Major Hurricane Irma

[CarbondaleWX]

29 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It has it strengthening into landfall. Unbelievable.

Harvey strengthening into a category 4 right before landfall was a bit of a shock but when the waters are as warm as they are, nothing should be a surprise anymore.

[jojo762]

SFMR of ~140kts (~160mph) in the southwestern eye wall. Looks like we have cat 5 winds in all four quadrants of the eye wall. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Let's get back to the storm discussion.  We're doing our jobs keeping this thread as smooth as possible.  It's extremely active and we ask that you keep this thread about the storm and any general information you may have about potential impacts in your back yard or on the models/hurricanes in general, take that to the other threads we have set up in the Forum.

[WxNoob]

A long ways away but the 18z GFS brings the low from Canada back into the picture.  That's three of its last four runs it's tried to phase that energy into the remnants of Irma.

[lakeeffectkid383]

3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

SFMR of ~140kts (~160mph) in the southwestern eye wall. Looks like we have cat 5 winds in all four quadrants of the eye wall. 

What was their peak winds in the latest pass in any of the quadrants? 

[jojo762]

145kt SFMR in the NE eye wall, 160kt FL winds... extrapolated pressure ~914mb.

[LandofLincoln]

So question, and excuse my ignorance... but, if an ERC is underway, can the storm continue to deepen and have deeper pressure, but the winds just slow down a touch... or would both likely weaken during that process?

Only reason I ask is because it seems winds may have lowered ever so slighty, but the pressure seems to still be dropping. Just didn't know exactly how that may work during an ERC.

[wxmx]

1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

What was their peak winds in the latest pass in any of the quadrants? 

151 FL/151 SFMR

 

 

Current pass is 156FL/143 SFMR

[Windspeed]

Interestingly, the most consistently modeled feature between the ECMWF and the GFS besides Irma's sharp right turn has been the 500mb cutoff over the southern Tennessee Valley and the 250 mb upper trough that dives down over it as Irma moves north. Whether Irma is over Florida or over the Bahamas, the evolution of that mid-to-upper feature resolves an eventual bend back towards the NW late in the modeled northerly track. Granted, as has been said many times before, those features are "iffy" at best to resolve beyond simulation this far out. However, the overwhelming consistency and placement is uncanny not to notice regardless of the many changes in Irma's modeled initial right turn. That cutoff if resolved IRL will be a huge player after Irma does turn north.

[jojo762]

Extrapolated pressure drop corresponded perfectly this pass with the lessening of the winds also FWIW, no differences between lowest pressure drop and lowest wind speed. 

[jburns]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Let's get back to the storm discussion.  We're doing our jobs keeping this thread as smooth as possible.  It's extremely active and we ask that you keep this thread about the storm and any general information you may have about potential impacts in your back yard or on the models/hurricanes in general, take that to the other threads we have set up in the Forum.

In addition, there is no need for posts describing the banter and asking for mods to do something.  There are several mods active in here and a few hundred posts have been deleted. Sometimes it takes a few minutes but posting to complain about an off topic post only results in two off topic posts. We will get to them.

[wxmx]

917mb dropsonde

[yoda]

 

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, wxmx said:

917mb dropsonde

Looks like the pressure is beginning to correlate with the wind speed.

[jojo762]

000
URNT12 KWBC 052302
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL112017
A. 05/22:45:25Z
B. 17 deg 07 min N
  060 deg 08 min W
C. NA
D. 137 kt
E. 255 deg 9 nm
F. 331 deg 138 kt
G. 252 deg 11 nm
H. 917 mb
I. 14 C / 2447 m
J. 24 C / 2454 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO20-45
N. 12345 / NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 1011A IRMA OB 12
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 156 KT 060 / 13 NM 22:48:32Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 080 / 05 KTS

[Jaguars]

Would love 18z to be right for FLA selfishly (wrong for Carolinas).  Total hunch, I think it ends up a bit of an anomaly run.  Unless we get a similar run at 0z

[Chinook]

based on a best estimate of 197K (-76C) , and a nearby weather balloon sounding (northern Lesser Antilles) I think the top of the clouds are over 14800 meters (48556 feet) high

[jojo762]

Eye of Irma is either going to shoot the goal posts between Barbuda and Antigua or make landfall on Barbuda... Either way both are going to feel the full force of a category 5 hurricane, as both will likely be in the eye wall unless it turns a bit more north in a hurry.

[Hoosier]

18z GEFS don't really support the op. Shows the uncertainty but in a way, a good thing as it would've been alarming to see a mass shift that way.  

[Thor]

Hmon also starting to show a move north

[winterymix]

2 minutes ago, Chinook said:

based on a best estimate of 197K (-76C) , and a nearby weather balloon sounding (northern Lesser Antilles) I think the top of the clouds are over 14800 meters (48556 feet) high

Intuition suggests that it can't intensify much more.   This storm has an extremely asymmetric relationship

with the surrounding airmasses.  At some point, it will encounter cold upwelling, friction with islands and

eventual dry air ingestion.

  An old adage says that the pinnacle is the most unstable place to be

as it is the easiest place to fall off. 

[TPAwx]

3 minutes ago, Jaguars said:

Would love 18z to be right for FLA selfishly (wrong for Carolinas).  Total hunch, I think it ends up a bit of an anomaly run.  Unless we get a similar run at 0z

It was a much less nauseating run for FLA, but the only good outcome is OTS for everyone.  GEFS should be out shortly and will show where the op is placed relative to the members, and will be yet another data point.  Can rarely go against the Euro, so its another late night waiting for the 0z run.

[RU848789]

14 minutes ago, jburns said:

In addition, there is no need for posts describing the banter and asking for mods to do something.  There are several mods active in here and a few hundred posts have been deleted. Sometimes it takes a few minutes but posting to complain about an off topic post only results in two off topic posts. We will get to them.

Is it ok to say thanks for a job well done?  I'm sure these threads are difficult to monitor and edit and being a moderator is often a thankless job.  

[hlcater]

192mph surface wind per dropsonde

[jburns]

8 minutes ago, Jaguars said:

Would love 18z to be right for FLA selfishly (wrong for Carolinas).  Total hunch, I think it ends up a bit of an anomaly run.  Unless we get a similar run at 0z

Those of us in the Carolinas have seen that track many times before.  That's what makes it a bit more concerning than it otherwise would be. Especially since the usual means to avoid the hit, escape to the east, is not in the cards this time.

[NJwx85]

Looks like a huge number of the 18z GEFS individuals support the 12z Euro OP.

[cmillzz]

Aren't the 0z and 12z runs supposed to be more reliable than the 6z and 18z runs? I've heard that a while ago, not sure if it's true anymore.

[jburns]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Is it ok to say thanks for a job well done?  I'm sure these threads are difficult to monitor and edit and being a moderator is often a thankless job.  

OK but next time say it in the banter thread or I will delete it.

[Jim Martin]

[jojo762]

2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

192mph surface wind per dropsonde

Holy....