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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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2 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

That leaves a lot of folks unaccounted for – concerning. Out of curiosity, do you have a source for that number I could reference?

 

This is live reporting from ABS-TV, located in St. Johns, Antigua. They intend to keep broadcasting throughout the night, so long as it remains possible to do so.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

They need a version that's coupled to the ocean. Its uncoupled state is currently causing some issues with forecast intensity in Irma (runs with <860mb for instance).

True, but that's down the road, let's see what happens.  For the example I gave, the HMON was 13 mb off its 54 hr forecast, while the Euro was 49 mb off.

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16 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I've been following the HMON and its tracking thus far has been quite accurate.  On Sunday runs at 18z, the Euro had the pressure for 00z Wed. at 965 mb.  The HMON had the pressure at 903 mb.  Actual was 916 MB.  Their forecasted positions @ 00z were within 50 miles or so of the actual position. 

Here is the NWS/NOAA explanation of how HMON was added to the fleet in July.  Seems the NHC was impressed with its 3 year trial run, a lot of which was in the Pacific:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/scn17-45discontinue_gdflaaa.htm

What is the Mean Absolute Error you have calculated for the HMON track forecasts? So you're saying the U. of Albany verification site is wrong?  At 72 hours the ECMWF Mean Average Error is about 150 miles at 120 hours; it's over 600 miles for the HMON. 

Or, are you going by one vague anecdote? 

The HMON track forecasts were a disastrous failure for Harvey. as well.

 

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7 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

What is the Mean Absolute Error you have calculated for the HMON track forecasts? So you're saying the U. of Albany verification site is wrong?  At 72 hours the ECMWF Mean Average Error is about 150 miles at 120 hours; it's over 600 miles for the HMON. 

Or, are you going by one vague anecdote? 

The HMON track forecasts were a disastrous failure for Harvey. as well.

 

I was discussing this particular storm only.  The pressure reading differences I gave are not in dispute.

NHC's evaluation and endorsement of the new hurricane model

(HMON) through evaluation of 3-year (2014-2016) retrospective

experiments run by EMC showed the HMON model consistently showed improved

performance for track and intensity skill for the North Atlantic

and Northeast Pacific Basins as compared to the legacy GFDL

hurricane model.

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