Wow Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 12z hurr models more east. Several getting back over water before hitting SC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 most showing minimal land interaction with Cuba too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherboy80 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wow said: 12z hurr models more east. Several getting back over water before hitting SC... Most of those are heavily weighted towards the OP GFS correct? I know the 06Z GFS OP came way east from the 00Z, but if you look at the GFES members the spread increased dramatically! I wonder if NHC will bite on 06Z or wait for more trends to move the track slightly NE. So many things still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgf Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Significant Wave Height forecast (meters) from the NOAA WaveWatch III model almost 14m in the center... OPC is saying 50ft possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, weatherboy80 said: Most of those are heavily weighted towards the OP GFS correct? I know the 06Z GFS OP came way east from the 00Z, but if you look at the GFES members the spread increased dramatically! I wonder if NHC will bite on 06Z or wait for more trends to move the track slightly NE. So many things still on the table. Only the red line is the GFS. The NHC tries to stick pretty close to TVCN which is a consensus or blend of models. And yes, ensemble member spreads have increased a lot. That was expected and is an indication that D5 forecast confidence is probably below average right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Pretty significant shift south from 12z NAM vs. 6z (only worth looking at in the very short term, if then). Not good news for Barbuda/Antigua. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I'm very concerned that the models are going to "jump" east by a large amount and someone on the east coast is going to get caught unaware. I remember reading something a few pages back about the model initializations giving a lot of weight to the current direction and speed of the storm when doing the plots. Is it possible that the anomalous SSW motion we saw earlier was somehow being magnified by the models and now that it looks to be heading NNW that a jump could occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 NHC 11 am Update: Hurricane Irma remained a Category 5 hurricane, but its maximum sustained winds increased further to 180 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 58.4W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the north coast of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic westward to Le Mole St. Nicholas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I don't think Irma is even within the NAM's grid at initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 impressive Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 22 minutes ago, psv88 said: That would be great. Still many ways south florida is spared a direct hit. Hopefully one of them happens. I can only think of two ways that South Florida avoids a direct hit, one of them involves plowing into Cuba, and even then it would have time to recover. The second option is that it passes just far enough East, however impacts would still be very high there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 29 minutes ago, jgf said: The School in L'Orient.., would be pretty low (pun intended..) on my list of places to shelter from a hurricane passing just north of the island... i can't really think off hand of any large public buildings that are at high elevation, but many houses/villas are i guess i would probably go to this party and hope for the best! edit - for those who don't know.., even though it says "Guadeloupe".., it is in Gustavia, St. barth, so just a few miles south of the track- St barth is in the french department of guadeloupe, which includes all the french islands in the caribbean Will be very interesting to see if the Rock survives this. Also hard to see how the airport doesn't wind up under feet and feet of sand. If the harbor takes a lot of damage and the airport is inundated, it could be hard to get on or off the island for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Max winds up to 180MPH. Irma is an extremely impressive hurricane in both infrared and visible satellite images. Experimental GOES-16 one-minute visible satellite pictures show a distinct 25-30 n mi wide eye with several mesovortices rotating within with eye. The aircraft have not sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily. A peak SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC records. Irma is expected to remain within low vertical wind shear, a moist mid-level atmosphere, and high upper-ocean heat content as it moves west-northwestward during the next several days. These conditions should allow the hurricane to remain very intense throughout much of the forecast period, however, fluctuations in intensity are likely to occur as eyewall replacement cycles take place. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance and assumes little overall interaction of Irma with the islands of the Greater Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 So did the pressure come up and the winds increased? I can't remember what the pressure was on the last advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 hours ago, weatherlogix said: Is this possible???? This may be the lowest pressure a model has ever predicted... anyone have a counterexample from the past? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, weatherboy80 said: Most of those are heavily weighted towards the OP GFS correct? I know the 06Z GFS OP came way east from the 00Z, but if you look at the GFES members the spread increased dramatically! I wonder if NHC will bite on 06Z or wait for more trends to move the track slightly NE. So many things still on the table. Probably not. From my understanding 6z doesn't have the upper air included and is a little less reliable in some people'e opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Latest Recon Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 924.7 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 23 minutes ago, Wow said: 12z hurr models more east. Several getting back over water before hitting SC... Latest advisory still shows west track. Based on this guidance we should be seeing a wnw track begin this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Latest Recon Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 924.7 mb So obviously still strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: So did the pressure come up and the winds increased? I can't remember what the pressure was on the last advisory The pressure is way down, sub 925mb now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 good grief 924 extrap. maybe the gfs wasnt off its rocker as much as we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, InstantWeatherMaps said: This may be the lowest pressure a model has ever predicted... anyone have a counterexample from the past? We had an 856mb HMON run a day or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, BlunderStorm said: We had an 856mb HMON run a day or two ago. This is 852.6... I know it looks like 863 next to the L but that's actually a 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 11am NHC Forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 They are going to need a special advisory, 11AM only had the minimum pressure at 931mb, should be at least 924-925mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: Probably not. From my understanding 6z doesn't have the upper air included and is a little less reliable in some people'e opinion. Midwest WFOs are launching every 6 hours, so 06z is ingesting some upper air data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, AcePuppy said: 11am NHC Forecast And it's going to make a hard right turn Sunday morning which isn't reflected here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: They are going to need a special advisory, 11AM only had the minimum pressure at 931mb, should be at least 924-925mb. They probably can get by until 2pm adv unless winds have increased to something like 190 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, InstantWeatherMaps said: This is 852.6... I know it looks like 863 next to the L but that's actually a 5. Ah, I see now. I do believe that is unchallenged as far as I know in recent memory. It is certainly interesting to view how models project a storm stronger than Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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