jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 NHC stayed with 185mph... 916mb at 8pm AST advisory. Bellwethering, the stubborness of these places sometimes lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Awesome stadium effect. Incredible storm. The eye is so well defined. Still seems to be holding its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: Considering the pressure of Irma is about 917-919 doesn't that means it's just above the surface or am I totally off? 934mb surface at the eyewall where the dropsonde was - not center of the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: How high off the ground is that, 1000ft? Lower, with the pressure as low as it is. It is barely off the surface, hard to give an exact number with pressure uncertain at that location though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 It appears the 192mph was 3mb above the surface. Surface at 937mb (based on a tweet) data at 934mb. It's about 24 meters off the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Lower, with the pressure as low as it is. It is barely off the surface, hard to give an exact number with pressure uncertain though. Found an online calculator: 915mb is 178m with a surface pressure of 934mb and temp of 24.4C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Move this if needed but Anguilla has cut all power to the island and cell service is already out. Getting some updates via sat phone. They are very scared now from what I was told Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, Random Chaos said: Found an online calculator: 915mb is 178m with a surface pressure of 934mb and temp of 24.4C. Yeah so just a hair under 600' I mean we are talking not too much above skyscraper levels here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Irma's causing a huge traffic jam for ships right now - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Updates from Antigua http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah so just a hair under 600' I mean we are talking not too much above skyscraper levels here. Below - from wikipedia: The U.S. city of Miami, Florida has the country's third-tallest skyline with over 300 high-rises, 70 of which stand taller than 400 feet (120 m), mainly according to Emporis,[1] SkyscraperPage, and The Skyscraper Center, which is the online database of the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat. The tallest building in the city is the 84-story Panorama Tower, which rises 868 feet (265 m) in Miami's Brickell district and on March 24, 2017 surpassed all other buildings in height. It is to be completed by the end of 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 So are we tossing out the 18z GFS run? The GEFS looks to support the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, cdhay17 said: So are we tossing out the 18z GFS run? The GEFS looks to support the Euro. They support the Euro but the EPS so really we are still lost beyond 72-84 probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, cdhay17 said: So are we tossing out the 18z GFS run? The GEFS looks to support the Euro. Can somebody post the 18z GEFS, I've looked back through the last several pages and can't find any images of it. If I missed it I apologize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Recorded radar loop over the past couple hours: http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/radar/ (click on the Guadeloupe/Martinique link) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: Irma's causing a huge traffic jam for ships right now - Would be a bad jam indeed, if those ships were to scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Can somebody post the 18z GEFS, I've looked back through the last several pages and can't find any images of it. If I missed it I apologize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Can somebody post the 18z GEFS, I've looked back through the last several pages and can't find any images of it. If I missed it I apologize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Clearly 2 camps in the 18z GEFS. More northerly faster solutions or the slower westerly solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 good lord, Irma's ring of convection is unlike anything i have ever seen right now. praying hard for antigua and barbuda. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rbtop-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Here's an interesting record, tweeted by NOAASatellitesPA. Apparently there has never been a 160 kt hurricane outside of the Caribbean and Gulf sections of the Atlantic. -- NOAA Satellites PA @NOAASatellitePA 8 hours ago UPDATE: NOAA's #GOES16 shows #HurricaneIrma, the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic -- outside the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Recorded radar loop over the past couple hours: http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/radar/ (click on the Guadeloupe/Martinique link) Is it just me or does it look like that things still heading just about due west from the beginning of the loop to the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just an observation, the GOES-16 imagery is technically "non-operational," but they seem to be using it in an official capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The Guadeloupe radar appears to show two concentric return maxima. Oddly the HMON had been simulating that structure for awhile now. But, the microwave imagery doesn't really suggest that an ERC is taking place or is imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Clearly 2 camps in the 18z GEFS. More northerly faster solutions or the slower westerly solutions. True, but yet they nearly all end up in upstate SC. The UL working it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 The 18z HWRF misses Cuba, 12z hit Cuba. Sub 920mb landfall in the Keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, bdgwx said: The Guadeloupe radar appears to show two concentric return maxima. Oddly the HMON had been simulating that structure for awhile now. But, the microwave imagery doesn't really suggest that an ERC is taking place or is imminent. I would trust microwave over radar for a storm of this size and magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahofan Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Move this if needed but Anguilla has cut all power to the island and cell service is already out. Getting some updates via sat phone. They are very scared now from what I was told On St. John, they are taking cell towers down. In fact, I believe that was supposed to happen around 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Is it just me or does it look like that things still heading just about due west from the beginning of the loop to the end? The radar I am looking at (Caribbean composite) shows about 0.1 deg latitude gain from beginning to end of loop. That should put the center very close to Barbuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Is it just me or does it look like that things still heading just about due west from the beginning of the loop to the end? Looks WNW. Use PR as a marker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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