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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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Just now, WesterlyWx said:

More and more OTS members starting to show up.

Yes, but you need to look at consensus guidance too.  The majority of globals and their ensembles, as well as the hurricane models seem to be narrowing the cone to a path just to the east of FL and then a NNW path into SC.  Obviously that isn't written in stone and Irma can certainly go ots, but we are getting into the time frame where all the players are being well sampled and the models should narrow the cone in the critical 72-96 hour period.

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Dont want to count the chickens before they hatch but if this glancing blow/graze to the East Coast of FL is to become reality, the NAM will have been the model to begin the trend yesterday with majority of other globals following it.

Eta: obviously it was out of range but had Irma sitting near Bahamas already having taken that N turn while most others were flirting with Cuba lf


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2 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

PR is just gonna miss this, but the NE coast will certainly feel the effects.  Appears the current path is ever so slightly on the left side of guidance and that Irma isn't gaining latitude all that dramatically.

 

rb-animated.gif

This loop is old.

Getting the eyewall, isn't "just missing". 

San Juan is on the Northeast coast of PR. 

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