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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That's nonsense LOL. Buzz sawing a few small islands isn't going to impact an organized TS let alone a fully developed CAT 5. These islands aren't exceptionally mountainous. The pressure could have slightly come up, however it looks like recon missed the center.

 recon_AF307-1211A-IRMA_dropsondes.png

Small islands...yes. Flat islands...they are not. Recon didn't miss the center. They have an impact...it's minor, but enough.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

So you think the pressure came up that much since the last pass? I don't buy it. Microwave shows an intensifying core. 

The extrapolated pressure was also up a few mb. It's quite possible. Take off one or two mb because the wind wasn't calm in the dropsonde.

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2 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said:

Small islands...yes. Flat islands...they are not. Recon didn't miss the center. They have an impact...it's minor, but enough.

Or maybe it's because 185 mph hurricanes can't maintain that intensity for long periods of time. In fact Irma is already breaking strength longetivity records in the Atlantic.

A bit of extra shear could also be the culprit. 

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11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm personally not buying the big shift East overnight. Yesterday I thought the models over corrected South and West and now I think we're seeing the opposite. If you eliminate the noise, a consensus track brings the eye onshore very close to Miami, and my reasoning hasn't changed over the past several days. Irma should cross the far Southeastern tip of Florida and then ride Northward with a secondary landfall in the Carolinas. I'm also not ready to completely wave the all clear for NYC and New England.

Keep in mind that the average NHC track forecast error is > 100 nm for a 96-hour forecast. It's still too early to have that much confidence in Irma making landfall in such a specific region.

ALtkerrtrd_noTD_sm.jpg

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3 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

Keep in mind that the average NHC track forecast error is > 100 nm for a 96-hour forecast. It's still too early to have that much confidence in Irma making landfall in such a specific region.

ALtkerrtrd_noTD_sm.jpg

Well if you weigh the various solutions over the last few days the mean points to Southeast Florida. That's why I'm picking this spot. That could change if things shift around some more.

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1 minute ago, packfan98 said:

What % chance do you give of Irma NOT making a US landfall?

I'm at around 15% chance right now, but trending higher based off the latest runs...

Probably around that or 10.  It's really tough for a system that gets west of 75W below 24N not to hit the US.  The kicking mechanism has to be perfectly timed and also strong 

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It's pathetic how people live and die by every model suite. Yesterday everyone was sure this was going to strike Cuba, and now today you have people pre-maturely jumping on the OTS train, even though none of the guidance shows this except for the awful GGEM. 

As the ULL moves out of New England, high pressure builds in behind it which forces the NNW movement. The strength of this high will determine how far up the coast Irma can make it before landfall.

59afeabaa3639.png

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1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

First off, based off what? 

 

Seconf off, Matthew did eventually make landfall, and ended up causing 47 us deaths.

Trough over the US is being modeled stronger and strong each run which is resulting in the guidance tugging Irma a bit east each run.  Climo also argues against a TC running parallel to the FL coast.  

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Trough over the US is being modeled stronger and strong each run which is resulting in the guidance tugging Irma a bit east each run.  Climo also argues against a TC running parallel to the FL coast.  

Doesn't climo also argue though that a storm in this position almost always makes a US landfall?

 

At the very least, if it gets off the north coast of Cuba, there aren't many escape options. It might not bit FL directly, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't impact the Carolinas or north east.

 

With only a few members of different ensembles showing an OTS solution I would say that 50% number is highly unlikely.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Trough over the US is being modeled stronger and strong each run which is resulting in the guidance tugging Irma a bit east each run.  Climo also argues against a TC running parallel to the FL coast.  

I can see it missing Florida, I don't see how it misses the Carolina's. Not only do you have the upper high building overhead as the ULL pulls out but you also have another trough digging into the upper mid-west which eventually captures the system. That secondary trough eventually knocks down the ridge over New England, but Irma is well inland at that point. That same ridge is responsible for why the Northeast stays so dry despite an up the coast track. Maybe that trough will trend deeper and that could open the door for a more Northeasterly track after landfall.

 

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3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Doesn't climo also argue though that a storm in this position almost always makes a US landfall?

 

At the very least, if it gets off the north coast of Cuba, there aren't many escape options. It might not bit FL directly, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't impact the Carolinas or north east.

 

With only a few members of different ensembles showing an OTS solution I would say that 50% number is highly unlikely.

Ian did some GIS analysis pre-Sandy and found that once a TC crosses 78W the odds of a US landfall are greater than 60% so that's my benchmark.  If Irma turns after 78W then I'm wrong, meh.  If Irma turns right east of 78W then I'm right, meh.

 

EDIT:  Correction 78 for 76

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Ian did some GIS analysis pre-Sandy and found that once a TC crosses 76W the odds of a US landfall are greater than 60% so that's my benchmark.  If Irma turns after 76W then I'm wrong, meh.  If Irma turns right easter of 76W then I'm right, meh.

I would like to see if it crosses 75W south of 25N what the chances are.  I'm guessing close to 85-90

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