Major Hurricane Irma

[Random Chaos]

Seems to have weakened slightly - cloud tops have warmed, it is slightly asymetric now, and recon is only finding about 175mph winds (as oppossed to the 185-190mph earlier).

[senc30]

1 minute ago, larrye said:

Unless I'm mistaken, it is only the 18z GFS that has shifted a bit east. Why would the cone change significantly just due to one model having moved east? What if it's an outlier or a anomaly? There would need to be a general trend, or a good solid reason to think the 18Z GFS was "more right" than everything else.

I was thinking that all GFS runs today had shifted some what east.

[Upper Level LOL]

1 minute ago, Random Chaos said:

Seems to have weakened slightly - cloud tops have warmed, it is slightly asymetric now, and recon is only finding about 175mph winds (as oppossed to the 185-190mph earlier).

ERC most likely underway

[lakeeffectkid383]

2 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Seems to have weakened slightly - cloud tops have warmed, it is slightly asymetric now, and recon is only finding about 175mph winds (as oppossed to the 185-190mph earlier).

It had to come at some point. I also noticed that it's looking a bit less annular and a bit more like convenctive banding especially on the out edges of the storm

[JasonOH]

The concentric eyewalls are visible on radar.  Some recon passes show the spike of the second eyewall. They are super close together so it could be a very clean cycle.

[HKY_WX]

To me, the most populated location that's going to get destroyed is St Martin. They are in the path of the eye itself. Hard to imagine what they will go through tonight and into the morning. 

[SnowGoose69]

It looks like the Barbuda NDBC station may already be dead actually

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

To me, the most populated location that's going to get destroyed is St Martin. They are in the path of the eye itself. Hard to imagine what they will go through tonight and into the morning. 

I could see it going slightly north of them but they're still going to get hit really hard in the eye wall it seems

[Windspeed]

Recent scan. Keep in mind backside echoes not returning well in eastern eyewall.

[socar2001]

I know usually its understood that the northeastern quadrant of a storm is the worst.  is that still true with this storm?  looks to be equally strong in all quads.

[Radtechwxman]

6 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

It had to come at some point. I also noticed that it's looking a bit less annular and a bit more like convenctive banding especially on the out edges of the storm

I just noticed that. Western side almost seems to be contracting or caving in some. Weird. Eye still looks good and symmetric. I would think land interaction with those tiny islands would do it

[friedmators]

10 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said:

ERC most likely underway

ERC analysis doesnt show anything significant

[bobbutts]

4 minutes ago, socar2001 said:

I know usually its understood that the northeastern quadrant of a storm is the worst.  is that still true with this storm?  looks to be equally strong in all quads.

It's the front right that has the winds + forward speed = max winds.  Subtract the forward speed on the left side. 

[Jaguars]

Know it's supposed to veer a little north but PR really looks like it could be under the gun.

[Rjay]

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Jaguars said:

Know it's supposed to veer a little north but PR really looks like it could be under the gun.

I think they're going to be good.  That thing is getting real W-NW movement

[friedmators]

Microwave is rather impressive.

[jburns]

6 minutes ago, socar2001 said:

I know usually its understood that the northeastern quadrant of a storm is the worst.  is that still true with this storm?  looks to be equally strong in all quads.

You can't use compass directions. It seems the NE is the worst because we mostly are concerned with hurricanes moving north up the east coast.  Think of it as a vehicle you are driving. Look straight ahead and then over at your front seat passenger.  You just scanned the strongest quadrant.

[Jaguars]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think they're going to be good.  That thing is getting real W-NW movement

That's good

[mfgmfg]

This Air Force plane has made a loop in the eye its last 3 passes

[Radtechwxman]

Yea Irma has a good nw jog to it now. Barbuda about to get into some real bad conditions

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Raw T# on the steady rise again. Back to 6.8.

 

[Bostonseminole]

161KNOTS SURFACE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL, SO SHOULD BE 185MPH AT 11

[BuffaloWeather]

[mempho]

161KNOTS SURFACE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL, SO SHOULD BE 185MPH AT 11

Wait- didn't we just have 167 knots at the surface just a few minutes ago?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[JasonOH]

The 161kt drop:

[winterymix]

20 minutes ago, jburns said:

You can't use compass directions. It seems the NE is the worst because we mostly are concerned with hurricanes moving north up the east coast.  Think of it as a vehicle you are driving. Look straight ahead and then over at your front seat passenger.  You just scanned the strongest quadrant.

On the weather map, how do they model a wife screaming, "If you are going to drive like a manic,

let me out of the car right now!"

[SnowGoose69]

Crazy how Barbuda only 60 miles or so from the eye are only gusting 40kts

[JasonOH]

Just now, mempho said:

Wait- didn't we just have 167 knots at the surface just a few minutes ago?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

The 167 was 3mb up. It looked like the surface due to how Tropical Tidbits is coded. If there is no surface wind report, the surface pressure does not show up.

[OUGrad05]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Crazy how Barbuda only 60 miles or so from the eye are only gusting 40kts

Hmm, very interesting, I suspect that will change.  Looks like a touch of dry air on the west has impacted the storm a bit on the western fringes but the core is holding out strong.  Those wind speeds will ramp quickly I suspect.