RU4Real Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The 12Z turns Irma almost due west between hours 72 and 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like it's over Cuba for a minimum of 18-24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 CUBA crushed on the 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Could someone explain why the latest Euro would initialize Irma at 962? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Turns North hrs 117-120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Terrible run for the FL Keys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Chinook said: regarding the latest Vortex recon message: the surface wind detected is 160 kt, the max flight level wind is 151 kt. Is this something to be expected? I was thinking that the flight level winds were always at least 10% greater than the surface wind. That's what I thought as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Heck of a difference in terms of sensible wx for MIA between most other models and EC/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like Charlie the sequel -- Charlotte Harbor hit at 120. EDIT -- maybe a little south of there -- Naples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Amazing how updated Euro follows the UKMET model UKMET has pretty much nailed IRMA's stormtrack from the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Landfall in SW Florida this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, beanskip said: Looks like Charlie the sequel -- Charlotte Harbor hit at 120. Really no comparison. Charley was a very compact storm. The max winds were confined to about a 10 mile width. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Chargers09 said: how do you figure it's barely a hurricane? If it spends almost a whole day over Cuba, very little chance IMO that it's a Cat 2 or more when it leaves. It could restrengthen over the FL straits, but it depends on what kind of core it has left. Big difference for FL whether it crosses much of Cuba or stays just north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Lot of touchy people on this board...if it spends 30 hours over Cuba it's going to weaken....alot. Matches up with the UK track, two of the best models showing similiar tracks over Cuba, best thing for Florida/Miami, not great for Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: If it spends almost a whole day over Cuba, very little chance IMO that it's a Cat 2 or more. It could restrengthen over the FL straits, but it depends on what kind of core it has left. Big difference for FL whether it crosses much of Cuba or stays just north. That's pretty ignorant of you. That part of Cuba isn't very mountainous. And if the Euro track ends up being a few miles too far South the eye never comes onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: If it spends almost a whole day over Cuba, very little chance IMO that it's a Cat 2 or more. It could restrengthen over the FL straits, but it depends on what kind of core it has left. Big difference for FL whether it crosses much of Cuba or stays just north. Going strictly off the model output; the post i responded to was inaccurate and irresponsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Really no comparison. Charley was a very compact storm. The max winds were confined to about a 10 mile width. From a track standpoint -- sigh .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Don't get caught up on the model pressure/wind speed. Global model is not going to be able to nail that with a system of current intensity. More important is whether it landfalls in Cuba and for how long, then make educated guess on amount of weakening/employ statistical tools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: If it spends almost a whole day over Cuba, very little chance IMO that it's a Cat 2 or more. It could restrengthen over the FL straits, but it depends on what kind of core it has left. Big difference for FL whether it crosses much of Cuba or stays just north. The mountains are in the southern part of that portion of Cuba. Not north. It will affect the hurricane but not putting below at Cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: Lot of touchy people on this board...if it spends 30 hours over Cuba it's going to weaken....alot. Matches up with the UK track, two of the best models showing similiar tracks over Cuba, best thing for Florida/Miami, not great for Cuba. Even the UKMET gets Irma back down into the 960's after spending almost a day over Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Casualbrain said: Amazing how updated Euro follows the UKMET model UKMET has pretty much nailed IRMA's stormtrack from the beginning. No, it hasn't. EC has been the best Irma model beyond 72 hours and it's been much better than the UKMET beyond 72 hours. Essentially identical prior to 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, beanskip said: From a track standpoint -- sigh .... That's not correct either, the angle of approach was much different and landfall was further North. I know you might think it's semantics but we're talking about this coming directly North from Near Cuba not on a NNE heading like Charlie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Orlando would likely see a lot of damage if this verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Even the UKMET gets Irma back down into the 960's after spending almost a day over Cuba Agree...all I said was that after spending 30 hours over Cuba it greatly weakens and Euro was showing Cat 1 hurricane winds...I know, obvious, atleast I thought it was. Euro does ramp it back up after leaving Cuba. The NE low is quicker to move out and thus that seems to move Irma more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: That's not correct either, the angle of approach was much different and landfall was further North. I know you might think it's semantics but we're talking about this coming directly North from Near Cuba not on a NNE heading like Charlie. I'm talking about where it makes landfall. I lived down there for years. I know Charlie was a different storm for heaven's sake. I saw the new pass with my own eyes that it created. I fished pine trees that it knocked into the bay. The Euro just showed a landfall within miles of that spot. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 hours ago, BlunderStorm said: Ah, I see now. I do believe that is unchallenged as far as I know in recent memory. It is certainly interesting to view how models project a storm stronger than Tip. Tip wasn't actually the strongest storm on record, if you go my wind speeds. Pressure-wise it was, but hurricanes are categorized by wind speed and not pressure. Based on that both Patricia and Haiyan were stronger. Patricia actually broke the pressure/wind relationship and had the strongest winds of any TC we know, at 215 mph, but the good thing was it hit a sparsely populated area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That's pretty ignorant of you. That part of Cuba isn't very mountainous. And if the Euro track ends up being a few miles too far South the eye never comes onshore. It really isn't ignorant, it takes a heck of a lot ot sustain a historic Cat 5 or even a Cat 4. Wasn't it FLoyd that just ingested a small amount of dry air and it was never the same? Hitting Cuba would be a huge saving grace for Florida, obviously it would still be horrible, but the chances are that any interaction with Cuba would weaken the storm especially if it is for 30+hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Yikes hi res gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, Mdecoy said: It really isn't ignorant, it takes a heck of a lot ot sustain a historic Cat 5 or even a Cat 4. Wasn't it FLoyd that just ingested a small amount of dry air and it was never the same. Hitting Cuba would be a huge savings grace for Florida, obviously it would still be horrible, but the chances are huge that any interaction with Cuba would weaken the storm especially if it is for 30+hours. But you really wouldn't have much downsloaping off of Cuba with a track to the North, especially if the core stays mostly offshore. Models may have over corrected South today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That's pretty ignorant of you. That part of Cuba isn't very mountainous. And if the Euro track ends up being a few miles too far South the eye never comes onshore. 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That's not correct either, the angle of approach was much different and landfall was further North. I know you might think it's semantics but we're talking about this coming directly North from Near Cuba not on a NNE heading like Charlie. Can you stop with this condescending tone to all of your posts? What the people said that you responded to was not invalid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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