NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Morris said: No. The satellite image doesn't update as quickly as the storm actually moves. So you think the pressure came up that much since the last pass? I don't buy it. Microwave shows an intensifying core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Eye is fully visible on TJUA radar via GRLevel Or if you hit the long range loop right here. Can easily extrapolate movement at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That's nonsense LOL. Buzz sawing a few small islands isn't going to impact an organized TS let alone a fully developed CAT 5. These islands aren't exceptionally mountainous. The pressure could have slightly come up, however it looks like recon missed the center. Small islands...yes. Flat islands...they are not. Recon didn't miss the center. They have an impact...it's minor, but enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, Crazy4Wx said: Small islands...yes. Flat islands...they are not. Recon didn't miss the center. They have an impact...it's minor, but enough. I guess we'll see, I'm sure recon will make another pass. NHC went with 918mb at 8AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 13kt winds on the drop may allow for them to take off 1-2mb from the central pressure. It's close enough to the center. Also, there hasn't been a microwave pass since about 08z, so MIMIC has to work with that 4 hour old data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: So you think the pressure came up that much since the last pass? I don't buy it. Microwave shows an intensifying core. The extrapolated pressure was also up a few mb. It's quite possible. Take off one or two mb because the wind wasn't calm in the dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 The 06z HMON misses Florida and makes landfall near the SC/GA border on Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Interesting that the 6z GEFS had a fair number of OTS members. Could the storm end up moving slow enough that the trough just kicks it out? 12z models will give us a clue whether OTS is still on the table I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said: Small islands...yes. Flat islands...they are not. Recon didn't miss the center. They have an impact...it's minor, but enough. Or maybe it's because 185 mph hurricanes can't maintain that intensity for long periods of time. In fact Irma is already breaking strength longetivity records in the Atlantic. A bit of extra shear could also be the culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'm personally not buying the big shift East overnight. Yesterday I thought the models over corrected South and West and now I think we're seeing the opposite. If you eliminate the noise, a consensus track brings the eye onshore very close to Miami, and my reasoning hasn't changed over the past several days. Irma should cross the far Southeastern tip of Florida and then ride Northward with a secondary landfall in the Carolinas. I'm also not ready to completely wave the all clear for NYC and New England. Keep in mind that the average NHC track forecast error is > 100 nm for a 96-hour forecast. It's still too early to have that much confidence in Irma making landfall in such a specific region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 What % chance do you give of Irma NOT making a US landfall? I'm at around 15% chance right now, but trending higher based off the latest runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, heavy_wx said: Keep in mind that the average NHC track forecast error is > 100 nm for a 96-hour forecast. It's still too early to have that much confidence in Irma making landfall in such a specific region. Well if you weigh the various solutions over the last few days the mean points to Southeast Florida. That's why I'm picking this spot. That could change if things shift around some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: What % chance do you give of Irma NOT making a US landfall? I'm at around 15% chance right now, but trending higher based off the latest runs... Probably around that or 10. It's really tough for a system that gets west of 75W below 24N not to hit the US. The kicking mechanism has to be perfectly timed and also strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, packfan98 said: What % chance do you give of Irma NOT making a US landfall? I'm at around 15% chance right now, but trending higher based off the latest runs... 50%...thinking it pulls a Matthew and laughs at the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The trend is your friend. With so many models trending more and more east, they are picking up on something. Let's hope this thing recurves and doesn't even touch Hatteras! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Morris said: The shear is incredibly minor and appears to be weakening at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 50%...thinking it pulls a Matthew and laughs at the US. First off, based off what? Second off, Matthew did eventually make landfall, and ended up causing 47 us deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 It's pathetic how people live and die by every model suite. Yesterday everyone was sure this was going to strike Cuba, and now today you have people pre-maturely jumping on the OTS train, even though none of the guidance shows this except for the awful GGEM. As the ULL moves out of New England, high pressure builds in behind it which forces the NNW movement. The strength of this high will determine how far up the coast Irma can make it before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Incredible shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: First off, based off what? Seconf off, Matthew did eventually make landfall, and ended up causing 47 us deaths. Trough over the US is being modeled stronger and strong each run which is resulting in the guidance tugging Irma a bit east each run. Climo also argues against a TC running parallel to the FL coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 This storm reminds me of Floyd. S FL emptied out and the storm turned. I remember driving on I-95 and Miami was empty. The trend is your friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Trough over the US is being modeled stronger and strong each run which is resulting in the guidance tugging Irma a bit east each run. Climo also argues against a TC running parallel to the FL coast. Doesn't climo also argue though that a storm in this position almost always makes a US landfall? At the very least, if it gets off the north coast of Cuba, there aren't many escape options. It might not bit FL directly, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't impact the Carolinas or north east. With only a few members of different ensembles showing an OTS solution I would say that 50% number is highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Trough over the US is being modeled stronger and strong each run which is resulting in the guidance tugging Irma a bit east each run. Climo also argues against a TC running parallel to the FL coast. I can see it missing Florida, I don't see how it misses the Carolina's. Not only do you have the upper high building overhead as the ULL pulls out but you also have another trough digging into the upper mid-west which eventually captures the system. That secondary trough eventually knocks down the ridge over New England, but Irma is well inland at that point. That same ridge is responsible for why the Northeast stays so dry despite an up the coast track. Maybe that trough will trend deeper and that could open the door for a more Northeasterly track after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Doesn't climo also argue though that a storm in this position almost always makes a US landfall? At the very least, if it gets off the north coast of Cuba, there aren't many escape options. It might not bit FL directly, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't impact the Carolinas or north east. With only a few members of different ensembles showing an OTS solution I would say that 50% number is highly unlikely. Ian did some GIS analysis pre-Sandy and found that once a TC crosses 78W the odds of a US landfall are greater than 60% so that's my benchmark. If Irma turns after 78W then I'm wrong, meh. If Irma turns right east of 78W then I'm right, meh. EDIT: Correction 78 for 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Are the 12z hurricane models out yet? I thought they always come out super early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Ian did some GIS analysis pre-Sandy and found that once a TC crosses 76W the odds of a US landfall are greater than 60% so that's my benchmark. If Irma turns after 76W then I'm wrong, meh. If Irma turns right easter of 76W then I'm right, meh. I would like to see if it crosses 75W south of 25N what the chances are. I'm guessing close to 85-90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I would like to see if it crosses 75W south of 25N what the chances are. I'm guessing close to 85-90 I edited my post because I posted 76W instead of 78W as it should be. Apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Cannot 100% confirm but looks to be from St Maarten Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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