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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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2 hours ago, TPAwx said:

Lots of population clusters all around Florida where there is one bridge out and they will bottleneck if too many wait until late in the game. 

Florida peeps should continue to monitor the NHC track and local officials for evac guidance depending on their specific area.

I agree people should monitor NHC guidance and the Evac of the keys due to the difficulty as far as infastructure. Just seems to me alot of people in Sc/Nc have let their guard down due to all the attention from the media on FL as a definite LF location. Nothing is set in stone and changes will likely occur in the track. 

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Just posting this for posterity. As an aviation enthusiast, this breaks my heart. Poor Maho Beach :(

 

2017/09/06 00:24
TNCM 060012Z 0600/0624 04014KT P6SM VCSH SCT018 
FM060300 01025G35KT P6SM -SHRA VCSH SCT015 BKN060 OVC080 
FM060500 33055G75KT 6SM -SHRA SCT025 BKN050 
FM060700 300140G160KT 6SM -SHRA BKN015 OVC030 
FM061100 26090G120KT 6SM -SHRA BKN015 OVC030 
FM061700 20055G75KT 6SM -SHRA SCT025 BKN050

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12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

After another day of watching Irma, I still think that the Florida-South Carolina area remains at the highest risk of U.S. landfall from Irma (though the larger area at some risk of landfall extends from the Florida Panhandle to the Outer Banks of North Carolina; outside that area the risk seems low). I note the 18z GFS, but it seems to be an outlier both among its ensembles and the other guidance.

 

 

I mostly agree, but still think Florida will be spared the direct hit.  Once the models can fully grasp the strength of the trough along the east coast, IRMA will head north.

GA, SC , NC I feel currently have the best chance of getting a direct hit. 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It looks like Antigua may end up on the good side of the eye...especially if it further jogs north.  Barbuda needs a serious north movement and St. Kitts isnt looking good either

Is there a 'good side of the eye' in a Cat5 storm?

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3 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Just posting this for posterity. As an aviation enthusiast, this breaks my heart. Poor Maho Beach :(

 

2017/09/06 00:24
TNCM 060012Z 0600/0624 04014KT P6SM VCSH SCT018 
FM060300 01025G35KT P6SM -SHRA VCSH SCT015 BKN060 OVC080 
FM060500 33055G75KT 6SM -SHRA SCT025 BKN050 
FM060700 300140G160KT 6SM -SHRA BKN015 OVC030 
FM061100 26090G120KT 6SM -SHRA BKN015 OVC030 
FM061700 20055G75KT 6SM -SHRA SCT025 BKN050

I've written some doozy TAFs, but this takes the cake. I think I'd be forecasting a lower vis, but I doubt it terribly matters. Not like there's going to be a way to verify it with a sensor when it's been blown away.

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San Juan FCST seems way overdone unless this ends up much further south.

05014KT P6SM VCSH SCT025
     BKN080
  FM060600 07020G30KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 BKN080
  FM061300 01025G35KT P6SM -SHRA VCSH SCT030 BKN060
  FM061600 33045G65KT 6SM -SHRA SCT025 BKN050
  FM062300 27060G80KT 6SM -SHRA SCT015 BKN030

 

 

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