Major Hurricane Irma

[Coach McGuirk]

1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Nice, nature is being allowed to happen. 2 good signs, Harvey and Irma.

Hey Chuck, been a while.  

[MillvilleWx]

14 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

If you go to TropicalTidbits and check the GFS trend over the last several runs, it has Irma in the same spot over the sw Atlantic, but the pattern over North America flops all over the place.  Expect that to continue.

This! The hurricane is being modeled fairly well IMO from now through at least once its near 55N longitude. After that, the models diverge and a lot of that has to do with the ridge positioning and strength in the Atlantic and the evolution of the trough pattern over NA. If you look at the difference between the Euro and GFS, you'll see the difference once you get out to Monday/Tuesday with regards to ridge over Atlantic. GFS leaves door open for ridge extension further to the north compared to the Euro as the Euro has a low placement off the UK by Tuesday. The end result is a further south shift in the ridge position, keeping the storm from working back north once beyond 55N longitude. GFS also exacerbates the differences with a stronger system that can bully the ridge a bit, helping to gain more latitude. 

 

 

Now check out the Euro up by the UK with the positioning of low pressure

 

 

 

As we extend beyond that, the GFS with the handling of the trough over the CONUS has been waffling back and forth with the depth and progression which would cause significant  impacts down the line with its current evolution. The closed upper features would allow for a better chance at capturing the system due to a neutral to negative orientation at H5, bringing the system, once north of 30N, closer to coast or slamming straight into the Northeast or Mid Atlantic. If the trough remains at a positive tilt, the storm would ultimately be kicked and hooked away from the East Coast, but could be captured late and slam into Canadian Maritimes. Euro with its southern track keeps the system on the southern flank of the ridge and deepening trough over the CONUS pumps the heights out over the Western Atlantic and storm will have to continue working on a west-northwest trajectory into the Northern Caribbean. The Euro is historically better at handling H5 patterns beyond 72 hours, but runs into its own problems beyond day 5/6, so worth noting that despite the "steadiness" of the Euro with the system, it can still make significant adjustments in the long term that would ultimately have major implications on the east coast impact. 

[Random Chaos]

GEFS spread as it nears the coast - 18z run:

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

4 minutes ago, larrye said:

Meanwhile, ABC Network news and CNN are already both starting to hype it - and the fact that it's a cat 3 way before a hurricane normally becomes that strong.

I'm not saying that national news will not hype it, but I expect (legitimate) mets are not model-hugging this far out.  If anything, the take-away from any "hype" should be that any interests along the east coast need to re-look at and update their contingency plans given what is going on right now in the gulf coast states.  The FEMA funds will be completely depleted after this (a lot of it taken from all the west coast floods/mudslides/wildfires) and it behooves emergency managers to be alert of the possibility.  Even if it becomes a fish storm, if it does start heading NW and recurves away from the east coast, there will still be the potential for storm surge, swells, and a ton of beach erosion (although it would happen well post-Labor Day, which would help mitigate some economic fallout at the coastal tourist sites).

[rjtysinger]

It's 9-12 days out.  Good luck to all making landfall predictions.  Hopefully it will be a recurve!

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, rjtysinger said:

It's 9-12 days out.  Good luck to all making landfall predictions.  Hopefully it will be a recurve!

I doubt it will recurve with the strong Atlantic ridge

 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, jojo762 said:

perhaps the saving grace of this run is how fast the storm speeds up as it makes landfall... either way, that would be a catastrophe. 

Actually a fast moving hurricane up the coast poleward would be bad news for the Mid Atlantic and New England for several reasons.

1.  The storm doesn't get much of a chance to weaken. 

2. Definite surge component.

3.  Take the forward speed of the hurricane and that translate back to the surface adding to the strong winds.

It would be bad depending on its angle up the coast.

[SN_Lover]

 

11 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

GEFS spread as it nears the coast - 18z run:

 

GFS converging to a location at 198 hours... it's a start...

 

 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

We can analyze individual solutions til the cows come home but the big takeaway should be that there's an unusually high chance for a landfalling US system with this one.

Yes but 11 days out is an eternity for the varying solutions on the table all are viable the next 6 days or so.  The bottom line there's a potential threat. 

[rjtysinger]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I doubt it will recurve with the strong Atlantic ridge

 

You sir may be correct! I hope not though.  I love these systems as much as the most but none of us need /want/desire this now.  I am hoping it goes back to Sea and will wait to day 2 before I assume anything

[bdgwx]

All things considered the difference between the GEFS and EPS at HR 168 isn't much. The EPS is 20N/66W and GEFS is 22N/62W for a difference of 300 miles or so.

[ice1972]

35 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

 

GFS converging to a location at 198 hours... it's a start...

 

 

That's pretty tight at hr 198 for an ensemble right?

[Coach McGuirk]

I guess it's going to depend on the strength of the cold front or if it just goes south in the gulf.

[MJO812]

0z Hurricane models are north of 18z

[Mountain_Patch]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

0z Hurricane models are north of 18z

Very hugo track

[Amped]

CNN already hyping IRMA.  This is going to be a long 10 days.I might need to stay off social media to avoid seeing the viral day7+ GFS maps showing a 920mb low in every city along the east and gulf coast being shared by the clueless general public.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Amped said:

CNN already hyping IRMA.  This is going to be a long 10 days.I might need to stay off social media to avoid seeing the viral day7+ GFS maps showing a 920mb low in every city along the east and gulf coast being shared by the clueless general public.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/31/us/hurricane-irma-forecast-weather/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_latest+(RSS%3A+CNN+-+Most+Recent)&utm_content=Yahoo+Search+Results

[Sportybx]

I know everything is on the table here . If it comes up the coast and hits NYC metro area what are the chances this thing stays at a 3/4 . Also worst landfall for NYC area is central to northern jersey ? 

[Mountain_Patch]

1 minute ago, Sportybx said:

I know everything is on the table here . If it comes up the coast and hits NYC metro area what are the chances this thing stays at a 3/4 . Also worst landfall for NYC area is central to northern jersey ? 

way too far out my friend. I'd be more afraid I lived in Palm Beach, Florida, or Charleston, S.C. than if I was in NYC.

[Jim Marusak]

11 minutes ago, Amped said:

CNN already hyping IRMA.  This is going to be a long 10 days.I might need to stay off social media to avoid seeing the viral day7+ GFS maps showing a 920mb low in every city along the east and gulf coast being shared by the clueless general public.

makes me wonder sometimes where we'd be if we didn't have CNN, Fox News, or MSNBC. maybe in a slightly better place.

that all being said, I know online, I'm keeping my jets cool on Irma until she gets within 1 day of the northern Antillies. hopefully by then the models will have a better handle on how she'll turn north.

[Mountain_Patch]

Just now, Jim Marusak said:

makes me wonder sometimes where we'd be if we didn't have CNN, Fox News, or MSNBC. maybe in a slightly better place.

that all being said, I know online, I'm keeping my jets cool on Irma until she gets within 1 day of the northern Antillies. hopefully by then the models will have a better handle on how she'll turn north.

Joe Bastardi is already calling for a a five and landfall essentially. 

[SnowGoose69]

21 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

I know everything is on the table here . If it comes up the coast and hits NYC metro area what are the chances this thing stays at a 3/4 . Also worst landfall for NYC area is central to northern jersey ? 

It's virtually impossible to get a Cat 4 in New York.  A 3 is possible but still extremely rare.  CNJ would be worst or somewhere into New York bay.  It's generally hard to get a track that's moving NNW or NW that far north unless you have some sort of deep low capturing it like you did with Sandy.  Generally storms will want to have a slight NNE component in a typical setup which favors Long Island more.  It's probably 5-7 more days before we can seriously worry about a Long Island or New England landfall 

[jojo762]

1 minute ago, Mountain_Patch said:

He was first on harvey publicly so right now he's got a lot of cred with the press he'll being doing hits for the next 7 days nonstop. 

This is going to be the most hyped up hurricane ever, given what just happened with Harvey. But given what just happened, it may fall short of that hype no matter what, especially if it steers clear of a major metro area. Not good for the weather community credibility. 

[Mountain_Patch]

Just now, jojo762 said:

This is going to be the most hyped up hurricane ever, given what just happened with Harvey. But given what just happened, it may fall short of that hype no matter what, especially if it steers clear of a major metro area. Not good for the weather community credibility. 

Imagine the hype if it goes into virginia. 

[friedmators]

I know everything is on the table here . If it comes up the coast and hits NYC metro area what are the chances this thing stays at a 3/4 . Also worst landfall for NYC area is central to northern jersey ? 

TCHP blows up here. It will need to be flying north like it stole it for us to get that kinda storm.


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[Wow]

40 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

Very hugo track

Way too early to say that. Hugo was further south based on that trajectory.

[SN_Lover]

I'm just glad we are monitoring something with variability. Models have come a long way, it's almost boring short-range forecasting. 

[friedmators]

I'm just glad we are monitoring something with variability. Models have come a long way, it's almost boring short-range forecasting. 

Yeah my two 24-36" blizzard warnings over the last 3 years would like to disagree.


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[Mountain_Patch]

Message me if you'd like to tell me I'm wrong, but it would be wrong of me to use my personal opinion to derail an informative thread. 

[StormChazer]

Definitely just wobbled there to the west in the last frame.