Major Hurricane Irma

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

As has been said, the timing and degree of the northward turn is going to be so important.  The GEFS members that have landfall in Cuba tend to have a more gradual turn and allow Irma to get into the Gulf.  But then you have the HMON posted above that landfalls in Cuba and still takes it up the eastern side of Florida.  

The 12z HMON avoids Cuba, the HWRF doesn't.

[TPAwx]

Wanted to thank the mets, mods, and SME hobbyists for the analysis and keeping this thread flowing smoothly.  Hopefully in the coming days the less experienced among us (myself included) will be able to add value and participate, but be selective and hold off on ungrounded speculation and distractions, as it's going to be really important to keep this crisp, clear and on point as we get to the weekend.

[McQuackleton]

HR90-105 has Irma into Cuba

[beanskip]

HWRF looks to be going west -- spends at least 1/2 day over northern Cuba. Almost to 81W at 105 hours and still not back over water.

[Deaglesnest]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Probably a 20%-30% chance if one goes by the 0z ECMWF ensembles; less than that if one goes by the 12z GEFS. The ECWMF will be initializing momentarily so we'll get more information in a little while.

Thank you very much. This board has been a invaluable resource 

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z HMON avoids Cuba, the HWRF doesn't.

Ah, my bad.  Both start on H lol.  But you still have the UKMET with the Cuba landfall and sharper turn.

[geddyweather]

Pressure also down 5mb this update...926 mb vs 931 mb at 11am. Still moving west at 14. 

[Bostonseminole]

9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The next aircraft just departed base, should be there for the 5PM advisory.

recon looks like it turned around?

[SeanBarg]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

recon looks like it turned around?

That is the upper level dropsonde flight and they won't be going into the eye for wind/pressure readings. Next flight into the eye takes off at 3:30 CST I believe.

https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2017/09/05/the-g-iv-is-set-to-gather-data-around-hurricane-irma-today/

[packbacker]

Cleo was a major that went over Cuba...went from a 4 to a 1 and recovered some after but weakened greatly on it's approach to SC.  Would expect Cuba to really weaken Irma.

[McQuackleton]

It remained in Cuba till HR 120.

[DCAlexandria]

Cleo was a major that went over Cuba...went from a 4 to a 1 and recovered some after but weakened greatly on it's approach to SC.  Would expect Cuba to really weaken Irma.

That's a totally different track than Irma will
Take.


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[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Cleo was a major that went over Cuba...went from a 4 to a 1 and recovered some after but weakened greatly on it's approach to SC.  Would expect Cuba to really weaken Irma.

Compare that path to the Cuba topo map. It went over the mountains on the southwest part of the island.

[Radtechwxman]

If Irma doesn't make that more northerly turn later today I would say the chances of land interaction with the Dominican or Cuba are much higher

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Cleo was a major that went over Cuba...went from a 4 to a 1 and recovered some after but weakened greatly on it's approach to SC.  Would expect Cuba to really weaken Irma.

Cleo had more interaction with the mountains on Cuba's SE side. 

[packbacker]

3 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

It remained in Cuba till HR 120.

Yep...into Cuba Cat4 out of Cuba low end Cat 2.

[Bostonseminole]

3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

If Irma doesn't make that more northerly turn later today I would say the chances of land interaction with the Dominican or Cuba are much higher

last recon fixed showed a northward trend.. 

[NJwx85]

The Euro is a tick North of 00z through hr 54 but the differences are negligible. 

[NavarreDon]

Noticed this on the 2:00 pm update. Is this different than the 11:00 am?
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).


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[DCAlexandria]

The Euro is a tick North of 00z through hr 54 but the differences are negligible. 

Even a tick North could mean no Cuba landfall


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[NJwx85]

Just now, DCAlexandria said:

Even a tick North could mean no Cuba landfall


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By hr 60 it's almost right on top of the 00z position for the same time.

[ncskywarn]

Be interesting to see if Irma can break this record.

 

[Radtechwxman]

6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

last recon fixed showed a northward trend.. 

I just took a peek at satellite and you can say the slightest little jog nw. If this thing ends up traversing northern Cuba that would def take Irma down a few notches. Only time can tell

[beanskip]

Euro looks similar to 0z EXCEPT it has now spun up a 996 mb low in the SW gulf of mexico at 72 hours.

[DCAlexandria]

By hr 60 it's almost right on top of the 00z position for the same time.

Did 0z make a Cuba landfall?


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[donsutherland1]

Just now, DCAlexandria said:

Did 0z make a Cuba landfall?


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Yes.

[packfan98]

Direct hit to Cuba at hr 96...

[NJwx85]

The Euro still makes landfall in Cuba.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, beanskip said:

Euro looks similar to 0z EXCEPT it has now spun up a 996 mb low in the SW gulf of mexico at 72 hours.

That development has been hinted at by models.  Wonder if it will pump up heights ahead of it.

[Chinook]

regarding the latest Vortex recon message: the surface wind detected is 160 kt, the max flight level wind is 151 kt. Is this something to be expected? I was thinking that the flight level winds were always at least 10% greater than the surface wind.