Keysfins Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 hours ago, Papa Joe said: Surge for the Keys is somewhat self-limiting as the surge will hit the reef first. In the 1935 storm, they had 40-50' waves at the reef, and what did make it to land was enhanced because a lot of the cuts and creeks were plugged up by railroad. That said, a 20' storm surge will wipe most anything off the keys. Even Donna only had about a 6' surge when it passed over Marathon (per the water marks in house I was living in). I lived in Marathon in the late 1960s. People will stay. (but per the MCSO, the evacuation is for everyone and starts tomorrow morning at 7. The reef does not protect the bay side of the keys. Wilma passed on bayside of the Keys, and there was substantial storm surge from the middle keys to the lower keys. Marathon was awash, and a great deal if damage and losses were from the surge. This was water that moved on the Florida Bay side, no reef offshore to dampen any water movement, just a large, gently sloping body of water open to the GOM. Source: my back yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 18z GFS at 54 in SE Bahamas moving WNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Decent number of individual Euro ensemble members had a Cuba hit. Let's not act like it was a clean miss. Yea I mean cmon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: When systems are this strong the ERCs can really knock them down. If it undergoes a long duration one it could drop down below 140mph IMO Agree....thereafter similar pressures may yield tamer winds, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 ERC or no ERC - still pretty stable eye with a slight jog N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Nice little jog north by 18z GFS vs. 12z through 54 hours. Could be enough to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 It appears that the GFS will stay far away from Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Back to the bahamas with the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcb72 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 916.4 mb first pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Irma entering Central Bahamas at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, wxmx said: Enlighten me on why the intensity is so important for track? It's a deep ridge, meaning all levels of the troposphere are more or less "blowing" in the same direction/speed. We are not talking about an easterly wave embedded in the trade winds. Just saying those models may not be reliable with track if they are off on intensity as well. I'm not retarded. I know the overall steering flow with the ridge and trough. I'm strictly talking model reliability. The overall clustering of models has it north of Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 At hr 72 the GFS is raking the SE Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Yes, also it's harder to kill an inner eyewall if it's big. ERCs on small eyes are usually pretty quick and seamless. OTOH, eyewall replacement of big eyes are a pain. Ask Matthew. Isabel had an ERC with an eye this big and it never really filled in or clouded over. The inner wall was rapidly absorbed into the larger wall and remnant cloud debris got squashed to the surface layer the same day. Though Isabel did drop to just below Cat 5 intensity for a brief period of time, it reacquire that intensity the following day. These things are unpredictable. Irma also has a large and stable core like Isabel but it's anyone's guess as fluctuations are just part of the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Gfs is pretty far north on the 18z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, tcb72 said: 916.4 mb first pass How high did they measure the winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Concentric eyewalls on hurricane hunter radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: How high did they measure the winds? 151 knots. Surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcb72 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: How high did they measure the winds? 151 kts FL, 151 kts SMFR but it might be flagged (01, i forget the flag designators) both in NW eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Just saying those models may not be reliable with track if they are off on intensity as well. I'm not retarded. I know the overall steering flow with the ridge and trough. I'm strictly talking model reliability. The overall clustering of models has it north of Cuba Those models don't use bogus vortex techniques. Nothing wrong with assimilated data, hence track modeling should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: When systems are this strong the ERCs can really knock them down. If it undergoes a long duration one it could drop down below 140mph IMO And you can correct me if I am wrong because this is just my opinion but with a cat 5 cane just about any interaction with land, or ingesting a bit of dry air would have a larger effect than it would on say a cat 2. For a cat 5 everything has to be just about perfect or it begins to weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, tcb72 said: 151 kts FL, 151 kts SMFR but it might be flagged (01, i forget the flag designators) both in NW eyewall Not flagged. Also there was a 147 and a 140 kts reading, leading credence to the observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, jburns said: And you can correct me if I am wrong because this is just my opinion but with a cat 5 cane just about any interaction with land, or ingesting a bit of dry air would have a larger effect than it would on say a cat 2. For a cat 5 everything has to be just about perfect or it begins to weaken. I think it was Patricia which underwent an ERC 2-3 years ago and went from 180 down to maybe 115-120? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Well, don't think we have to worry about this run hitting Cuba lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: ERC Let go of your mind... Feel... breathe.. it's going through PR and Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think it was Patricia which underwent an ERC 2-3 years ago and went from 180 down to maybe 115-120? It wasn't that as much as interacting with the Mexican W Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I think it was Patricia which underwent an ERC 2-3 years ago and went from 180 down to maybe 115-120? That pinhole eye was super unstable though, Irma's core is well established and the eye is fairly large. These larger eyes are more resilient in my experience when it comes to replacing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 So this GFS run.. Yeah. Anyone find this possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 So this GFS run.. Yeah. Anyone find this possible?Details?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.