lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You ask this question every day with every model run. How about finding out for yourself. You got your answer the 1st time. All you need to do is do some simple math to figure out when each cycle comes out from that answer. I Apologize, I will lurk more, post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raine1212 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 28 minutes ago, Wow said: With this type of landfall how far in would tornado's come in inland? Also, the amount of rain. New here sorry if asking in the wrong area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 What say ye LakeEffectKing? Your forecasting with track graphics in the past have been second to none. Don't mean to call you out just curious. "Top-Notch" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 https://twitter.com/la1ere/status/905403980968333313 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: What say ye LakeEffectKing? Your forecasting with track graphics in the past have been second to none. Don't mean to call you out just curious. "Top-Notch" LOL, thank you...I will probably throw one together later...sifting through a ton of stuff!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 https://twitter.com/CayleThompson/status/905406019211165700 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Raine1212 said: With this type of landfall how far in would tornado's come in inland? Also, the amount of rain. New here sorry if asking in the wrong area With TCs, the highest probability of tornadoes is always ahead of and to the right of the center track. With Irma's structure and angle of approach, I don't envision tornadoes being a particularly notable threat with it. Of course like everything else that could change at this range. It also depends on what synoptic features it interacts with once inland. TC remnants can and have become prolific tornado-producers when they inject a surge of moisture and vorticity into the warm sector of a mid-latitude trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: LOL, thank you...I will probably throw one together later...sifting through a ton of stuff!!! Dos Equis: "With a mere breath from his nostril the storm obeys." Be safe my friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I guess it's just me, but I can definitely see the eye scooting north of PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mweisenfeld Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Why haven't they updated the cone yet . Seems to me they don't believe the model runs and still think the trough will not be as strong pulling the system east . This is what the 5th run and still saying direct hit in Florida... The NHC also posts a forecast discussion. This morning in the discussion they talk about why they moved the cone incrementally: "The official forecast has also been shifted eastward, but out of respect for the previous forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift back to the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance. The forecast now calls for landfall in south Florida between 96-120 h. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. " http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/060854.shtmlPersonally, I learned a lot more about the weather from NWS & NHC forecast discussions that from these threads.....Sent from my SM-T550 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 It appears that the models leaning towards a Carolina landfall move Irma right along which will at least keep rainfall in the hills lower than if she was crawling and or stalling. Silver lining I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: Looks like Saint Barth's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 ST-Barth https://twitter.com/pau_lallement/status/905395560022233090 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Does anyone have photos from the airport in St Martin? Haven't seen any yet. It's literally on the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: ST-MARTIN https://twitter.com/pau_lallement/status/905395560022233090 Saint Barths...which has better construction than Saint Marteen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 42 minutes ago, Wow said: Looking rough for Hilton Head & Charleston area right now looking at the hurricane models. From there on, it's not far at all from what Hugo did coming inland so far. Most of those models have the storm going in right around Tybee/HHI. Hugo came in at McClellanville, farther N. That would be a WCS for the Charleston area. The immediate Charleston area didn't get the worst effects from Hurricane Hugo, instead the areas between the landfall and Myrtle Beach got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, Crazy4Wx said: Saint Barths...which has better construction than Saint Marteen yeah changed, it, still wrecked.. can't find much on St. Marteen right now, but caribbean hurricane network had a post that the news out of that area is grim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 4m4 minutes ago Remember GFS has north bias in day 3-5 Likely starting to influence it more. 5 days ago , model had Irma well north of where it went Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hickory Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Looks like his private island is next in the cross hairs! http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/850378/Hurricane-Irma-Richard-Branson-latest-news-Necker-Island-NHC-British-Virgin-Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: yeah changed, it, still wrecked.. can't find much on St. Marteen right now, but caribbean hurricane network had a post that the news out of that area is grim. Not surprising..Saint Marteen Dutch side is poorer than the French side...would expect bad news from the West part of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 33 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: When Irene hit New England / E NY everybody was prepared for heavy wind and rain but the way it played out was 8-12" of rain over the course of a day w/o much wind of note. It really just seemed like a really rainy day but bullet dodged. Wrong. The rain pouring out of the hills turned streams to rivers and rivers to violent churning lakes of water. The destruction was catastrophic and somehow many were caught of guard by the flooding. The rain sneaks up on you and then it's too late for those in flood prone areas who took it for granted. I had a metric sh*t ton of rain in Irene and enough wind to bring a tree down on my house. The creek below us that's rarely more than a muddy trickle was a raging beast 5-6 feet deep and it took out all sorts of backyard stuff that people didn't even consider to be at risk. The only other time I've seen it like that here was Foyd in 1999 when we got 14 inches of rain in an afternoon. That was insanity! A fair portion of my backyard ended up in my front yard but it was ok because the neighbors yard washed into mine to replace what would have been lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 32 minutes ago, Sportybx said: Why haven't they updated the cone yet . Seems to me they don't believe the model runs and still think the trough will not be as strong pulling the system east . This is what the 5th run and still saying direct hit in Florida... Because you don't significantly move a probability cone 72-84 hours out ... just based on the few model runs we see here ... and some degree of apparent model consensus just in the past 9 hours. These cones take other things into consideration including meteorological experience, judgement, climatology, and other models that we don't necessarily review in detail here. Imagine if they moved the cone eastwards, and at 12z ... a couple of major models or ensemble means shifted back west. You have to realize that the cone is an overall probability, and that further ... its position potentially affects millions of people and evacuation orders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: yeah changed, it, still wrecked.. can't find much on St. Marteen right now, but caribbean hurricane network had a post that the news out of that area is grim. Maho Beach: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 This thread is moving really fast, so my apologies if this has been covered, but St. Thomas and St. John's in the USVI really look like they are going to take a nasty hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Unfortunately with St. Martin in the eye, those areas that had offshore winds will now flip around to onshore as the system moves West. That puts Philipsburg and Maho Beach into the onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, hickory said: Looks like his private island is next in the cross hairs! http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/850378/Hurricane-Irma-Richard-Branson-latest-news-Necker-Island-NHC-British-Virgin-Island Looking at pictures of the island it seems to have some elevation to it, but not too sure if this is the best plan. https://twitter.com/richardbranson/status/905415713225146368 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just a PSA - depending on what Spaghetti Plot you are looking at and what models they include, keep in mind there are a TON of models that are based off the GFS - including HWRF and HMON, etc. etc. It can give a false impression of model consensus because the models derived from the GFS move with the GFS. The GFS has actually performed quite poorly with Irma, actually even worse than the Canadian, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Having experienced Andrew's eye wall for 4 hours, these videos are giving me flashbacks...the worst is when the winds shift around and what you thought was your good hunker down spot becomes not so good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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