Major Hurricane Irma

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, HO1088 said:

This storm reminds me of Floyd.   S FL emptied out and the storm turned.  I remember driving on I-95 and Miami was empty.   

 

The trend is your friend...

Irma is reminding me ALOT of Floyd. Thought I was the only one. 

[SnowlieSnowstormson]

[Wow]

7 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Are the 12z hurricane models out yet? I thought they always come out super early. 

[Wow]

Looking rough for Hilton Head & Charleston area right now looking at the hurricane models.  From  there on, it's not far at all from what Hugo did coming inland so far.

[bigjohndc]

20 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

First off, based off what? 

 

Second off, Matthew did eventually make landfall, and ended up causing 47 us deaths.

And near catastrophic flooding for Eastern NC.

[Buddy1987]

6 minutes ago, Wow said:

Looking rough for Hilton Head & Charleston area right now looking at the hurricane models.  From  there on, it's not far at all from what Hugo did coming inland so far.

WOW,

Absolutely catastrophic run for my parents in Daniel Island (Charleston). Hope this doesn't come to fruition. That track would be terrible with the amount of forcing and lift to generate heavy rains against the blue ridge, shear in the atmosphere, etc.. i.e. NW NC and SW VA as well

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, 4waresnowcone said:

I'm new to this so forgive my ignorance - is North Carolina susceptible to flooding? Why?

Throw 10"+ rain in a day at most places and they will be prone to flooding. 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

4 minutes ago, 4waresnowcone said:

I'm new to this so forgive my ignorance - is North Carolina susceptible to flooding? Why?

Eastern NC is as susceptible as anywhere in the country. Check out Eastern NC's flood plain map:

 

http://fris.nc.gov/fris/Index.aspx?FIPS=141&ST=NC&user=General Public

[Summey]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Throw 10"+ rain in a day at most places and they will be prone to flooding. 

18"

[4waresnowcone]

Throw 10"+ rain in a day at most places and they will be prone to flooding. 

Fair enough


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[SnoSki14]

It's not going to go OTS unless the northeast trough ends up much stronger, stays around longer, and extends much further SW. 

The furthest north this may go is SC/NC border but probably closer to GA/SC. 

[Dunkman]

6 minutes ago, 4waresnowcone said:

I'm new to this so forgive my ignorance - is North Carolina susceptible to flooding? Why?

NC has lots of barrier islands with high dune lines, etc. and so it actually takes direct hits pretty well on the coast. The problem is, especially once you get to Cape Lookout and points north, is the sound sides locations are very low and exposed and that part of the coast has lots of sounds, rivers, etc. Especially when storms approach from somewhat odd angles the winds will back up huge amounts of water in those places causing substantial flooding.

[donsutherland1]

With the GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles coming slowly into better agreement overnight, it still appears that an area running from Florida to South Carolina is at greatest risk of U.S. landfall from Irma. Also, for that reason, my thinking of a 75% probability of landfall remains unchanged.

Climatology for major hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Irma's 8 am position saw just over 70% of landfalls occur in that region. It's still too soon for me to be confident about a narrower point of landfall e.g., whether or not Irma will make landfall on the Florida Peninsula. The UKMET and ECMWF ensemble mean favor such landfall. The GFS, ECWMF and also TVCN consensus don't. For purposes of illustration, only, there are some examples of tropical cyclones that made a sharp turn just in time to avoid Florida. One example was Hurricane #2 in 1876. That's one plausible scenario, among many. It's an example, only.

There is a lower probability that landfall could occur in North Carolina. The probability of a Gulf of Mexico landfall or landfall in the Virginia-New England area has diminished further and is now very low.

Irma's satellite presentation has degraded somewhat, so I wouldn't be surprised if its maximum sustained winds have fallen from its peak. Some fluctuations in strength and weakening from interactions with land/light shear are to be expected. But the guidance and SSTs along Irma's path still favor a major hurricane at U.S. landfall (my guess is Category 4 if it makes Florida landfall or Category 3 possibly 4 if it misses the Florida Peninsula and makes South Carolina landfall).

[4waresnowcone]

NC has lots of barrier islands with high dune lines, etc. and so it actually takes direct hits pretty well on the coast. The problem is, especially once you get to Cape Lookout and points north, is the sound sides locations are very low and exposed and that part of the coast has lots of sounds, rivers, etc. Especially when storms approach from somewhat odd angles the winds will back up huge amounts of water in those places causing substantial flooding.

I see. Thanks for the detailed info. I'm in Atlanta, so I've never had to deal with any kind of flooding, and new to following wx in general. Shout out to everyone for being so helpful here.


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[lakeeffectkid383]

I might be crazy but to me I don't see any way for the southern eye wall not to hit the NE side of Puerto Rico looking at satellite. Looks like quite a few west wobbles and she needs to gain latitude fast in order for them not to at least get scraped by the southern eyeball. I hope I'm wrong. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, 4waresnowcone said:

Fair enough


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When Irene hit New England / E NY everybody was prepared for heavy wind and rain but the way it played out was 8-12" of rain over the course of a day w/o much wind of note.  It really just seemed like a really rainy day but bullet dodged. Wrong. The rain pouring out of the hills turned streams to rivers and rivers to violent churning lakes of water.  The destruction was catastrophic and somehow many were caught of guard by the flooding.  The rain sneaks up on you and then it's too late for those in flood prone areas who took it for granted. 

[Sportybx]

Why haven't they updated the cone yet . Seems to me they don't believe the model runs and still think the trough will not be as strong pulling the system east . This is what the 5th run and still saying direct hit in Florida... 

 

[LakeEffectKing]

Check out the mesovortex in the western eye/eyewall....(you can see it better if you increase the loop speed):

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-02-200-1-100

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

19 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Are the 12z hurricane models out yet? I thought they always come out super early. 

You ask this question every day with every model run.  How about finding out for yourself.  You got your answer the 1st time. All you need to do is do some simple math to figure out when each cycle comes out from that answer.

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, 4waresnowcone said:

I see. Thanks for the detailed info. I'm in Atlanta, so I've never had to deal with any kind of flooding, and new to following wx in general. Shout out to everyone for being so helpful here.


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Irene and Floyd both resulted in major flooding up and down the East coast after landfalls in the Carolinas. Locally here in NJ, the river crest after Irene beat the old record by 2 1/2 feet, a record which had stood for 27 years.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Check out the mesovortex in the western eye/eyewall....(you can see it better if you increase the loop speed):

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-02-200-1-100

 

St Maarten when they were in the eye

[Eric In NW Ohio]

5 minutes ago, 4waresnowcone said:

I see. Thanks for the detailed info. I'm in Atlanta, so I've never had to deal with any kind of flooding, and new to following wx in general. Shout out to everyone for being so helpful here.


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Atlanta had a record flood in 2009. So, be careful...if Irma were to stall and dump 10+ inches of rain in that region (not likely)...it would not be good for anyone...

[cwc]

2 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Why haven't they updated the cone yet . Seems to me they don't believe the model runs and still think the trough will not be as strong pulling the system east . This is what the 5th run and still saying direct hit in Florida... 

 

Because NHC doesn't have the luxury of posting on a nondescript weather board and flip flopping their cone based on model flip flops.  NHC has stated in the past that they make gradual cone changes.

Its bad enough that everyone focuses on the line, and not the cone, and ignores that their 5 day error is 200 nm.  If NHC shifted its cone with every model shift the public would disregard everything they post.

[NJwx85]

Irma seems to have taken a temporary jog or wobble to the WSW over the last hour or so. That's terrible news for Puerto Rico as any Southerly movement at this juncture would likely bring the Southern eyewall into San Juan.

[4waresnowcone]

Atlanta had a record flood in 2009. So, be careful...if Irma were to stall and dump 10+ inches of rain in that region (not likely)...it would not be good for anyone...

Totally understandable. I'm in the east metro area, and we don't have any flooding on record in my given area given our elevation. Regardless, I find it best to be educated. Thanks again.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

7 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

NC has lots of barrier islands with high dune lines, etc. and so it actually takes direct hits pretty well on the coast. The problem is, especially once you get to Cape Lookout and points north, is the sound sides locations are very low and exposed and that part of the coast has lots of sounds, rivers, etc. Especially when storms approach from somewhat odd angles the winds will back up huge amounts of water in those places causing substantial flooding.

Much of NC's flooding occur inland on it's many river basins. Eastern NC has many of swamp/river basins that flow into the sound/ocean. Roanoke River, Cape Fear River, Tar River, Neuse River, Pamlico River, Chowan River, Lumber River, Pee Dee, Pasquotank, Perquimans, so on and so forth.

[NJwx85]

For those wondering, another airforce plane is en route, took off a short time ago. Should be in good position for the 11AM update.

The IR appearance has definitely deteriorated somewhat from earlier before and the pressure does appear to have risen slightly, but shear remains low, and SST are only getting warmer, so Irma should easily rebound. This could also be nothing more than internal processes. 

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Why haven't they updated the cone yet . Seems to me they don't believe the model runs and still think the trough will not be as strong pulling the system east . This is what the 5th run and still saying direct hit in Florida... 

 

The tropical models aren't always the best beyond 60-72 hours.  Sometimes a blend of the GFS or Euro ensembles are best in that window and those still had many members well west of those 12Z hurricane models 

[OUGrad05]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

For those wondering, another airforce plane is en route, took off a short time ago. Should be in good position for the 11AM update.

The IR appearance has definitely deteriorated somewhat from earlier before and the pressure does appear to have risen slightly, but shear remains low, and SST are only getting warmer, so Irma should easily rebound. This could also be nothing more than internal processes. 

Shear and dry air even if small can impact a storm when its that substantial.  Rebound she might, but even if it drops to 155mph or 160mph that's a really powerful storm and shouldn't be taken lightly.

[Summey]

https://twitter.com/InfoEmerg/status/905406238560804864