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Major Hurricane Irma

NJwx85

By NJwx85,
in Tropical Headquarters

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hooralph

hooralph

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 1:24 PM, jgf said:

 

i travel there pretty regularly too - while i agree with what you say, i think they will fare better than any other island would if it got hit with a cat 5 eyewall - as they might...

it is basically a 1st world place - people don't live in shacks...

 

 

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Oh, totally. I think the infrastructure on the island, as well as the quality of the construction, is as good as you could hope to find in the area. I'm just challenged to imagine where you get truly safe shelter. I saw one list that included the school in Lorient, and that's gotta be only a few feet above sea level.

Gustavia was inundated from a relatively minor hurricane that made an odd trek north from there in the last decade. I imagine if the eye passes just north as forcecast it will get badly flooded. Also imagine the airport does, too.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 1:25 PM, LandofLincoln said:

So... let's say this hurricane doesn't really come across any resistance until it hits land.. is it likely to just continue strengthening overall (besides the ERC which could slow it down in the short term)?

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There would probably be fluctuations in intensity, especially if it can avoid too much interaction with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba. It will be a large hurricane, so some interaction is likely even if it tracks somewhat farther to the north than the NHC's forecast track.

The Leeward Islands should be preparing for a Category 5 hurricane. Florida should be preparing for at least a Category 4 hurricane. Since 1851, all of the major hurricanes that passed within 100 nautical miles of Irma's 8 am position (16.7°N, 57.7°W) and reached Category 5 status made U.S. landfall as Category 4 storms (Lake Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928, Donna in 1960, and Hugo in 1989). The "Great Miami Hurricane" of 1926 was not yet a major hurricane within 100 nautical miles of Irma's 8 am position, but it also made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane. The bottom line is that the region through which Irma is passing has very warm SSTs and often conditions that are favorable for developing and sustaining strong hurricanes.

Finally, all major hurricanes that passed within 150 nautical miles of Irma's 8 am position made landfall in an area extending from Florida to South Carolina. That climatology is consistent with most of the guidance right now. Moreover, 55% of such hurricanes ultimately made U.S. landfall. The guidance is even more bullish on U.S. landfall than climatology.

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Radtechwxman

Radtechwxman

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 1:49 PM, NJwx85 said:

Some warming occurring near the inner core, could be the start of an ERC. Also, it looks like the CDO is trying to expand again. 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif

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I was about to say this. Cloud tops have warmed dramatically since last night. But these things tend to have these night/day cycles with convection exploding at night. Think we might see an ERC soon but given low shear and very warm waters ahead it could def maintain cat 5 depending on land interaction. Man if this made a cat 5 US landfall that would be historic. Last was Andrew if I recall which is ironic cuz Irma has resembled its structure at times

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Drz1111

Drz1111

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 2:04 PM, StormChaser4Life said:

I was about to say this. Cloud tops have warmed dramatically since last night. But these things tend to have these night/day cycles with convection exploding at night. Think we might see an ERC soon but given low shear and very warm waters ahead it could def maintain cat 5 depending on land interaction. Man if this made a cat 5 US landfall that would be historic. Last was Andrew if I recall which is ironic cuz Irma has resembled its structure at times

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Bolded for emphasis, since the big ones draw in folks who don't look at tropical very much.  This is called "sunshine" and it happens every day to all storms.  They all will look stronger at night, but that's partly D-max and partly just a meaningless effect of no sunlight.

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OUGrad05

OUGrad05

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 2:05 PM, Freshgeek said:

This thing is basically a 15 (maybe a lot more) mile wide EF-4 tornado, with gust up to an EF-5. Being from Moore, OK, I'm all to familiar with what these kinds of winds can do. 

 

At least we never had to worry about a storm surge associated with them.

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It's wider than that, isn't the eye itself 20 miles wide at this point?

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jgf

jgf

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 1:43 PM, hooralph said:

Oh, totally. I think the infrastructure on the island, as well as the quality of the construction, is as good as you could hope to find in the area. I'm just challenged to imagine where you get truly safe shelter. I saw one list that included the school in Lorient, and that's gotta be only a few feet above sea level.

Gustavia was inundated from a relatively minor hurricane that made an odd trek north from there in the last decade. I imagine if the eye passes just north as forcecast it will get badly flooded. Also imagine the airport does, too.

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The School in L'Orient.., would be pretty low (pun intended..) on my list of places to shelter from a hurricane passing just north of the island...

i can't really think off hand of any large public buildings that are at high elevation, but many houses/villas are

i guess i would probably go to this party and hope for the best!

edit - for those who don't know.., even though it says "Guadeloupe".., it is in Gustavia, St. barth, so just a few miles south of the track- St barth is in the french department of guadeloupe, which includes all the french islands in the caribbean

 

 

FullSizeRender 4.jpg

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OUGrad05

OUGrad05

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 2:17 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Just standard fluctuations in intensity, possible eyewall replacement cycle. Shear and dry air will not be a problem for Irma.

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Clearly looks like shear or interaction with the high impacting the storm right now.  So I disagree and yes could also be undergoing an ERC.  Generally though outflow channels look pretty damn good.  You have to realize small disruptions can occur, I'm not saying it's going to fall apart and become a cat1.

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Drz1111

Drz1111

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 2:19 PM, OUGrad05 said:

Clearly looks like shear or interaction with the high impacting the storm right now.  So I disagree and yes could also be undergoing an ERC.  Generally though outflow channels look pretty damn good.  You have to realize small disruptions can occur, I'm not saying it's going to fall apart and become a cat1.

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You're wrong and need to look at some old tropical sat images to learn how to interpret.  Storm is weaker but that's normal diurnal.  Presentation worse because of that and warmer daytime cloudtops at same height.

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Radtechwxman

Radtechwxman

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 2:07 PM, Drz1111 said:

Bolded for emphasis, since the big ones draw in folks who don't look at tropical very much.  This is called "sunshine" and it happens every day to all storms.  They all will look stronger at night, but that's partly D-max and partly just a meaningless effect of no sunlight.

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Not sure this is all "sunshine" man. Satellite estimates have lowered some. Hurricanes are known to have explosions of convection overnight. Many notable storms have seen these rapid intensifications occur overnight. It will fluctuate in intensity, that's a given with ERC's

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 2:19 PM, OUGrad05 said:

Clearly looks like shear or interaction with the high impacting the storm right now.  So I disagree and yes could also be undergoing an ERC.  Generally though outflow channels look pretty damn good.  You have to realize small disruptions can occur, I'm not saying it's going to fall apart and become a cat1.

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That would be great. Still many ways south florida is spared a direct hit. Hopefully one of them happens. 

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OUGrad05

OUGrad05

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 2:22 PM, jojo762 said:

How does Irma look more ragged? Looks the same to me, minus the sun warming up the cloud tops some. 

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Oh crap, you are right...I realized I had multiple tabs up and one of them hadn't been updated for hours and hours...my bad...

It still looks pretty good but not quite as good as it did in terms of convection and cold cloud tops, I closed the other tab btw...my fault...

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Radtechwxman

Radtechwxman

Posted
Posted

I'm really curious as to when or if it will make this more nw turn. If it stays more westerly it could have more interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba which would def weaken it quicker. Overall models seem to be in excellent agreement on it turning more nw later today and most models keep the core over water

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Jaguars

Jaguars

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 2:24 PM, OUGrad05 said:

Oh crap, you are right...I realized I had multiple tabs up and one of them hadn't been updated for hours and hours...my bad...

It still looks pretty good but not quite as good as it did in terms of convection and cold cloud tops, I closed the other tab btw...my fault...

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Looks pretty textbook right now to me.  Hurricanes (unfortunately) don't really look healthier than that.

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SeanInWayland

SeanInWayland

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 1:03 PM, RU4Real said:

I've been to Anguilla - it's a beautiful island and the people are wonderful. The homes are, as noted, largely reinforced concrete with sheet aluminum roofing. The roofs will lift but the structures will survive, for the most part. Anguilla's residential population is built largely on higher ground and won't be affected by surge. There are, however, a couple of really great resorts that will probably suffer extreme damage.

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Yeah, that string of small resorts on Meads Bay between Malliouhana and the Viceroy looks to be especially vulnerable. Low-lying, and on a beach facing the open Atlantic.

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