jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, hooralph said: Will be very interesting to see if the Rock survives this. Also hard to see how the airport doesn't wind up under feet and feet of sand. If the harbor takes a lot of damage and the airport is inundated, it could be hard to get on or off the island for a while. This is moot. Seriously. This will all be wiped out in the storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: They are going to need a special advisory, 11AM only had the minimum pressure at 931mb, should be at least 924-925mb. They don't issue special advisories based off pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: They probably can get by until 2pm adv unless winds have increased to something like 190 The 11AM advisory was before they had sampled the NE quadrant, which they have since done, so I'm sure the winds are up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, rockchalk83 said: They don't issue special advisories based off pressure. The 180MPH reading wasn't from the strongest part of the storm LOL The aircraft have not sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gakmsg Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Very concerned about St Kitts - Still slightly south east of them at this hour and the hoped for northern turn may now bring Irma right over them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: The 180MPH reading wasn't from the strongest part of the storm LOL The aircraft have not sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily. I read the same thing you did, however, there's not another category for this storm to go up to (which triggers the special advisory,) so it will likely be updated with the intermediate advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: They don't issue special advisories based off pressure. Ok that makes sense. Thanks for the clarification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 My uncle who has a house in Key West said the cop that lives next told him at the 2 pm advisory if it is stronger they are being told the state will issue a full and complete mandatory evacuation of all the FL keys effective by noon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like it's down to 927 mb on the latest dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: I have a hard time believing this storm has peaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, gakmsg said: Very concerned about St Kitts - Still slightly south east of them at this hour and the hoped for northern turn may now bring Irma right over them. This may sound like hyperbole, but I don't know how anyone who is in the direct path that has less than 30' ASL is comfortable riding this out... 7ft - 11 ft surge. Then put massive breakers on top of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Ryan MaueVerified account @RyanMaue Wind speed of Hurricane #Irma is very high for central pressure of 929 mb & cloud tops have warmed in past 6-12 hours ... Ryan MaueVerified account @RyanMaue Expecting eyewall cycles to modulate intensity & should see bursts of "pink" or very-cold cloud tops & pressure should fall = stronger yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, NCWX said: My uncle who has a house in Key West said the cop that lives next told him at the 2 pm advisory if it is stronger they are being told the state will issue a full and complete mandatory evacuation of all the FL keys effective by noon tomorrow. Any inconvenience such an evacuation might cause would be trivial compared to the danger of a Category 5 hurricane. Should Irma retain or increase its strength and should the guidance continue to show a potentially devastating passage over the Florida Keys, such an evacuation would make good sense. Here's a link to the Florida Historical Society's page on the 1935 Labor Day hurricane: https://myfloridahistory.org/frontiers/article/84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Not sure if i have ever seen any hurricane be forecasted to stay that long at cat 5 strength by one of them..much less 4....that's incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Does anyone know what the peak winds were when the aircraft sampled the NE quadrant just after 11AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 What's the strongest hurricane ever recorded in terms of wind speed and mb? Could this top it? TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Does anyone know what the peak winds were when the aircraft sampled the NE quadrant just after 11AM? Looks like around 150-155kt according to TT Recon page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, Lookout said: Not sure if i have ever seen any hurricane be forecasted to stay that long at cat 5 strength by one of them..much less 4....that's incredible. That's what I was thinking. It looks like Allen (1980) stayed a category 5 for 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: What's the strongest hurricane ever recorded in terms of wind speed and mb? Could this top it? TIA. Pressure: Tip (1979) 870 mb (25.69") Winds: Patricia (2015) 185 kts (215 mph) Both were Pacific basin storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: What's the strongest hurricane ever recorded in terms of wind speed and mb? Could this top it? TIA. Allen (190 mph) and and Wilma (882mb) for the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: What's the strongest hurricane ever recorded in terms of wind speed and mb? Could this top it? TIA. Wilma was 882 mb but the winds were only slightly stronger at 185 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I'm sorry if this has been posted before or if this is the wrong place, but here is a really good article from Houston area meteorologist Eric Berger about hurricane modeling. It was published this AM. https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/at-times-during-harvey-the-european-model-outperformed-humans/ Apparently the HMON performed like trash during Harvey: "the HMON model's average error at four days was a staggering 630 nautical miles, compared to about 170 nautical miles for the European model. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Wilma was 882 mb but the winds were only slightly stronger at 185Is this storm much larger is size than Wilma?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: What's the strongest hurricane ever recorded in terms of wind speed and mb? Could this top it? TIA. Hurricane Allen (1980). A pressure of 899, Wind speed of 190 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Wind speed = 215mph 872mb pressure Typhoon tip 870mb 160mph Wasn't Patricia 215? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Pressure: Tip (1979) 870 mb (25.69") Winds: Patricia (2015) 185 kts (215 mph) Both were Pacific basin storms. In the Atlantic: Hurricane Allen (1980) 190mph Hurricane Wilma (2005) 882mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, csnavywx said: Wasn't Patricia 215? Yea, that post sucked in formatting and I missed some words, and other posters answered it, so I just deleted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: What's the strongest hurricane ever recorded in terms of wind speed and mb? Could this top it? TIA. Hurricane Allen had the strongest winds in the Atlantic at 190MPH sustained, Hurricane Wilma had the lowest pressure in the Atlantic at 882mb, Hurricane Patricia had the strongest non-tornadic sustained winds on the planet at 215MPH sustained with a pinhole eye, and finally Typhoon Tip had the lowest projected non-tornadic pressure pegged at 870mb... Correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mello Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Is this storm much larger is size than Wilma? Wilma exploded in size later and became larger, but at the time of that lowest pressure reading Wilma was a tiny storm with a remarkably small eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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