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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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Just now, csnavywx said:

And there it is. This thing just won't quit. Somehow it dodged that ERC. It stabilized a bit while the outer wind max was going. Now appears that it's largely gone and is once again deepening.

I find it impressive that like every recon pass is finding cat 5 winds.  consistently 145-160 kt sfmr on everyone.  

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9 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

And there it is. This thing just won't quit. Somehow it dodged that ERC. It stabilized a bit while the outer wind max was going. Now appears that it's largely gone and is once again deepening.

Such high momentum makes things quite inertially stable. Maybe that stability has reduced the radial motion of the inner and outer eyewalls?

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2 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

Such high momentum makes things quite inertially stable. Maybe that stability has reduced the tangential motion of the inner and outer eyewalls?

That seems possible. Those two eyewalls merged pretty seamlessly over a period of a few hours on radar. That inner eyewall was incredibly strong to begin with.

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17 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

That last pass suggests that the pressure may be falling again. Looks like it is avoiding an ERC by merging the outer eyewall with the inner.

+ the lightning + the absurd pressures some models show.. I think all the evidence is there (for further strengthening).  How much can we realistically expect in terms of wind with a storm that's already made a run at #1 all time?

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3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Something like that hitting Miami with several buildings eclipsing 800' in height would be absolutely catastrophic.  My God.

Just the differential shear stress alone would be enough to deform even a very well-reinforced building. 130kt at base vs 200kt at 800' is about a 4x differential.

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