hawkeye_wx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The GFS is notably hanging the trough back/digging it down the coast more each of the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Potentially of concern is the idea that Irma would weaken somewhat (not surprising), but then strengthen just as it nears the Florida Peninsula. Put another way, the possibility of Irma's becoming the 4th Category 5 hurricane on record to make U.S. landfall since 1851 may be increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 894MB at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 FLL takes the Northern eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Making the turn N around 102hr. MIA in crosshairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Eye is tantalizing close to the coast near MIA at hr126. Western Eyewall hammering Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Porsche said: 894MB at 120 Putting Miami/FLL in the NE corner of a landfalling Cat 4/Cat 5 hurricane is about as worst-case scenario as you can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 A wee bit east of 6z run, but way within the margin of error -- basically the same run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Heading due NNW once past PBI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like a run up the FL east coast is starting to come back into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 894 right offshore Miami Beach - my God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, beanskip said: A wee bit east of 6z run, but way within the margin of error -- basically the same run. Somehow the eye manages to never come on shore, which is probably worse because it maintains its strength while the eyewall blasts the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Negligible differences between 06z and 12z thru 18z Mon with location just over or E of MIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 "Jose" and Irma seems to be inching closer and closer each run. Wonder if that will ever come into place just to add to the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Metro Miami is already the most vulnerable of any US city to the myriad ways in which a tropical system can wreck a place. This is the worst case scenario as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Anywhere from the southeastern most tip of Florida to Port St Lucie gets rocked by the western eyewall with this run... Looks to be headed toward GA/SC unless it turns west a tad more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Heading due NNW once past PBI. Looks N to me. I see her heading offshore and then to the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 These differences are really just noise at this stage. A US landfall is looking a lot more likely for sure, probably as a major hurricane unless it runs over Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: Looks N to me. I see her heading offshore and then to the Carolinas. See how it's headed for the GA coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Looks N to me. I see her heading offshore and then to the Carolinas. She'll have 80+F ssts the entire way up to NC if that's the case: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 This looks like Matthew's more awful cousin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 yeah this run destroys savannah and much of the sc coast. one of the worst runs yet to be honest...after huge damage in south/southeast florida it then rakes the coast but never makes it far enough inland to weaken much then pounds ga/sc. pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 That bath water between Cuba and the Keys is really worrisome. If she is unfazed by any land interaction with Northern / NE Cuba... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: See how it's headed for the GA coast? LF in SC based on that. Anyway, track was approx 100 miles east versus 6z after the pass near MIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I think it's worth noting that on this run, the storm is just southeast of the keys early Sunday AM. It then landfalls near Savannah late Monday night. 36-48 hour event for the FL-GA coast. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jaguars said: This looks like Matthew's more awful cousin I was just thinking that. It's entirely possible the eye does not make landfall in Florida and the first US landfall is in Georgia or South Carolina. Based off the 12z GFS, it appears as though Tybee Island is definitely at risk for such a scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: LF in SC based on that. Anyway, track was approx 100 miles east versus 6z after the pass near MIA Looks like Georgia to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Irma takes a terrible track for Savannah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, pazzo83 said: That bath water between Cuba and the Keys is really worrisome. If she survives any land interaction with Northern / NE Cuba... You can see how the GFS responds to that with the pressure drops as it approaches the Keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: That bath water between Cuba and the Keys is really worrisome. If she survives any land interaction with Northern / NE Cuba... Honestly the 890s the GFS showed this run in this area seem possible if it avoids much of the possible land interaction... Euro is way off with its pressure forecasts (not that that is important or anything). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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