Major Hurricane Irma

[OUGrad05]

2 minutes ago, Casualbrain said:

It will be interesting to see what the next initialization incorporating the special midwestern trough radiosonde data does.

That's for 18Z?  

[Jaguars]

2 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

 

then heads into Northern NC.

appreciate it

[bdgwx]

It appears to me the main driver in the quicker tug north on the GFS is the upper level trough is a little more potent. They both place Irma favorably in the right entrance region of an anticyclonically curving jet streak, but the GFS does it sooner and with more bravado. If the interaction with the trough doesn't increase wind shear too much then both the GFS and Euro are highly favorable for a strong cyclone at least in terms of the upper air pattern. Land interaction would obviously be a mitigating factor while SSTs are a supporting factor. 

[wxmx]

1 minute ago, weaponxreject said:

First post, thanks for the insight and education. Hoping to make a career out of this!!

Out of curiosity though... As was mentioned a page or two back, the latest Euro initialized with an ~40mb strength higher than where Irma is now. What, if any, impacts would that have on the forecasted track, especially beyond 72hrs?

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Negligible. It's still depicted as a well stacked, deep cyclone, steered by a deep ridge, so that translates to having almost no impact on track.

[weaponxreject]

Negligible. It's still depicted as a well stacked, deep cyclone, steered by a deep ridge, so that translates to having almost no impact on track.

Thank you!! I know not to read too much into the longer range intensity forecasts with some of the models, I just wasn't sure at this stage what bearing current intensity played on forecasting possible paths or intensities.

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[Windspeed]

We're not going to be able to resolve this Cuba/no Cuba/how much of Cuba issue for a while, but it should not affect anybody's preparations at this point.  Plan for the potential of a category 4-5 hurricane and keep watching models and forecasts.

Yes debating semantics on model differences with respect to shapes of coastlines or land interaction with Cuba shouldn't outweigh the greater uncertainty that exists in potential track with this hurricane. We really have no better idea where or when the hard right turn will occur with Irma than the past 24 hours. And that is still likely to remain a huge uncertainty for several more days. Models may still shift greatly as interaction between troughs and the ridge evolves and is modeled with less degree of errors in placement and strength. The NHC track may change drastically with respect to potential landfall with Cuba and Florida even within 72 hrs due to basic geography. The best guess is a major hurricane impacting anywhere along the Florida peninsula to the Carolinas.

[DCAlexandria]

Of course and Cuba's such a thin island that a 20 mile difference will make all the difference.

This. People thinking a Cuba landfall is def going to happen are nuts.


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[bdgwx]

7 minutes ago, Suncat said:

Something not being discussed here is the influence the development of a low near Missouri will have on steering Irma north then northwest.  The timing of the northward turn will depend on the timing of the development and strengthening of this low. NWS Raleigh is leaning toward a faster turn to the north with the hurricane tracking along the eastern coast of Florida and then a turn to the northwest between Georgia and South Carolina.  At this point, some of the models may not taking this low into consideration.

Correct. This is what's making the upper level jet streak north of Irma bend northwest. It's this anticyclonic shaping of the jet streak that's acting like a giant vacuum cleaner sucking Irma north and westward. It also makes for a great outflow channel that might help Irma stay strong assuming the wind shear doesn't encroach too for into the core.

[SnoSki14]

Instead of bickering about 5 day model tracks, which will continue to change every run, the big story right now is Irmas track over the northern Leeward Islands, I wonder how they will fare about this.

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

This. People thinking a Cuba landfall is def going to happen are nuts.


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Taking into consideration model errors, one can neither expect Cuban landfall with certainty nor rule it out.

[McQuackleton]

Someone posted this cam earlier. But you can see the clouds coming in. http://www.soggydollar.com/webcam

[Hazey]

Anyone have a link to a frontline weather station that will be the first to feel the fury of Irma? and a radar station?

Thanks

[ncskywarn]

Beautiful GOES 16 loop storm centered 30 second imagery. 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-100

[zippity]

Mandatory evacuations issued for the Florida Keys:

http://wfla.com/2017/09/05/florida-keys-to-issue-mandatory-evacuations-ahead-of-irma/

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Anyone have a link to a frontline weather station that will be the first to feel the fury of Irma? and a radar station?

Thanks

One link that was posted earlier today: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=TAPA&num=48&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Anyone have a link to a frontline weather station that will be the first to feel the fury of Irma? and a radar station?

Thanks

http://stormcarib.com/

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles

[SnowGoose69]

You wonder why they couldnt have waited another day to evacuate the Keys.  If this ends to slamming into Cuba as long as the Euro shows hypothetically it probably comes out as a Cat 1 and you have another dangerous what if one really does happen one day and people don't evacuate 

[Crazy4Wx]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You wonder why they couldnt have waited another day to evacuate the Keys.  If this ends to slamming into Cuba as long as the Euro shows hypothetically it probably comes out as a Cat 1 and you have another dangerous what if one really does happen one day and people don't evacuate 

Well, won't the surge still be devastating for the keys regardless of the eye coming on shore in northern Cuba?

 

[Ginx snewx]

Barbuda cman buoy looks like eye will go right over it

https://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/BARA9.html

[thess]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You wonder why they couldnt have waited another day to evacuate the Keys.  If this ends to slamming into Cuba as long as the Euro shows hypothetically it probably comes out as a Cat 1 and you have another dangerous what if one really does happen one day and people don't evacuate 

It's a visitor evac that starts tomorrow.

I assume they are staging it (visitors, then residents) to ease the bottlenecks on those tiny little roads. 

(Unless there have been significant upgrades in the highways there--haven't been in at least ten years.)

Plus, Keys residents can be remarkably stubborn about evacs. Source: family members in Marathon and Key West who rode out Wilma. 

[gravitylover]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You wonder why they couldnt have waited another day to evacuate the Keys.  If this ends to slamming into Cuba as long as the Euro shows hypothetically it probably comes out as a Cat 1 and you have another dangerous what if one really does happen one day and people don't evacuate 

Because there is one single lane road to get everyone out.

[NJwx85]

It's a little hard to tell but it looks like a lot of EPS members keep Irma safely North of Cuba.

[Chinook]

I don't want to overplay this, but Hurricane Irma could have some impact on San Juan, Puerto Rico. The eyewall is unlikely to be right on Puerto Rico, so that's good. The metro area according to Wikipedia is:

 • Urban 2,148,346

 • Metro 2,350,126

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Crazy4Wx said:

Well, won't the surge still be devastating for the keys regardless of the eye coming on shore in northern Cuba?

 

I'm not sure.  Georges I thought was a 2 when it passed west of Key West and the surge wasn't awful.  I think you need to have a high end 2 or low 3 at least 

[bobbutts]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You wonder why they couldnt have waited another day to evacuate the Keys.  If this ends to slamming into Cuba as long as the Euro shows hypothetically it probably comes out as a Cat 1 and you have another dangerous what if one really does happen one day and people don't evacuate 

I don't have inside knowledge but it has to take a long time to get everyone off since there's only one road connecting the mainland.

Last thing you want is to be stuck on it when the storm strikes.

[Jtm12180]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You wonder why they couldnt have waited another day to evacuate the Keys.  If this ends to slamming into Cuba as long as the Euro shows hypothetically it probably comes out as a Cat 1 and you have another dangerous what if one really does happen one day and people don't evacuate 

Simply put, time. You will potentially have the southern third of Florida evacuating in the next 3-4 days 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You wonder why they couldnt have waited another day to evacuate the Keys.  If this ends to slamming into Cuba as long as the Euro shows hypothetically it probably comes out as a Cat 1 and you have another dangerous what if one really does happen one day and people don't evacuate 

Part of the problem is that the only way out is a narrow road that's only one lane in most spots. Also in many places the roadway is at sea level. They probably also are trying to do a systematic evacuation so that they can gradually get people out rather than all at once.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm not sure.  Georges I thought was a 2 when it passed west of Key West and the surge wasn't awful.  I think you need to have a high end 2 or low 3 at least 

The surge even without a direct hit is going to be tremendous with all that water flowing west on the NE Side or IRMA

[Sportybx]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You wonder why they couldnt have waited another day to evacuate the Keys.  If this ends to slamming into Cuba as long as the Euro shows hypothetically it probably comes out as a Cat 1 and you have another dangerous what if one really does happen one day and people don't evacuate 

Then again what if it don't .  Then you lose a day while everyone from south Florida starts moving on out . Better to be safe then sorry . Might pay off in the end . 

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

I don't have inside knowledge but it has to take a long time to get everyone off since there's only one road connecting the mainland.

Last thing you want is to be stuck on it when the storm strikes.

Especially since most of the road is right on the ocean.