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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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10 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

WeatherBell.com has all the EC Ensembles, but is subscription. You can't see EC ensembles for free. 

Try weather.us

Has operational, control, and every individual ensemble member.  Hopefully this site lasts though winter. ;)

 

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1 hour ago, Wow said:

All a matter of if and when the cutoff ULL occurs and how far south it sinks.  Sinks way south with HP over the northeast it's a SE drill.  Stays over the midwest like the Euro shows at day 10, it's a peek into the GOM and a sharp turn north and rakes the SE and possibly the entire east coast.

Yup. The next week of model runs will be interesting. But it will all come down to timing and placement on when this thing turns up and sinks its teeth into something.  It would be nice for it to be a fish storm and have no harm. 

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In the historical record, three Cat 4> hurricanes have traveled a path similar to the Euro projected track;  i.e. within 65 miles of Key West.

 September storms
Georges 1998  long track
Rita 2005  shorter track

August storm
Unnamed 1852

No July or October Cat 4> storm tracked north of Hispaniola.

 

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