Wow Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Another small lurch west. Now moving right through the middle of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I guess the best (if you can call it that) case scenario would to have the eye-wall go through the Everglades like the new GFS is showing instead of populated areas in and around Miami. Either way, it sucks for Florida though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 CMC goes right across Cuba.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 GGEM is laughable... 12z was up the Chesapeake... 00z its sending Irma into the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 UKMET Continues to go straight across Hispaniola and Cuba, but now has a sharper turn North over Central Cuba. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/storm-tracker/#?tab=map&stormId=11L&stormName=IRMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Where is everyone getting the CMC past 36hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Amped said: CMC is south, going for a direct hit on PR. worthless init at 988 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, Amped said: Where is everyone getting the CMC past 36hrs? http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Keep an eye on its little brother following it. Looks as though it may get trapped under the same high as Irma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, sirkan said: Long time listener, first time poster. Looks like onshore flow for both MIA and Tampa/St. Petersburg at 144. This is beautiful and frightening at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Jose is getting interesting at 168... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 ADT down to 937mb, 127kt which would bring the winds up to 145 sustained, inching closer to cat 5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 That Lakes trough that appeared on the 12z GFS is sort of back on 00z... *may* have post landfall implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Jaguars said: Irma driving up the Turnpike. Good grief. See that's why we put super expensive tolls on I-95 up by us. Canes see that and say, "wait it costs HOW much do go from DC to NYC?? Nope." That's what usually kicks'em back out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 GFS back to the 12z idea of phasing it with a troff coming down through the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Anyone with encyclopedic recall have analogs for a storm moving northward up literally the exact center of the Florida peninsula? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Recon inbound. Do we see Cat5 this pass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, friedmators said: worthless init at 988 Init pressures in Global models are irrelevant, really, for their track accuracy. However, the CMC is indeed worthless because it's a primitive, terrible model with massive tropical track errors, and has been horrifically bad on Irma so far, as usual, the worst global model by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, jacindc said: Anyone with encyclopedic recall have analogs for a storm moving northward up literally the exact center of the Florida peninsula? King in 1950 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, sirkan said: Long time listener, first time poster. Looks like onshore flow for both MIA and Tampa/St. Petersburg at 144. You sure about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, friedmators said: Recon inbound. Do we see Cat5 this pass? I think we get close. 150mph is my guess. Do think we will find some 930s pressures too. With all the time and even warmer water ahead of Irma I definitely think she has the potential to bomb out in the low 900s granted she doesn't slam into Hispaniola or Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: ADT down to 937mb, 127kt which would bring the winds up to 145 sustained, inching closer to cat 5... That's still the analysis from 0315Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 lol anyone else catch this at the end of the 18z run? no way jose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirkan Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, TPAwx said: You sure about that? Ugh, you're right. My mistake. I have it backward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildFlower Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: I guess the best (if you can call it that) case scenario would to have the eye-wall go through the Everglades like the new GFS is showing instead of populated areas in and around Miami. Either way, it sucks for Florida though. Obviously any FL hit is an option no one wants, including the Everglades. Everglades is an extremely hot, shallow body of water... remember Wilma? Wilma came across the Everglades and IMO just made her stronger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, sirkan said: Ugh, you're right. My mistake. I have it backward. As depicted below in the GFS Tampa does get onshore flow for about 12-15 hours. It will likely be enough to cause widespread flooding. Miami obviously gets raked on Irma's approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 52 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said: Have you ever seen an advisory state a hurricane's wind velocity in anything other than 5mph increments? And if so, when? I ask only because I've been a weather geek longer than you've been alive and don't ever recall it being done. Not saying it's never happened, only that I have no recollection of it ever being done. I bring this up because the knot to mph conversion does not often fit that 5mph-stepped advisory convenience. If a hurricane was measured at precisely 140kts, would the public advisory round that off, not to the nearest 5mph step of 155 but upward to the 5mph step of 160 that meets Cat 5 criteria? Forgive me if I'm elaborating on something you already know. You are correct that the public advisories list the maximum sustained surface wind speeds (MSW) in mph. However, the NHC calculates that figure based on the unit of knots. Correspondingly, 135 knots is 155 mph (highest-end category 4 intensity), while 140 knots is rounded to the nearest 5 mph increment of 160 mph. Since the NHC uses knots to convert to the unit of mph, one will no longer see an advisory listing a MSW of 95 or 135 mph, respectively. As such, 140 knots x 1.15 = 161 mph (thus, rounded down to an even 160 mph). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Recon found a pressure of 939.5 in the eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, jojo762 said: That's still the analysis from 0315Z. Just updated 935mb, 130kt (150mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirkan Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, TPAwx said: As depicted below in the GFS Tampa does get onshore flow for about 12-15 hours. It will likely be enough to cause widespread flooding. Miami obviously gets raked on Irma's approach. You're absolutely correct. Apologies for the error. While there will be on-shore flow for both regions, they won't occur at the same time. I got a tad ahead of myself and forgot my counter-clockwise direction for some strange reason. So much for good first impressions. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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