Major Hurricane Irma

[Morris]

3 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

The 161kt drop:

Holy guacamole to have it on a dropsonde!

[Coach McGuirk]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Well, they never said it would get to 185 MPH so hard to say. 

[larrye]

49 minutes ago, senc30 said:

I was thinking that all GFS runs today had shifted some what east.

If that is the case ... and the "shifting" was anything more than "noise", then I stand corrected as far as the GFS is concerned.

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, Coach McGuirk said:

Well, they never said it would get to 185 MPH so hard to say. 

That graph is in knots, so 160 knots is 185 MPH.

[vinylfreak89]

2 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said:

Hmm, very interesting, I suspect that will change.  Looks like a touch of dry air on the west has impacted the storm a bit on the western fringes but the core is holding out strong.  Those wind speeds will ramp quickly I suspect.

that station stopped reporting a while ago. Looks to have gone offline.

[mempho]

The 167 was 3mb up. It looked like the surface due to how Tropical Tidbits is coded. If there is no surface wind report, the surface pressure does not show up.

3 mb is very close to 10 meters (isn't maximum sustained winds supposed to be a 10m, 10 second sustained wind measurement?

Question is, you drop two sondes, wouldn't you take the higher one because you're trying to sample the maximum 10 second sustained wind?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[OUGrad05]

Just now, vinylfreak89 said:

that station stopped reporting a while ago. Looks to have gone offline.

Oh, great timing!

[PortsmouthWeather]

Based off its current motion, the line shows where the center of the eye would pass.

[NavarreDon]

11:00 pm 185 mph 916 mb WNW 15 mph


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Smitty97]

2 minutes ago, mempho said:

3 mb is very close to 10 meters (isn't maximum sustained winds supposed to be a 10m, 10 second sustained wind measurement?

Question is, you drop two sondes, wouldn't you take the higher one because you're trying to sample the maximum 10 second sustained wind?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

how high are the ocean waves at that point?  probably more than 10 meters.  maybe it splashed the top of one.

[Coach McGuirk]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That graph is in knots, so 160 knots is 185 MPH.

I know.  They never said it was going to get this strong during the discussions I read.  There's little reason to believe it will lose much intensity until if/when it turns north.  There's too much energy and not much shear. 

[nwohweather]

Boy the US only chance is if this thing dives into Cuba. Other than that I don't see anyway this doesn't make landfall as a Cat 5 unless it gains latitude and hits GA/SC

[JasonOH]

4 minutes ago, mempho said:

3 mb is very close to 10 meters (isn't maximum sustained winds supposed to be a 10m, 10 second sustained wind measurement?

1mb is approximately 8m, so that is about 24m above the surface. Loosing 6 knots in the 14m down to 10m (friction) wouldn't be too surprising. 

[mempho]

how high are the ocean waves at that point?  probably more than 10 meters.  maybe it splashed the top of one.

Yep, a wave would likely be 50 feet. Just think- a single wave could have cost Irma a tie for the Atlantic record.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

NHC says "Euro all the way"

Latest center fixes from satellite imagery and the aircraft
indicate that Irma is now moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt.
A strong ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is
expected to steer Irma west-northwestward during the next couple of
days.  A large mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is
forecast to lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward
and keep Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through
Friday.  In 4 to 5 days, a small trough diving southward over
the east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of
the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward.  Some of the dynamical
models have shifted northward a bit from the previous cycle, with
the normally reliable GFS looking like a northeast outlier.  The
official track forecast leans toward the ECMWF solution.  Users are
reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the
longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and
225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively

[Jaguars]

NHC not buying GFS at all

[mempho]

1mb is approximately 8m, so that is about 24m above the surface. Loosing 6 knots in the 14m down to 10m (friction) wouldn't be too surprising. 

 

Could be- or a wave 16m high swamped the sonde before it could measure the surface. Guess we'll never know.

 

I'm actually sort of surprised this hasn't been discussed before. Also, wouldn't a sonde that did make it to 10m potentially be in a relative shelter by being between in the trough between waves?

 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

[NavarreDon]

Dr Knabb is saying G4 data will be included in the 5:00 am advisory and we may see some track differences then.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Jaguars said:

NHC not buying GFS at all

Normally reliable GFS, say wut? 

[HKY_WX]

00z NAM is really carving out a nice (albeit weak) upper low over the southern Miss Valley at hour 84. Checkout the 500mb vorticity to really see it clearly. If that trend continues, this definitely has room to trend north. The 500mb low over the New England is unseasonable for its location, and in the winter time would act to carve out a trough behind it and favor a cutoff low over the southeast. If you apply some winter time logic to this tropical pattern, you get a SECS.

[BuffaloWeather]

 

[winterymix]

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

00z NAM is really carving out a nice upper low over the southern Miss Valley at hour 84. Checkout the 500mb vorticity to really see it clearly. If that trend continues, this definitely has room to trend north. The 500mb low over the New England is unseasonable for it's location, and in the winter time would act to carve out a trough behind it and favor a cutoff low over the southeast. If you apply some winter time logic to this tropical pattern, you get a SECS.

NAM seems to have the storm scrape the east FL coast although I wonder if that is an inverted trough at 1 o'clock to the NNE of

the storm.  If so, wouldn't it track NNE?

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

euro has been all over the place but we're talking d7+ so what guidance wont be. I'm just not sure dismissing one gfs op run though, which is well within both ens envelopes, is the way to go at this lead time. 

[Hoosier]

16 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

NHC says "Euro all the way"

Latest center fixes from satellite imagery and the aircraft
indicate that Irma is now moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt.
A strong ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is
expected to steer Irma west-northwestward during the next couple of
days.  A large mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is
forecast to lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward
and keep Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through
Friday.  In 4 to 5 days, a small trough diving southward over
the east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of
the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward.  Some of the dynamical
models have shifted northward a bit from the previous cycle, with
the normally reliable GFS looking like a northeast outlier.  The
official track forecast leans toward the ECMWF solution.  Users are
reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the
longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and
225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively

I don't take it that way.  They are skeptical of the 18z GFS but lean toward the ECMWF does not necessarily mean go 100% all the way.

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

I don't take it that way.  They are skeptical of the 18z GFS but lean toward the ECMWF does not necessarily mean go 100% all the way.

That's how I took it. I took it as if they are blending the Euro with the other guidance, otherwise they would have the track over Cuba. 

[jburns]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

I don't take it that way.  They are skeptical of the 18z GFS but lean toward the ECMWF does not necessarily mean go 100% all the way.

Exactly. They end with a reminder of the average track errors.  They really don't have much more of an idea than we do.

[Jaguars]

I will be mildly surprised if GFS doesn't come back west tonight 

[bdgwx]

The NHC works with D5 forecasts and you can't really blame them for leaning towards the Euro. Afterall, in terms of Irma track forecast skill it has been annihilating everything...all other models, consensus of models, humans, etc. You name it and it's probably beating it...easily.

[Random Chaos]

Cross-section of last pass through hurricane:

 

[Hoosier]

Here is the state of the cone