Major Hurricane Irma

[RU848789]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Off the coast.

Yes, off the coast, whereas 12Z was firmly over Cuba...

[Snowman99]

No Cuba landfall this time, quite a bit north of previous runs.

[CamSE-Wx]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Hitting Cuba @90

Definently off the coast of Cuba

[40/70 Benchmark]

I like the GFS here...in general.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like the GFS here...in general.

Big shift there. 

[TellicoWx]

Seems like the new G4 data NHC was waiting for has tightened the track up some...GFS little further west, Euro so far North

[bobbutts]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like the GFS here...in general.

Crazy, if it turns out like 0z gfs we're talking about a a couple of miles of error between staying offshore and a raking up much of entire fl e. coast.. And really bad impact for SC.

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

Looks like it goes right over Miami @ 120 but hard to tell. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

What's your basis for this?  You've posted various flavors of this repeatedly today without any scientific reasoning.  Considering that the Euro smokes all other forecasters, human or quantitative, either back it up with sound reasoning or stop weenieing and polluting the threads.  

I've posted several times that I believe that the models overcorrected to the west, as recurvatures often occur faster and with more fervor as the forecast range decreases...especially with deep systems.

[bristolri_wx]

Jumps it off the e coast of Florida at 120

[Stebo]

Just now, TellicoWx said:

Seems like the new G4 data NHC was waiting for has tightened the track up some...GFS little further west, Euro so far North

Yeah, I don't know how either would be preferred over the other though, they both moved closer together so a compromise would be a better way of doing this forecast.

[bobbutts]

2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

What's your basis for this?  You've posted various flavors of this repeatedly today without any scientific reasoning.  Considering that the Euro smokes all other forecasters, human or quantitative, either back it up with sound reasoning or stop weenieing and polluting the threads.  

I trust 40/70's opinion on things..  If you're going after weenies there are a bunch of better candidates.

[RU848789]

Off the coast at Miami's latitude at 120 hours - that's nearly a 100 mile shift east vs. 12Z.  Huge.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Drz1111 said:

Right, except that's quantitatively proven to be wrong.  If you have a paper that establishes what you're saying, then post it, otherwise stop pulling **** out of your ass.

No need to be confrontational.

Watch and wait-

I respect your opinion.

[Kleimax]

euro looks like gfs. Track reminiscent of Matthew. This is gonna be a close one

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

Right, except that's quantitatively proven to be wrong.  If you have a paper that establishes what you're saying, then post it, otherwise stop pulling **** out of your ass.

Relax man...

No need for that garbage

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Yeah, I don't know how either would be preferred over the other though, they both moved closer together so a compromise would be a better way of doing this forecast.

Yeah I agree...a blend of the 2 is about the only way to go this far out

[csnavywx]

Extremely worrying runs for Miami and S/SE FL in general, especially with the extra data in these runs. Both major globals snap into fairly close agreement. Keep in mind, error bars are still decently large, but not the trend we would want to see to prevent massive damage. Note how the EC pretty much deepens and drastically expands the windfield through the entire slowdown and turn phase. This has been consistently forecast.

 

[Kleimax]

Euro and GFS positioning of Irma are virtually identical at 120 

[JoshM]

@ 120, Euro is maybe 50 or so miles SW from the GFS position. Hopefully we can start a trend of consistency between the two.

[Eduardo]

4 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Right, except that's quantitatively proven to be wrong.  If you have a paper that establishes what you're saying, then post it, otherwise stop pulling **** out of your ass.

Whoa take it easy!  He's a respected poster who provided a link to a more comprehensive explanation of his thoughts a few pages back: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/09/historically-intense-hurricane-irma.html

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

I think it's really important to be confrontational when people read these forums to make critical decisions.  You are making up your theory and you have no rigorous basis for it.  It may feel fun to bet on a contrarian track in the hope that you pick right and can pretend you had some skill involved, but given that you might mislead someone for your little game, I urge you to reconsider.

 

if you have some science to discuss, then discuss it.  I doubt you do.

You obviously have a vested interest down there, so good luck.

Wish you the best.

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

I think it's really important to be confrontational when people read these forums to make critical decisions.  You are making up your theory and you have no rigorous basis for it.  It may feel fun to bet on a contrarian track in the hope that you pick right and can pretend you had some skill involved, but given that you might mislead someone for your little game, I urge you to reconsider.

 

if you have some science to discuss, then discuss it.  I doubt you do.

If someone is reading these forums to make a critical decision, they have already made the wrong decision...

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Extremely worrying runs for Miami and S/SE FL in general, especially with the extra data in these runs. Both major globals snap into fairly close agreement. Keep in mind, error bars are still decently large, but not the trend we would want to see to prevent massive damage. Note how the EC pretty much deepens and drastically expands the windfield through the entire slowdown and turn phase. This has been consistently forecast.

 

The storm is so close it is scary, any further west and that eyewall runs right up the coast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Miami may very well remain west of the core....this scenario does not have to be doomsday for them, I should add.

[RU848789]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Off the coast at Miami's latitude at 120 hours - that's nearly a 100 mile shift east vs. 12Z.  Huge.  

And parallels the FL coast, and is just about to make landfall between Savannah and Charleston at hour 144.  Wow.  

[Kleimax]

144 Watch out Hilton Head

[Ralph Wiggum]

I see the Matthew track FL hugger then OTS solutions are slowly starting to pop up again in more ensembles and other spaghetti plots. With these relatively large shifts East we are seeing on op models past 12-18 hrs is it safe to say a possible hugger then OTS solution is back on the table to some degree?

Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk

[BuffaloWeather]

Euro has it run up Florida border and hits SC/Georgia line at 946.

[TellicoWx]

If you factored in climo, ensembles over all the models not just the Euro, and took into account how the Euro bias in the 5 to 8 day range seems to want to take systems to far south (especially in the winter) then the West track over Cuba was more of an outlier than it would seem. Models are a tool and you don't use one tool to complete a job.