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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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Inclusive of every model I'd still would weight the ECMFW operational and ensemble members to be "more" accurate on the track. It's not a beast it's a monster. Intensity wise Irma has already exceeded therefore draw your own conclusion to how strong it will go. One would think with this much data being digested a 12Z for three days going forth will define the goalposts.      

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Ridging building in a tad stronger.  Going to be another ugly coastal wrecker from FL through SC/NC area.

Because of this, just a few miles can mean the difference between rainbands and the eyewall, leading to another Matthew style extremely difficult forecast for the FL coast from a public safety standpoint. I would definitely error on the side of caution but what if it misses to the east like Matthew? That would leave a sour taste in the eyes of the public. Fine line EMs have to walk.

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