yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 7:32 PM, NJwx85 said: Expand Interesting that it LOOKS like the EURO is the only model to have Irma strike the Northern Antilles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 7:34 PM, Z-Cast said: Expand Dear God.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Trying to post images here is awful. In any event, several of the 18z models have Irma reaching CAT 4 intensity by tomorrow and one reaches cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 7:34 PM, Z-Cast said: Expand Is that scale MPH or KT? Either way 140+ at Key West is obviously very bad. And that's a massive cane. 100+ from Mobile to PCB if it hit the northern GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 180 hr and after the EPS mean is further north than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Not hard to see how this is ramping up so quickly. It's looks mean with that small diameter eye. As someone noted earlier, it will have time to go through several ERC so size will only get larger from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 7:34 PM, Z-Cast said: Expand Don't think you could thread the needle any better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 12z EPS Mean North of OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 7:45 PM, Brick Tamland said: Don't think you could thread the needle any better than that. Expand I know it doesn't mean anything at this point & I don't know much about Tropical Storms, but verbatim if that was the direction/strength of Irma, wouldn't S Florida deal with a ton of surge being that it is on the NE side of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 7:38 PM, a5ehren said: Is that scale MPH or KT? Either way 140+ at Key West is obviously very bad. And that's a massive cane. 100+ from Mobile to PCB if it hit the northern GOM. Expand MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I'd say the odds of a Major making landfall in the US are over 50% at this point. Which is obscene at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 12Z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 It looks to me like the EPS is split into two main camps, one similar to the OP which takes the system into the Gulf of Mexico and the other which takes this up the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Look how that trough erodes the ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 7:37 PM, NJwx85 said: Expand Looks like it will be atleast cat 3 , at next advisory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 7:33 PM, Windspeed said: On 8/31/2017 at 7:14 PM, harrisale said: At least we're not seeing any ridiculous TCHP values along the progged EURO storm track at the moment, especially in the Gulf due to Harvey. Of course this could change 7-10 days out. Expand Don't focus on the red coloration. That depth is far beyond overkill for a non-stalled hurricane and Oceanic Heat Potential. Anything over 70 kJ^-3 is potent for a moving hurricane. The 26° isotherm is very deep from 50W all the way to the Gulf Stream. Expand Great point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Cat 3 as of 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Sorry for the borderline banter, but boy oh boy would this member be about worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 8:39 PM, olafminesaw said: Sorry for the borderline banter, but boy oh boy would this member be about worst case scenario. Expand Let's hope not. I would think the eastern trough/Atlantic ridge would roll it away if it did aim for the coast. If the jetstream goes into a zonal flow, then all bets are off (but that trough has been very persistent this summer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 8:39 PM, olafminesaw said: Sorry for the borderline banter, but boy oh boy would this member be about worst case scenario. Expand That would pretty much end the Sandy talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 4:43 PM, Stebo said: It wouldn't, that should be tracking W there, GFS has always had issues with lows both tropical and mid latitude plowing head strong right into ridges. Expand Is my memory failing me or did Irene in 2005 escape basically by doing exactly that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 7:38 PM, a5ehren said: Is that scale MPH or KT? Either way 140+ at Key West is obviously very bad. And that's a massive cane. 100+ from Mobile to PCB if it hit the northern GOM. Expand It was way to big with Matthews RMW last year. I don't think it's possible for Florida and Cuba to be getting 100mph winds at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Here is the UKMET out to 168 and COAMPS out to 120. It looks like UKMET splits the difference between the ECMWF and GFS. COAMPS has it as a cat 4 with a 951mb pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:56 PM, SN_Lover said: you will see.... don't forget the high mountains for added excitement. Expand The highest mountains are on the far eastern end, there is a small patch in the middle but by far the worst mountain range that would disrupt a circulation is near Hispaniola. This rides the north shore, offshore at that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 7:02 PM, Hoosier said: The trough/ cutoff over Missouri is lifting out days 9 to 10, hence why this is allowed to get into the Gulf on this run. Expand Yes, not to mention the ridge strengthens along the East coast which is why it moves west and not west northwest into Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 All a matter of if and when the cutoff ULL occurs and how far south it sinks. Sinks way south with HP over the northeast it's a SE drill. Stays over the midwest like the Euro shows at day 10, it's a peek into the GOM and a sharp turn north and rakes the SE and possibly the entire east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 8:49 PM, Eduardo said: Is my memory failing me or did Irene in 2005 escape basically by doing exactly that? Expand Nah, Irene was picked up by a trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 9:02 PM, Wow said: All a matter of if and when the cutoff ULL occurs and how far south it sinks. Sinks way south with HP over the northeast it's a SE drill. Stays over the midwest like the Euro shows at day 10, it's a peek into the GOM and a sharp turn north and rakes the SE and possibly the entire east coast. Expand The thing to watch though too, with tropical systems especially of this magnitude, everything in the mid latitude tends to slow down. There is no guarantee that the trough sets up in the southeast at that point, could set up in the plains even, especially if a massively strong ridge forms in front of it behind the first trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Help me understand something with tropical systems? A high-pressure system will block a tropical low-pressure system from entering the area where the high pressure is. Like if we had a high pressure directly over us, a tropical system couldn't push the high pressure out of the way. So then a trough kicks a tropical system in the direction it's going and can sometimes absorb a weaker tropical system. So we have to look at where the high and low pressure systems are setup in about a week from now, meaning that by next weekend, somewhere in the Eastern US could experience a hit from a major hurricane system. Anywhere from the keys all the way up to here. Is this a correct observation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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