csnavywx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 5:42 AM, LovintheWhiteFluff said: Can someone explain what this means? 14C temperature difference 915mb Expand Hurricanes are effectively heat engines. The difference between the eyewall and eye temp is a proxy for the strength of said heat engine. 14C is pretty extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 5:46 AM, TellicoWx said: Starting to wonder if a sub 900 reading is possible...as bad as it is to say, need this beast to have some land interaction before Florida if that's its final destination. Not alot over open water to slow it down with a no shear environment. Track away from Cuba is a really bad scenario. Expand It's definitely going sub-900. Many other canes reached sub 900 with less optimal conditions. Irma still has everything going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Temperature just rose 4 degrees on the island. Madness. Down to 921mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 5:48 AM, bobbutts said: Expand UNBELIEVABLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 5:46 AM, TellicoWx said: Starting to wonder if a sub 900 reading is possible...as bad as it is to say, need this beast to have some land interaction before Florida if that's its final destination. Not alot over open water to slow it down with a no shear environment. Track away from Cuba is a really bad scenario. Expand It's possible over that 30-31C bathwater near the Straits and the Bahamas. I'm not sure if it is where it's sitting right now. However, since we're already tested and exceeded MPI values a couple of times with this storm, it's really hard to tell exactly where the bottom is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Under definition would this be considered the first landfall? Barbuda is centered in the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 5:33 AM, StormChaser4Life said: The wx station deserves an award. That's remarkable Expand Made of the same material as the blue shack. In all seriousness though, incredible data from an observing station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 5:51 AM, BlunderStorm said: Under definition would this be considered the first landfall? Barbuda is centered in the eye. Expand Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Following a TON of lightning in the eye from the GOES 16 GLM https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/905307996506476544 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Temp is up 5F at the station from its low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Seems like the barometer stopped reporting on the station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 5:54 AM, Superstorm93 said: Following a TON of lightning in the eye from the GOES 16 GLM https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/905307996506476544 She's strengthening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 5:56 AM, pazzo83 said: Temp is up 5F at the station from its low. Expand That water temperature drop of 5F is impressive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 5:55 AM, Superstorm93 said: Expand Man with that you could get some epic pics of the stadium effect from the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 These radar shots with the island entirely inside the eye are incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The satellite position is off due to the parallax error. Trust the radar https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/905307873592434688 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 5:45 AM, csnavywx said: Just the differential shear stress alone would be enough to deform even a very well-reinforced building. 130kt at base vs 200kt at 800' is about a 4x differential. Expand Scary scenario to contemplate (and worthy of more discussion later if it looks like Miami will take a direct hit). We've had tornado and weaker hurricane encounters with skyscrapers in US cities, but nothing like the potential that this could bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 EURO is a hair n and stronger at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Much further off of Cuba and much more intense at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Perhaps I'm looking at this wrong, but the Euro initialized Irma at 961 MB, when its currently at 914. Is that an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Euro looking a bit NE of 12Z at 48 hours - let's see how it plays out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 6:08 AM, bristolri_wx said: Perhaps I'm looking at this wrong, but the Euro initialized Irma at 961 MB, when its currently at 914. Is that an issue? Expand No. Like wxmx mentioned earlier today, it has an intense, vertically stacked vortex at initialization, which is what's important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 6:08 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Much further off of Cuba and much more intense at 72 Expand Agreed, so far this run tracking significantly more NE than 12Z. Let's see if that translates to no Cuba hit and coming much closer to the FL east coast than west coast (which was hit for 12Z) or even missing FL altogether, like the GFS/CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Hitting Cuba @90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 6:14 AM, RU848789 said: Agreed, so far this run tracking significantly more NE than 12Z. Let's see if that translates to no Cuba hit and coming much closer to the FL east coast than west coast (which was hit for 12Z) or even missing FL altogether, like the GFS/CMC. Expand Have never bought the big Cuba impact/ GOM and west coast rider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 6:15 AM, jaxjagman said: Hitting Cuba @90 Expand Off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Like 80 mi ne this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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