Chinook Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 A few outer bands getting into Guadeloupe, Dominica. Also note. Later tonight, the hurricane will be closer to TJUA radar (United States). Check NWS radar page for Puerto Rico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 18z tracks for Sept 5thVery few touch Cuba. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Last few frames of MW imagery show the NW turn pushing past 17 degrees lat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 12z EPS members..close to 1/3 actually miss land wide right. Mean matches up well with GEFS mean...FWIW. Also, Op is a western outlier among members. Sorry if the link doesn't show below, might have to purchase sites model page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 May not be worth it to get too caught up in these details at this point...but on the 12z Euro ensemble map above, the mean crosses 60W at about 17.4N. However, based on extrapolation from a loop of the satellite images over the past few hours, it looks like Irma will cross 60W at about 17.2N. In other words, Irma already appears to be slightly south of the 12z Euro ensemble mean track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Last few frames of MW imagery show the NW turn pushing past 17 degrees lat.Bad news for the Op Euro trackSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 It is going to be close for Antigua as far as ending up on the strong or weak side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Bad news for the Op Euro track Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk And Florida. Good news for Cuba though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Anything news/images on the recon for the 5pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 40 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: Here is current 12Z versus 18Z. 18Z has shifted West again, 18z really likes Tennessee for an Irma graveyard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: And Florida. Good news for Cuba though. Still way too early. Some tracks actually have a bend back to the west for a time north of Hispaniola which then pushes into Cuba. But agree, prolonged interaction with Cuba might be better for FL in terms of dealing with a weaker storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, jojo762 said: It's looking like at least Barbuda and St. Maarten take a direct hit. Can't imagine the devastation they'll have from it, building codes or not. Not sure how they can deal with 180+ mph wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: 18z really likes Tennessee for an Irma graveyard... Right over my area too, just picked up 2 inches of rain with localized flooding today so that won't be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Irma could contend for the Atlantic record during the diurnal period tonight...wow! Other than history telling us it's highly unlikely, is there any significant reason to think that this couldn't happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Would be strongest storm ever recorded in any of the Atlantic basin ever correct, need to beat 190mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It's looking like at least Barbuda and St. Maarten take a direct hit. Can't imagine the devastation they'll have from it, building codes or not. Not sure how they can deal with 180+ mph wind. Might be the strongest hurricane to make landfall there since the 1780 storm (which was the deadliest in the Atlantic on record), although obviously records of exact wind speeds back then are sketchy at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: Right over my area too, just picked up 2 inches of rain with localized flooding today so that won't be good. Dies IMBY. Storming like crazy today. I really hope this thing doesn't enter the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonelaureliano1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 https://codepen.io/alexneises/full/brJvLp/ An assortment of webcams from the Virgin Islands, should be getting interesting soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Based on current direction of movement, size of eyewall and its direct interaction with the northern Leewards, a combined population of well over 100,000 people may experience the eyewall of a Category 5 hurricane. Unless some unforeseen rapid weakening occurs, this will be the first Category 5 impact on the Lesser Antilles since Hurricane Hugo and the first in specifically the northern Leewards since accurate intensity estimates exist in the satellite era. This really is a dire situation. Building codes of structures are going to be a big deal and hopefully people on those islands will have taken shelter in those concrete structures with the best reinforcement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Latest eps track density Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 hour ago, OUGrad05 said: That's for 18Z? Extra launches yesterday and today (every 6 hours) to nail down Trof for modelling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, andyhb said: Might be the strongest hurricane to make landfall there since the 1780 storm (which was the deadliest in the Atlantic on record), although obviously records of exact wind speeds back then are sketchy at best. Anguilla will be in the NE quadrant, and close to the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Tropical Tidbits hasn't updated all afternoon with regards to recon, I assume they are currently in the storm and it's just an update issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Broward and Miami-Dade County Public Schools to close Thursday and Friday in advance of Hurricane Irma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Tropical Tidbits hasn't updated all afternoon with regards to recon, I assume they are currently in the storm and it's just an update issue?Tidbits has been under very heavy server load due to the situation and some parts of the site do not seem to be updating. Levi has had to disable some functions though I am not sure about recon data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 FWIW, the development of stronger outer banding today as the storm has hit the moister environment of the Caribbean should put to rest any theories that this is a true annular hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Georges found a way to hit PR , Hispaniola, Cuba and emerge as a cat 1/2 (1998) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Tropical Tidbits hasn't updated all afternoon with regards to recon, I assume they are currently in the storm and it's just an update issue? Only recon up right now is Gonzo which is the gulfstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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