Crazy4Wx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said: 5 PM track update is west enough for a Cuba landfall. Edit: and PR... Kinda worst case track...destroys San Juan, parts of Cuba, Miami gets hit with massive surge, keys gets destroyed...and it's still a major cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck said: Never has such a symmetrical storm moved so far north. It's going to hit Puerto Rico. Population 3.47 million Dropsondes from the NOAA-GIV mission on the edge and outside the storm do not support a direct hit with the eyewall, imo. The southward component of steering that was there earlier today is diminishing -- now confined to a shallow layer near 350mb, whereas the northward component (at lower levels) has expanded, hence the reason the storm has gained latitude in the past 6-9 hours. Remaining southward component will continue to diminish. Direct hit not looking likely to me at the moment. Possible, but not likely. Best way I could envision is via an ERC causing an asymmetric convective structure long enough for it to wobble off course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: The satellite loops of this are incredible... for posterity... https://i.imgur.com/oLufaew.gif Right, this storm is going to skirt the northern islands.. no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Barbuda, St Barths, Saint Maarten and Anguilla are just going to get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 NHC suggest an ERC may be starting up. That could save them from the most extreme scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, Crazy4Wx said: Kinda worst case track...destroys San Juan, parts of Cuba, Miami gets hit with massive surge, keys gets destroyed...and it's still a major cane. I had a trip to Islamorada to do some Yellowtail fishing in November. This track at the current forecasted intensity, means the Florida Keys, from Key Largo to Key West would be offline for 4-6 months. The ensemble mean seems to wants to take the storm up through Biscayne Bay, scrape the coast like Jeanne and Frances in 2004 as a 4, and then slam into Savannah and(or) Hilton Head. This high tailing it into the gulf scenario seems less likely right now. Latest model runs show anything from a direct hit on Miami, to a scrape like the EM. this will be a East Coast of Florida storm, not a gulf one IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Bit too early to be making landfall calls that west. Quite a few models keep the center offshore. It is a possible but not set in stone. They will def be feeling hurricane impacts though. I'm honestly not sure why NHC nudged the cone west more when some models are shifting east Consensus of the UKmet, Euro, GFS and CMC...3 out of 4 have a Cuba landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like an ERC on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, skierinvermont said: Looks like an ERC on radar. Good for the islands, sucks from a meteorological standpoint. Was hoping this could at least tie the record for highest Atlantic basin winds if not break it, think that's unlikely to happen now with this ERC starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, wxmx said: Consensus of the UKmet, Euro, GFS and CMC...3 out of 4 have a Cuba landfall 4 days out...shift of 30 miles and it doesn't touch Cuba. We will know Thursday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Give it a 50% chance of hitting Puerto Rico directly. eventually goes into the Gulf and maybe around New Orleans. Watch videos of round hurricanes and how they move, interact with land etc. NHC WNW to NW curvy line kind of looks like a TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 days out...shift of 30 miles and it doesn't touch Cuba. We will know Thursday eveningTotally agree. And Most euro members dont hit Cuba. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, wxmx said: Consensus of the UKmet, Euro, GFS and CMC...3 out of 4 have a Cuba landfall EPS do not. At this time frame ensembles > op runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Radar of Irma from the hurricane hunter that just took off: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Give it a 50% chance of hitting Puerto Rico directly. eventually it goes into the Gulf and around New Orleans. Watch videos of round hurricanes and how they move, interact with land etc. The NHC WNW to NW curvy line kind of looks like a TS. so...into the Florida Strait, or crash course with Cuba? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, Blue Ridge said: so...into the Florida Strait, or crash course with Cuba? Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: EPS do not. At this time frame ensembles > op runs Decent number of individual Euro ensemble members had a Cuba hit. Let's not act like it was a clean miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 When systems are this strong the ERCs can really knock them down. If it undergoes a long duration one it could drop down below 140mph IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said: 4 days out...shift of 30 miles and it doesn't touch Cuba. We will know Thursday evening 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: EPS do not. At this time frame ensembles > op runs 11 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Totally agree. And Most euro members dont hit Cuba. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk So get the op and ensembles consensus, and you get a track similar to the NHC's (north of the Euro, Ukmet and CMC), which is the point I was trying to make when replying to the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, wxmx said: Consensus of the UKmet, Euro, GFS and CMC...3 out of 4 have a Cuba landfall GFS didn't. But the other three did. But some of those models also initialized way off on Irma's current intensity so I really wouldn't bite on anything yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: When systems are this strong the ERCs can really knock them down. If it undergoes a long duration one it could drop down below 140mph IMO Yes, also it's harder to kill an inner eyewall if it's big. ERCs on small eyes are usually pretty quick and seamless. OTOH, eyewall replacement of big eyes are a pain. Ask Matthew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Radar of Irma from the hurricane hunter that just took off: https://mobile.twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/905177860071194626 P.S. I've seen some people embedding tweets - how do you do that? Am guessing the forum doesn't convert a tweet using the mobile link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Radar of Irma from the hurricane hunter that just took off: https://mobile.twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/905177860071194626 P.S. I've seen some people embedding tweets - how do you do that? Mobile links don't convert. Take the "mobile." portion off the URL and you get this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 120 knot SFMR recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: GFS didn't. But the other three did. But some of those models also initialized way off on Irma's current intensity so I really wouldn't bite on anything yet Enlighten me on why the intensity is so important for track? It's a deep ridge, meaning all levels of the troposphere are more or less "blowing" in the same direction/speed. We are not talking about an easterly wave embedded in the trade winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 18z GFS - Irma misses PR to the north at 30... misses Haiti/DR to the north at 36 and 42 by a good amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 NAM at 84 isn't a top tool of the NHC or of any of the operational meteorologists here. I'm posting the 500 mb pattern simply to show that Key Largo to Miami is vulnerable simply based upon eventual orientation of the east-based ridge and west-based ridge. Nail-biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 To the many people that are lurking. I'm sure your main question is "when will we get an idea where this will make landfall in the states?" Answer: Thursday night into Friday morning. Also keep following along here it may make a difference in whether you leave your home early enough. Just a friendly PSA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Sometimes ERC can take a very long time however Irma seems to bang them out without flinching. We've already had I believe 2 in the last 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4waresnowcone Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Virgin Island live streams are starting to show some activity. https://codepen.io/alexneises/full/brJvLp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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