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Major Hurricane Irma

NJwx85

By NJwx85,
in Tropical Headquarters

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

One thing the islands have going for them is it looks like Cat 2 and higher surface winds are confined very close to the center, maybe within 10 miles atm.  If the storm can remain fairly compact as it is now over the next 24-36 hours and stay on the forecast track maybe Anguilla, perhaps to a bit of a lesser extent Antigua and St. Martin get a pretty good dose but the others may dodge a bullet.  That's a big if, barring any wobbles or rapid expansion of the wind field or a continuation west a little longer than forecast.  An ERC early tomorrow evening could also be a blessing.  

Yes, and as we know, hurricane force wind field spread, generally underperforms model prediction.  This is by no means an understatement about what effects in a direct eyewall hit will be, just a comment on modeling.  Rockport TX knows what Eyewall winds can be like....

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ncforecaster89

ncforecaster89

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

AVNI is the 18Z GFS and TVCN contains an 18Z GFS weighting so at least those 2 tracks should contain the 18Z RAOBS.

They didn't, as is specified in the NHC forecast discussion at 5 pm EDT: 

Six hourly upper-air soundings began at 1800 UTC today over the
central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude
trough.  In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently sampling
the environment around Irma, and these data will be included in
tonight's 0000 UTC model runs.
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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, hypatia said:

 

An additional concern for this storm, if it takes a track similar to 1926 Miami or 1928 Okeechobee hurricanes, is the Herbert Hoover Dike on the southern end of Lake Okeechobee.  The dike has been known to be in a state of disrepair for quite some time; only recently has Gov. Scott pushed for funding to repair the dike.  The motivation for the funding revolves primarily around preventing more discharges of algae-contaminated water into the intracoastal waterways (which has an impact on tourism).  The project, so far, is badly underfunded: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/palm-beach/fl-pn-lake-okeechobee-money-legislature-20170614-story.html

I worry about the possibility of another flooding disaster, like what happened in 1928 and to a lesser extent in 1926.  Irma, with its large wind field and possible landfalling category 4+ strength, is reminiscent of both of these storms.  If the track is right, there is the potential for a catastrophic storm surge to be generated on Lake Okeechobee.  Folks living in inland places along the lake, like Belle Glade and Clewiston, should pay close attention.

at192804.gif

 

I am greatly concerned about the impact Irma could have. There's a real possibility of another $100 billion or greater disaster. The Great Miami hurricane remains just somewhat less costly than Katrina was in inflation-adjusted terms. Miami is far more developed than it was in 1926. The Lake Okeechobee dike needs repairs as you noted. Hopefully, the worst of Irma will avoid these areas.

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ncforecaster89

ncforecaster89

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

Interesting. I missed that part, so thanks for posting that. I bet from here on out the 6 hour soundings will go into the 6/18z models.

You're most welcome, Jason.  If I remember correctly, the off-cycle (6z/18z) runs will contain that data going forward, as long as the significant threat continues    

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ncforecaster89

ncforecaster89

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Isn't it just going to get stronger and stronger the more it moves into the warmer water . Wouldn't be surprised if it opened up a bit and grew in size 

Typically, a hurricane increases in size following an ERC, and/or as it gains latitude towards the subtropics.  In this case, both variables should apply    

 

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CheeselandSkies

CheeselandSkies

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

GOES00302017248z_Tv23_A.jpg

Looks very Andrew-like. Compact buzzsaw blade with large CDO and relatively minimal banding; although probably somewhat larger than Andrew was already and forecast to get larger. Forecast destination is, ominously, growing more similar by the model run, although the angle of approach will be different and obviously still a lot of time for change.

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dtk

dtk

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

They didn't, as is specified in the NHC forecast discussion at 5 pm EDT: 


Six hourly upper-air soundings began at 1800 UTC today over the
central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude
trough.  In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently sampling
the environment around Irma, and these data will be included in
tonight's 0000 UTC model runs.

Any observations taken between 1500 and 2059 and having arrived to the center before 2045 will have been assimilated into the 1800 utc gfs.  You are misunderstanding their point in that the giv data will start arriving for the 00 utc cycle.  Anything taken between 2100 and 0259 will be used to initialize the 00 utc gfs.

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Jrad08

Jrad08

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Irma looks amazing on IR loop. It finally repaired the NE flank which was feeling some restriction from the ridge. It might completely bomb out tonight.

Was getting ready to post this verbatim. Wouldn't be surprised to see Cat 5 by morning.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

With the blanket of warming that has happened all over the globe in the last 20 years, I think we can upgrade all climo stats to lower pressureskew these days. Maybe a whole category. In other words, Cat 3 = Cat 4, etc. Plus this is one the best looking hurricanes in the beginning stages maybe ever.

Perhaps, all other variables being held constant. I haven't seen literature where this issue is examined in great detail. Research is probably ongoing.

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Silver Meteor

Silver Meteor

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Actually,  it's officially another 20 knots needed to attain category-five intensity (140 knots/157 mph).  

Have you ever seen an advisory state a hurricane's wind velocity in anything other than 5mph increments? And if so, when? I ask only because I've been a weather geek longer than you've been alive and don't ever recall it being done. Not saying it's never happened, only that I have no recollection of it ever being done.

I bring this up because the knot to mph conversion does not often fit that 5mph-stepped advisory convenience. If a hurricane was measured at precisely 140kts, would the public advisory round that off, not to the nearest 5mph step of 155 but upward to the 5mph step of 160 that meets Cat 5 criteria?

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Jackstraw

Jackstraw

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Turks and Caicos island are going to be in trouble. Might get in the strongest part of the storm on projected track.

The northern islands are less than 36 hours away from the brunt and should be of immediate concern if it doesn't gain some latitude tomorrow and even then it's going to be really close.

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