Bruinsyear Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 It looks great on IR and Sat. However the outflow is not quite as impressive and there is a more banding effect, even though the core is blowing up. To me, I wouldn't be surprised if the winds have peaked at the moment but the windfield is expanding significantly over the next few updates. The scary part is many models showing explosive strengthening after Cuba but before FL. Pressures dropping below 900. Lets hope the wind/pressure ratio decreases or this would be the storm of all storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Tropical Tidbits hasn't updated all afternoon with regards to recon, I assume they are currently in the storm and it's just an update issue? I saw he posted something on Twitter that due to the high volume of users the website was running slow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bruinsyear said: It looks great on IR and Sat. However the outflow is not quite as impressive and there is a more banding effect, even though the core is blowing up. To me, I wouldn't be surprised if the winds have peaked at the moment but the windfield is expanding significantly over the next few updates. The scary part is many models showing explosive strengthening after Cuba but before FL. Pressures dropping below 900. Lets hope the wind/pressure ratio decreases or this would be the storm of all storms. Which models are showing that besides the unrealistic GFS and HMON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 The NHC website is also running extremely slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Perfect MW, with no hints of ERC whatsoever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 It will probably hit Puerto Rico. Maybe the strongest hurricane to interact with land on this side of the globe. If someone is familiar with San Juan, I want to go. 4 hour flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: It will probably hit Puerto Rico. Maybe the strongest hurricane to interact with land on this side of the globe. If someone is familiar with San Juan, I want go and see what happens. San Juan is located on the Northeastern end of the island. The airport is located about twenty miles to the East near Isla Verde. It's beautiful place. Further East you will find the rain Forrest. I really don't think the eyewall comes onshore in PR, but I agree that it's going to be a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: Which models are showing that besides the unrealistic GFS and HMON? Euro showed a rapid drop in pressure between Cuba and FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Euro showed a rapid drop in pressure between Cuba and FL. Not dropping sub 900 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, andyhb said: Not dropping sub 900 mb. My apologies, thought you meant rapid strengthening between cuba and FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Not dropping sub 900 mb.Probably not but I would not speak in absolutes Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Is there a point they would not fly into the core? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: San Juan is located on the Northeastern end of the island. The airport is located about twenty miles to the East near Isla Verde. It's beautiful place. Further East you will find the rain Forrest. I really don't think the eyewall comes onshore in PR, but I agree that it's going to be a close call. A storm like this doesn't turn north all of a sudden. It's still pretty far south and WNW would be direct hit. Could someone just show up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Strongest storm in almost 250 years bearing down on the islands with advisories for another TC on its tail. Not a lot of hyperbole can capture that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: A storm like this doesn't turn north all of a sudden. It's still pretty far south and WNW would be direct hit. Could someone just show up? I was going to say that this storm is still south of the latitude of PR it's going to be really difficult for this not to be a direct hit for some part of PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Strongest storm in almost 250 years bearing down on the island with advisories for another TC on its tail. Not a lot of hyperbole can capture that. We also now have a TD in the Bay of Campeche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 59.8W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.35 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 pm NHC Update: Irma retained Category 5 status with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: Not dropping sub 900 mb. True, but we know about how models handle pressure (goes both ways). These models showing 860-870 mb look pretty absurd but I don't think it would be entirely unreasonable to get something under 900 mb between Florida and Cuba, IF land interaction is not significant. We have at least 1 known case of that happening there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Strongest storm in almost 250 years bearing down on the islands with advisories for another TC on its tail. Not a lot of hyperbole can capture that. Are there any records of any time in the even distant past of there ever being a 200 mph TC in the Atlantic Basin? I can't think of a single one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: A storm like this doesn't turn north all of a sudden. It's still pretty far south and WNW would be direct hit. Could someone just show up? It's already a bit north of the forecast track line for the past 6 hours -- which is a miss for PR as it is. They'll probably get scraped by the core, but we're talking the SW and SE quads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Per forecast disco, Meteo France radar in Caribbean shows an outer eyewall developing, "likely the beginning stages of an eyewall replacement." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, csnavywx said: It's already a bit north of the forecast track line for the past 6 hours -- which is a miss for PR as it is. Never has such a symmetrical storm moved so far north. It's going to hit Puerto Rico. Big place, population 3.47 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The satellite loops of this are incredible... for posterity... https://i.imgur.com/oLufaew.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 I know it's next to worthless for tropical systems, but the track of the NAM looks reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Latest cone, alittle too far to the west imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 PM track update is west enough for a Cuba landfall. Edit: and PR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Never has such a symmetrical storm moved so far north. It's going to hit Puerto Rico. Big place, population 3.47 million. Bit too early to be making landfall calls that west. Quite a few models keep the center offshore. It is a possible but not set in stone. They will def be feeling hurricane impacts though. I'm honestly not sure why NHC nudged the cone west more when some models are shifting east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PortsmouthWeather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: We also now have a TD in the Bay of Campeche. Since this storm developing in the Bay of Campeche doesn't seem to be previously part of the equation, wouldn't it theoretically pump up the heights to the east in the Gulf of Mexico and possibly cause the expected north turn of Irma to occur sooner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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