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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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Concentric eyewalls on hurricane hunter radar:

 

That radar imagery does not show much of a moat at all between IEW and OEW. The IEW looks very intense with excellent structure. I am not so certain this couldn't just continue to intensify a little more or at least maintain intensity for quite a while. The diameter of the IEW may even have to shrink some before it begins to show signs of weakening.
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3 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Those models don't use bogus vortex techniques. Nothing wrong with assimilated data, hence track modeling should be fine.

Again though the overall consensus is that the core stays north of Cuba. Gotta see what this trough in the east does this weekend and if it is strong enough to erode some of the ridge or if the ridge will hold its ground

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Again though the overall consensus is that the core stays north of Cuba. Gotta see what this trough in the east does this weekend and if it is strong enough to erode some of the ridge or if the ridge will hold its ground

Again, yes, but my point wasn't that it was headed for Cuba, it was to try to explain why the NHC had a track just north of Cuba. 

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4 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
12 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:
Concentric eyewalls on hurricane hunter radar:

 
 

That radar imagery does not show much of a moat at all between IEW and OEW. The IEW looks very intense with excellent structure. I am not so certain this couldn't just continue to intensify a little more or at least maintain intensity for quite a while. The diameter of the IEW may even have to shrink some before it begins to show signs of weakening.

Per recon, 20nm and 45nm concentric eyewalls:

000
URNT12 KWBC 052157
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL112017
A. 05/21:38:37Z
B. 17 deg 04 min N
  059 deg 54 min W
C. 700 mb 2399 m
D. 144 kt
E. 119 deg 9 nm
F. 223 deg 145 kt
G. 123 deg 11 nm
H. 920 mb
I. 10 C / 3062 m
J. 21 C / 3069 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO20-45
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 1011A IRMA OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 151 KT 313 / 17 NM 21:42:58Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 325 / 10 KTS
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