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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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So this is the forecast position from NHC's 11PM discussion:

INIT  06/0300Z 17.4N  61.1W  160 KT 185 MPH
12H  06/1200Z 18.1N  63.1W  155 KT 180 MPH
24H  07/0000Z 19.1N  65.9W  150 KT 175 MPH
36H  07/1200Z 20.1N  68.5W  145 KT 165 MPH
48H  08/0000Z 21.0N  71.2W  140 KT 160 MPH
72H  09/0000Z 22.0N  76.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
96H  10/0000Z 23.2N  79.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 25.0N  81.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

Looking at this, it's only showing a gain of .7N over 12 hours, but it's current heading is 285.....shouldn't the N gain be somewhat larger than .7N, assuming a fairly constant heading?

Also the first line is 06/300z and the second is 06/1200z which is 9 hours and not 12....

 

 

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1 minute ago, weatherdude888 said:

So this is the forecast position from NHC's 11PM discussion:

INIT  06/0300Z 17.4N  61.1W  160 KT 185 MPH
12H  06/1200Z 18.1N  63.1W  155 KT 180 MPH
24H  07/0000Z 19.1N  65.9W  150 KT 175 MPH
36H  07/1200Z 20.1N  68.5W  145 KT 165 MPH
48H  08/0000Z 21.0N  71.2W  140 KT 160 MPH
72H  09/0000Z 22.0N  76.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
96H  10/0000Z 23.2N  79.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 25.0N  81.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

Looking at this, it's only showing a gain of .7N over 12 hours, but it's current heading is 285.....shouldn't the N gain be somewhat larger than .7N, assuming a fairly constant heading?

That's 9 hours, given the initial of 03z.

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So this is the forecast position from NHC's 11PM discussion:

INIT  06/0300Z 17.4N  61.1W  160 KT 185 MPH
12H  06/1200Z 18.1N  63.1W  155 KT 180 MPH
24H  07/0000Z 19.1N  65.9W  150 KT 175 MPH
36H  07/1200Z 20.1N  68.5W  145 KT 165 MPH
48H  08/0000Z 21.0N  71.2W  140 KT 160 MPH
72H  09/0000Z 22.0N  76.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
96H  10/0000Z 23.2N  79.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 25.0N  81.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

Looking at this, it's only showing a gain of .7N over 12 hours, but it's current heading is 285.....shouldn't the N gain be somewhat larger than .7N, assuming a fairly constant heading?

Also the first line is 06/300z and the second is 06/1200z which is 9 hours and not 12....

 

 



The storm wobbles along it's path. Wouldn't that affect it?


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2 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

It looks like Barbuda is about to get nailed. Also, I'm not seeing the double concentric return maxima on the radar like what I saw earlier this evening.

UQmDj6s.jpg

 

That confirms why the NDBC station only has 51kt gusts.  Looks like this has a somewhat small area of highly intense winds.  Looking at that it appears 20 mi or so out from the center

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7 minutes ago, weatherdude888 said:

I've never really noticed....is it usually like that or is this an error in the 11PM discussion?

It's always like that. Initialization refers to the current model cycle not time of the NHC forecast. Therefore 12h = Initial Model cycle + 12 hours or, in this case, 0z Model cycle +12 or 12z. The NHC bulletins coincide with the following model cycles:

5 am: 6z

11 am: 12z

5 pm: 18z

11 pm: 0z

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ABS TV live streaming:

The roofs have come off of some small homes on Antigua, and a Caribbean Television transmission tower is on fire.

Winds are gusting over 50 knots. The central pressure of Hurricane Irma has been steady, and intensity shows no sign of weakening, as the storm nears the islands.

Telephone system is still intact throughout both islands

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That confirms why the NDBC station only has 51kt gusts.  Looks like this has a somewhat small area of highly intense winds.  Looking at that it appears 20 mi or so out from the center

Is that dry air entrainment I see on radar?

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1 minute ago, mempho said:

Is that dry air entrainment I see on radar?

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No, atmospheric conditions are perfect, that's why it's a cat 5. If it's weakening slightly it's just because of internal processes, although none of that is occurring right now.

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No, atmospheric conditions are perfect, that's why it's a cat 5. If it's weakening slightly it's just because of internal processes, although none of that is occurring right now.

So, is it still on the table for further strengthening during the diurnal max tonight?

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