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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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2 hours ago, Papa Joe said:

Surge for the Keys is somewhat self-limiting as the surge will hit the reef first. In the 1935 storm, they had 40-50' waves at the reef, and what did make it to land was enhanced because a lot of the cuts and creeks were plugged up by railroad. That said, a 20' storm surge will wipe most anything off the keys. 

 

Even Donna only had about a 6' surge when it passed over Marathon (per the water marks in house I was living in). 

 

I lived in Marathon in the late 1960s. People will stay. (but per the MCSO, the evacuation is for everyone and starts tomorrow morning at 7.

The reef does not protect the bay side of the keys. 

Wilma passed on bayside of the Keys, and there was substantial storm surge from the middle keys to the lower keys. Marathon was awash, and a great deal if damage and losses were from the surge. This was water that moved on the Florida Bay side, no reef offshore to dampen any water movement, just a large, gently sloping body of water open to the GOM. 

Source: my back yard  

 

 

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7 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Enlighten me on why the intensity is so important for track? It's a deep ridge, meaning all levels of the troposphere are more or less "blowing" in the same direction/speed. We are not talking about an easterly wave embedded in the trade winds.

Just saying those models may not be reliable with track if they are off on intensity as well. I'm not retarded. I know the overall steering flow with the ridge and trough. I'm strictly talking model reliability. The overall clustering of models has it north of Cuba

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Yes, also it's harder to kill an inner eyewall if it's big. ERCs on small eyes are usually pretty quick and seamless. OTOH, eyewall replacement of big eyes are a pain. Ask Matthew.

 

Isabel had an ERC with an eye this big and it never really filled in or clouded over. The inner wall was rapidly absorbed into the larger wall and remnant cloud debris got squashed to the surface layer the same day. Though Isabel did drop to just below Cat 5 intensity for a brief period of time, it reacquire that intensity the following day. These things are unpredictable. Irma also has a large and stable core like Isabel but it's anyone's guess as fluctuations are just part of the process.

 

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Just saying those models may not be reliable with track if they are off on intensity as well. I'm not retarded. I know the overall steering flow with the ridge and trough. I'm strictly talking model reliability. The overall clustering of models has it north of Cuba

Those models don't use bogus vortex techniques. Nothing wrong with assimilated data, hence track modeling should be fine.

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21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

When systems are this strong the ERCs can really knock them down.  If it undergoes a long duration one it could drop down below 140mph IMO

And you can correct me if I am wrong because this is just my opinion but with a cat 5 cane just about any interaction with land, or ingesting a bit of dry air would have a larger effect than it would on say a cat 2.  For a cat 5 everything has to be just about perfect or it begins to weaken.

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Just now, jburns said:

And you can correct me if I am wrong because this is just my opinion but with a cat 5 cane just about any interaction with land, or ingesting a bit of dry air would have a larger effect than it would on say a cat 2.  For a cat 5 everything has to be just about perfect or it begins to weaken.

I think it was Patricia which underwent an ERC 2-3 years ago and went from 180 down to maybe 115-120?

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I think it was Patricia which underwent an ERC 2-3 years ago and went from 180 down to maybe 115-120?

That pinhole eye was super unstable though, Irma's core is well established and the eye is fairly large. These larger eyes are more resilient in my experience when it comes to replacing them.

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