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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Don't think you could thread the needle any better than that.

I know it doesn't mean anything at this point & I don't know much about Tropical Storms, but verbatim if that was the direction/strength of Irma, wouldn't S Florida deal with a ton of surge being that it is on the NE side of the storm? 

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47 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
1 hour ago, harrisale said:
At least we're not seeing any ridiculous TCHP values along the progged EURO storm track at the moment, especially in the Gulf due to Harvey. Of course this could change 7-10 days out. 


 

Don't focus on the red coloration. That depth is far beyond overkill for a non-stalled hurricane and Oceanic Heat Potential. Anything over 70 kJ^-3 is potent for a moving hurricane. The 26° isotherm is very deep from 50W all the way to the Gulf Stream.

Great point.

2017242atd26.png

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5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Sorry for the borderline banter, but boy oh boy would this member be about worst case scenario.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017083112_276_5662_149_m19.png

Let's hope not.  I would think the eastern trough/Atlantic ridge would roll it away if it did aim for the coast.  If the jetstream goes into a zonal flow, then all bets are off (but that trough has been very persistent this summer).

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1 hour ago, a5ehren said:

Is that scale MPH or KT? Either way 140+ at Key West is obviously very bad.

And that's a massive cane. 100+ from Mobile to PCB if it hit the northern GOM.

It was way to big with Matthews RMW last year.  I don't think it's possible for Florida and Cuba to be getting 100mph winds at the same time.

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2 hours ago, SN_Lover said:

you will see.... don't forget the high mountains for added excitement. 

Cuba_Topography.png

 

The highest mountains are on the far eastern end, there is a small patch in the middle but by far the worst mountain range that would disrupt a circulation is near Hispaniola. This rides the north shore, offshore at that too.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

The trough/ cutoff over Missouri is lifting out days 9 to 10, hence why this is allowed to get into the Gulf on this run.

Yes, not to mention the ridge strengthens along the East coast which is why it moves west and not west northwest into Florida.

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All a matter of if and when the cutoff ULL occurs and how far south it sinks.  Sinks way south with HP over the northeast it's a SE drill.  Stays over the midwest like the Euro shows at day 10, it's a peek into the GOM and a sharp turn north and rakes the SE and possibly the entire east coast.

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4 minutes ago, Wow said:

All a matter of if and when the cutoff ULL occurs and how far south it sinks.  Sinks way south with HP over the northeast it's a SE drill.  Stays over the midwest like the Euro shows at day 10, it's a peek into the GOM and a sharp turn north and rakes the SE and possibly the entire east coast.

The thing to watch though too, with tropical systems especially of this magnitude, everything in the mid latitude tends to slow down. There is no guarantee that the trough sets up in the southeast at that point, could set up in the plains even, especially if a massively strong ridge forms in front of it behind the first trough.

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Help me understand something with tropical systems? A high-pressure system will block a tropical low-pressure system from entering the area where the high pressure is. Like if we had a high pressure directly over us, a tropical system couldn't push the high pressure out of the way.

So then a trough kicks a tropical system in the direction it's going and can sometimes absorb a weaker tropical system.

So we have to look at where the high and low pressure systems are setup in about a week from now, meaning that by next weekend, somewhere in the Eastern US could experience a hit from a major hurricane system. Anywhere from the keys all the way up to here. Is this a correct observation?

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