bdgwx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Apparently the HMON performed like trash during Harvey: "the HMON model's average error at four days was a staggering 630 nautical miles, compared to about 170 nautical miles for the European model. " It's the same thing with Irma too. HMON has an average error of about 600 miles and humans are at 200 miles. The Euro is annihilating humans right now with an average error of 100 miles at D5 forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: Hurricane Allen had the strongest winds in the Atlantic at 190MPH sustained, Hurricane Wilma had the lowest pressure in the Atlantic at 882mb, Hurricane Patricia had the strongest non-tornadic sustained winds on the planet at 215MPH sustained with a pinhole eye, and finally Typhoon Tip had the lowest projected non-tornadic pressure pegged at 870mb... Correct me if I'm wrong. Allen was 190 after crossing the Yucatan caused it to weaken but thankfully it weakened before hitting south Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 12z GFS initializes Irma at 933mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Irma is has a relatively large and stable eye at this time so it should be less susceptible to erc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: Hurricane Allen had the strongest winds in the Atlantic at 190MPH sustained, Hurricane Wilma had the lowest pressure in the Atlantic at 882mb, Hurricane Patricia had the strongest non-tornadic sustained winds on the planet at 215MPH sustained with a pinhole eye, and finally Typhoon Tip had the lowest projected non-tornadic pressure pegged at 870mb... Correct me if I'm wrong. you mean strongest in the gulf of mexico? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Irma is has a relatively large and stable eye at this time so it should be less susceptible to erc. Yeah, while not completely annular, it's certainly displaying some of those characteristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Irma is has a relatively large and stable eye at this time so it should be less susceptible to erc. Yep. Like almost all long-track CV storms that go through multiple ERCs and track under the dry subtropical atlantic ridge, it has some annular characteristics; less banding, bigger eye. Generally a more stable flavor of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 GFS with a slight shift south thru 18 hours. 926 vs 931 from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yeah, while not completely annular, it's certainly displaying some of those characteristics. Can we just call a duck a duck? No clue why everyone is so timid of the "A-word." It is annular right now imo, especially when looking at IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: What's the strongest hurricane ever recorded in terms of wind speed and mb? Could this top it? TIA. Posts like this are more suited for banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, nycwinter said: these long track cape verde storms are amazing... Another useless post that does not belong in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Through hr 48 the 12z GFS is nearly identical to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Can we just call a duck a duck? No clue why everyone is so timid of the "A-word." It is annular right now imo, especially when looking at IR. I mean, compare to Luis and Isabel. Those are what true annular hurricanes look like (and there are examples in the E. Pac as well - Dora's the best one) It's not really all the way there b/c the CDO is thick enough relative to the eye that it likely hides some banding features. But compared to your standard atlantic basin TC, it's clearly using a high percentage of its potential intensity and the eyewall is stable. This isn't a Wilma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Through hr 48 the 12z GFS is nearly identical to 00z. Only difference I can see is that WAR might be a bit stronger on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 It looks like a slightly north of west component of motion has commenced, although it's unclear as yet if this is a wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 almost identical position through 54hr. If anything might be just slightly slower than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Through hr 60, the positioning on the 12z GFS is identical to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherboy80 said: Can't load the site, but what about compared to the 06Z Almost identical through 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 To get more into the annular question, below is an image from one of the most important papers on the topic. The best example of the marginal case has always been Edouard, which IIRC never quite looked annular but has been characterized as such based on its intensity relative to TCHP and stability when it looked like the below. The other storms all have a higher eye size / CDO ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Through hr 48 the 12z GFS is nearly identical to 00z. Trough looks slightly deeper through 60. WAR also slightly weaker. Should see this translate to a slightly earlier recurve, Versus 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Trough looks slightly deeper through 60. WAR also slightly weaker. Should see this translate to a slightly earlier recurve, Versus 6z. Through hr 81 it's still nearly identical to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like the GFS should avoid much interaction with Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 41 minutes ago, Lookout said: Not sure if i have ever seen any hurricane be forecasted to stay that long at cat 5 strength by one of them..much less 4....that's incredible. Yeah almost always they fall off the chart back down to Cat 4 immediately. That is a signal right there just how unprecedented this storm is going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Looks like the GFS should avoid much interaction with Cuba. I feel bad rooting for it to make landfall in Cuba, but those mountains would really help break her up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 new message on TT: "September 5: Due to abnormally high traffic, soundings have been temporarily disabled to keep the server alive" We should all probably donate to Levi Cowan for keeping that site up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Stronger, slightly south at 96 than 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Moving very slowly, almost stalled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 That trough is really trying to hold back in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Moving very slowly, almost stalled. Recurve starting here. Ridge opened up and trough digging further than 6z at this hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 pretty much the exact location at 114hr as 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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