Chinook Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, winterymix said: Intuition suggests that it can't intensify much more. This storm has an extremely asymmetric relationship with the surrounding airmasses. At some point, it will encounter cold upwelling, friction with islands and eventual dry air ingestion. An old adage says that the pinnacle is the most unstable place to be as it is the easiest place to fall off. It's true, after all these years of watching the weather, there have been few Category 5s. The historical record has about 32 Category 5's in the Atlantic, since 1924. So that's about 0.34 Category 5 hurricanes are expected in any given year. They don't usually last over 24 hours being classified as a Category 5. Hurricane Ivan had the most hours at Category 5, since 2000, that was 60 hours. Other ones have been a mere 24 hours or less. Isabel was 42 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, cmillzz said: Aren't the 0z and 12z runs supposed to be more reliable than the 6z and 18z runs? I've heard that a while ago, not sure if it's true anymore. Modeling has improved since those days, errors tend to not be as large as they once were. In addition, these 18/06z runs are ingesting Hurricane Hunter data as well as extra balloon soundings from Midwest WFOs. These should be better than a typical 18/06z data ingest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcb72 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Does anyone know if Allen's 190 mph advisory was backed by recon or was it estimated? About to be dethroned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 192mph surface wind per dropsondeDid it just break the record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 18z GEFS don't really support the op. Shows the uncertainty but in a way, a good thing as it would've been alarming to see a mass shift that way. I see 1 fish member also. Anything still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 wow... just wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 as mentioned yesterday - On 9/4/2017 at 7:17 PM, Sophisticated Skeptic said: you guys need to look at all aspects, not just what the models are saying. If the disturbance in the gulf forms into a TD (which it currently looks like it's close to doing) , the moisture flowing out would strengthen the trough along the east coast more than expected...and could cause a further north trend of Irma. You can already see on satellite and water vapor, moisture is flowing out towards that trough...and all the way up east coast. also, these little mini-land interactions (Islands) will assist Irma to expand outwards in time. Just like all hurricanes do when interacting with land. Typhoon Haiyan needs to be remembered here. It was the same intensity when hitting the Phillipines . The residents there said "we knew big hurricane was coming, but didn't know it was going to be Tsunami...if they would of said Tsunami, we would of left". That's basically what a hurricane like this creates...a 25 foot Tsunami. (surge) People think surge comes in slowly.. but it doesn't. It truly is like a Tsunami, and areas along the coast,that are getting a direct hit should be preparing for such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Did it just break the record? If they take this as genuine and upgrade to 195mph based on this, we pass Hurricane Allen, which holds the current record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Looks like a huge number of the 18z GEFS individuals support the 12z Euro OP. Which had little support from ITS ensembles! Gotta love that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said: If they take this as genuine and upgrade to 195mph based on this, we pass Hurricane Allen, which holds the current record. Guess the storm is not going through it's weakening phase just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like it's going to make a run at 200mph tonight. The 18z HWRF looks a touch North, possibly going to miss Cuba. 916mb at hr 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, LandofLincoln said: Guess the storm is not going through it's weakening phase just yet Yea, thought the concentric eyewalls would knock it down, but Irma just doesnt seem to care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Latest pass 161FL/156 SFMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Meanwhile in fantasyland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Her eye is a fraction of the size of PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: If they take this as genuine and upgrade to 195mph based on this, we pass Hurricane Allen, which holds the current record. Why would they not take it as legit? Never seen a dropsonde observation be disregarded before IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, jojo762 said: Why would they not take it as legit? Never seen a dropsonde observation be disregarded before IIRC. I dont know, but you gotta play it safe and just throw that in there as a qualifier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 18z GEFS don't really support the op. Shows the uncertainty but in a way, a good thing as it would've been alarming to see a mass shift that way. Yeah, looks to me like more than a little suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 How are you guys getting this info from the recon flights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcb72 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, TriPol said: How are you guys getting this info from the recon flights? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Casualbrain said: Here's the pic... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, Chinook said: It's true, after all these years of watching the weather, there have been few Category 5s. The historical record has about 32 Category 5's in the Atlantic, since 1924. So that's about 0.34 Category 5 hurricanes are expected in any given year. They don't usually last over 24 hours being classified as a Category 5. Hurricane Ivan had the most hours at Category 5, since 2000, that was 60 hours. Other ones have been a mere 24 hours or less. Isabel was 42 hours. Thank you. I'm one of many here that are waiting for the definitive signal to find out which path Irma takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Barring a last minute shift, looks like Barbuda is about to take a direct hit from this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: I see 1 fish member also. Anything still possible. The idea with the ensembles is to give weight to the cluster, to the mean. Having one member OTS doesn't suggest you weight that outcome as equally possible. The mean track for 18z is landfall SW Fla and then zig zag up the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The 226mph winds at 915mb on the dropsnode is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, Chicago Storm said: The 226mph winds at 915mb on the dropsnode is ridiculous. How high off the ground is that, 1000ft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Inbound 154-156kt surface winds (NW): 231230 1725N 06024W 6971 02706 9576 +082 +047 059149 152 134 045 00 231300 1724N 06023W 6974 02656 9522 +085 +046 059158 161 151 063 00 231330 1723N 06022W 6955 02640 9472 +088 +048 057153 161 154 066 00 231400 1723N 06021W 6962 02582 9406 +098 +050 062136 143 156 061 03 231430 1722N 06020W 6989 02504 9345 +115 +052 066123 135 154 003 03 231500 1721N 06020W 6954 02503 9290 +132 +053 070108 122 138 000 03 Outbound 153kt surface winds (SE): 232400 1705N 06011W 6965 02492 9259 +166 +086 230109 118 133 004 00 232430 1704N 06010W 6986 02537 9369 +119 +087 228132 133 153 032 03 232500 1703N 06009W 6937 02658 9453 +105 +080 227135 137 153 064 00 232530 1702N 06008W 6980 02683 9551 +087 +076 230135 138 147 063 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The 226mph winds at 915mb on the dropsnode is ridiculous. Considering the pressure of Irma is about 917-919 doesn't that means it's just above the surface or am I totally off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 60.5W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM E OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES They kept the winds at 185 for 8 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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