.

 

1 minute ago, cmasty1978 said:

clickbait...first we have to segment the basin in a new way, then we can make the sensational claim!

Stop this ****!  Really, it makes you look foolish and clutters the thread!

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1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, I was wondering this myself... even if you don't recognize Allen's record, it's still in a three-way tie. I guess the writers and mets calling it #1 are either applying their own intensity estimates or employing some technicality (like not including the GoM or Carib) to use the catchphrase.

 

1 minute ago, cmasty1978 said:

clickbait...first we have to segment the basin in a new way, then we can make the sensational claim!

The tweet was from the twitter account for the NOAA Satellites Public Affairs office.

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA
CLOSING IN ON THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 64.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES
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