OUGrad05 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, KBO650 said: on southern side, what are those little 'bubbles' that appear? Cloudtops from intense convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, KBO650 said: on southern side, what are those little 'bubbles' that appear? lol, Extremely intense towers from thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 14 minutes ago, jgf said: i travel there pretty regularly too - while i agree with what you say, i think they will fare better than any other island would if it got hit with a cat 5 eyewall - as they might... it is basically a 1st world place - people don't live in shacks... Oh, totally. I think the infrastructure on the island, as well as the quality of the construction, is as good as you could hope to find in the area. I'm just challenged to imagine where you get truly safe shelter. I saw one list that included the school in Lorient, and that's gotta be only a few feet above sea level. Gustavia was inundated from a relatively minor hurricane that made an odd trek north from there in the last decade. I imagine if the eye passes just north as forcecast it will get badly flooded. Also imagine the airport does, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, KBO650 said: Wow.. The imagery from GOES-16 is breathtaking and it's not even officially "operational" yet (still testing). It has proven valuable this season for its near 3-D imagery by providing excellent resolution of clouds heights and convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Recon about to head back into the eastern eye wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 About to be upgraded to 180 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like it beginning to move a bit north of due west now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Some warming occurring near the inner core, could be the start of an ERC. Also, it looks like the CDO is trying to expand again. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Some warming occurring near the inner core, could be the start of an ERC. Also, it looks like the CDO is trying to expand again. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif she is an absolute monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 She better start showing a more northward component soon or Barbuda is going to take a direct hit. FYI, both the HWRF and HMON showed the eye narrowly missing Barbuda to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 28 minutes ago, LandofLincoln said: So... let's say this hurricane doesn't really come across any resistance until it hits land.. is it likely to just continue strengthening overall (besides the ERC which could slow it down in the short term)? There would probably be fluctuations in intensity, especially if it can avoid too much interaction with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba. It will be a large hurricane, so some interaction is likely even if it tracks somewhat farther to the north than the NHC's forecast track. The Leeward Islands should be preparing for a Category 5 hurricane. Florida should be preparing for at least a Category 4 hurricane. Since 1851, all of the major hurricanes that passed within 100 nautical miles of Irma's 8 am position (16.7°N, 57.7°W) and reached Category 5 status made U.S. landfall as Category 4 storms (Lake Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928, Donna in 1960, and Hugo in 1989). The "Great Miami Hurricane" of 1926 was not yet a major hurricane within 100 nautical miles of Irma's 8 am position, but it also made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane. The bottom line is that the region through which Irma is passing has very warm SSTs and often conditions that are favorable for developing and sustaining strong hurricanes. Finally, all major hurricanes that passed within 150 nautical miles of Irma's 8 am position made landfall in an area extending from Florida to South Carolina. That climatology is consistent with most of the guidance right now. Moreover, 55% of such hurricanes ultimately made U.S. landfall. The guidance is even more bullish on U.S. landfall than climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Some warming occurring near the inner core, could be the start of an ERC. Also, it looks like the CDO is trying to expand again. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif I was about to say this. Cloud tops have warmed dramatically since last night. But these things tend to have these night/day cycles with convection exploding at night. Think we might see an ERC soon but given low shear and very warm waters ahead it could def maintain cat 5 depending on land interaction. Man if this made a cat 5 US landfall that would be historic. Last was Andrew if I recall which is ironic cuz Irma has resembled its structure at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freshgeek Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 This thing is basically a 15 (maybe a lot more) mile wide EF-4 tornado, with gust up to an EF-5. Being from Moore, OK, I'm all to familiar with what these kinds of winds can do. At least we never had to worry about a storm surge associated with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: I was about to say this. Cloud tops have warmed dramatically since last night. But these things tend to have these night/day cycles with convection exploding at night. Think we might see an ERC soon but given low shear and very warm waters ahead it could def maintain cat 5 depending on land interaction. Man if this made a cat 5 US landfall that would be historic. Last was Andrew if I recall which is ironic cuz Irma has resembled its structure at times Bolded for emphasis, since the big ones draw in folks who don't look at tropical very much. This is called "sunshine" and it happens every day to all storms. They all will look stronger at night, but that's partly D-max and partly just a meaningless effect of no sunlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Freshgeek said: This thing is basically a 15 (maybe a lot more) mile wide EF-4 tornado, with gust up to an EF-5. Being from Moore, OK, I'm all to familiar with what these kinds of winds can do. At least we never had to worry about a storm surge associated with them. It's wider than that, isn't the eye itself 20 miles wide at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 There is quite a bit of spread in the ensemble members at 120 hours now. And the spread between the EPS and GEFS is also relatively large. D5 forecasts probably have below average confidence at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Raw T#'s down to 6.4. Dvorak image looks like she's a little warmer on the western flank. I'd post image, but can't figure out how to on mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, irishbri74 said: Raw T#'s down to 6.4. Dvorak image looks like she's a little warmer on the western flank. I'd post image, but can't figure out how to on mobile. Definitely looking a touch more ragged now than 3 hours ago when I crawled out of bed. Perhaps some shear or a bit of dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgf Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 37 minutes ago, hooralph said: Oh, totally. I think the infrastructure on the island, as well as the quality of the construction, is as good as you could hope to find in the area. I'm just challenged to imagine where you get truly safe shelter. I saw one list that included the school in Lorient, and that's gotta be only a few feet above sea level. Gustavia was inundated from a relatively minor hurricane that made an odd trek north from there in the last decade. I imagine if the eye passes just north as forcecast it will get badly flooded. Also imagine the airport does, too. The School in L'Orient.., would be pretty low (pun intended..) on my list of places to shelter from a hurricane passing just north of the island... i can't really think off hand of any large public buildings that are at high elevation, but many houses/villas are i guess i would probably go to this party and hope for the best! edit - for those who don't know.., even though it says "Guadeloupe".., it is in Gustavia, St. barth, so just a few miles south of the track- St barth is in the french department of guadeloupe, which includes all the french islands in the caribbean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: Definitely looking a touch more ragged now than 3 hours ago when I crawled out of bed. Perhaps some shear or a bit of dry air. Just standard fluctuations in intensity, possible eyewall replacement cycle. Shear and dry air will not be a problem for Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Just standard fluctuations in intensity, possible eyewall replacement cycle. Shear and dry air will not be a problem for Irma. Clearly looks like shear or interaction with the high impacting the storm right now. So I disagree and yes could also be undergoing an ERC. Generally though outflow channels look pretty damn good. You have to realize small disruptions can occur, I'm not saying it's going to fall apart and become a cat1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowberd Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Cam on Jost Van Dyke:: http://www.soggydollar.com/webcamOne of my favorite spots ever. I'm sick over what that tiny island will be facing... mixed terrain. Mudslides? My cousin manages the White Bay Villas. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: Definitely looking a touch more ragged now than 3 hours ago when I crawled out of bed. Perhaps some shear or a bit of dry air. How does Irma look more ragged? Looks the same to me, minus the sun warming up the cloud tops some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: Clearly looks like shear or interaction with the high impacting the storm right now. So I disagree and yes could also be undergoing an ERC. Generally though outflow channels look pretty damn good. You have to realize small disruptions can occur, I'm not saying it's going to fall apart and become a cat1. You're wrong and need to look at some old tropical sat images to learn how to interpret. Storm is weaker but that's normal diurnal. Presentation worse because of that and warmer daytime cloudtops at same height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 14 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Bolded for emphasis, since the big ones draw in folks who don't look at tropical very much. This is called "sunshine" and it happens every day to all storms. They all will look stronger at night, but that's partly D-max and partly just a meaningless effect of no sunlight. Not sure this is all "sunshine" man. Satellite estimates have lowered some. Hurricanes are known to have explosions of convection overnight. Many notable storms have seen these rapid intensifications occur overnight. It will fluctuate in intensity, that's a given with ERC's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: Clearly looks like shear or interaction with the high impacting the storm right now. So I disagree and yes could also be undergoing an ERC. Generally though outflow channels look pretty damn good. You have to realize small disruptions can occur, I'm not saying it's going to fall apart and become a cat1. That would be great. Still many ways south florida is spared a direct hit. Hopefully one of them happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: How does Irma look more ragged? Looks the same to me, minus the sun warming up the cloud tops some. Oh crap, you are right...I realized I had multiple tabs up and one of them hadn't been updated for hours and hours...my bad... It still looks pretty good but not quite as good as it did in terms of convection and cold cloud tops, I closed the other tab btw...my fault... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I'm really curious as to when or if it will make this more nw turn. If it stays more westerly it could have more interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba which would def weaken it quicker. Overall models seem to be in excellent agreement on it turning more nw later today and most models keep the core over water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: Oh crap, you are right...I realized I had multiple tabs up and one of them hadn't been updated for hours and hours...my bad... It still looks pretty good but not quite as good as it did in terms of convection and cold cloud tops, I closed the other tab btw...my fault... Looks pretty textbook right now to me. Hurricanes (unfortunately) don't really look healthier than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanInWayland Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 hour ago, RU4Real said: I've been to Anguilla - it's a beautiful island and the people are wonderful. The homes are, as noted, largely reinforced concrete with sheet aluminum roofing. The roofs will lift but the structures will survive, for the most part. Anguilla's residential population is built largely on higher ground and won't be affected by surge. There are, however, a couple of really great resorts that will probably suffer extreme damage. Yeah, that string of small resorts on Meads Bay between Malliouhana and the Viceroy looks to be especially vulnerable. Low-lying, and on a beach facing the open Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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