Eskimo Joe Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Am I the only one who wouldn't be shocked if we wake up with Irma on the doorstep of Cat 5 intensity? She's well organized and in perfect position to take advantage of the nocturnal maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Am I the only one who wouldn't be shocked if we wake up with Irma on the doorstep of Cat 5 intensity? She's well organized and in perfect position to take advantage of the nocturnal maximum. Not a bad point sir, but the eye has been looking a touch ragged the last three or four frames...another ERC maybe?http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17570&y=7376&z=5&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=14&p[1]=0&opacity[0]=1&opacity[1]=0&hidden[0]=0&hidden[1]=0&pause=20170904231534&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Am I the only one who wouldn't be shocked if we wake up with Irma on the doorstep of Cat 5 intensity? She's well organized and in perfect position to take advantage of the nocturnal maximum. Given the current satellite presentation and recon obs, id be very surprised... as long as there isn't another ERC, which basing off of the recon radar data that doesn't appear imminent. Only 15mph to go to Cat 5 strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 All this talk (fairly) about Florida, but dear God Guadalupe, St Kitts & Nevis, Antigua, etc are going to get absolutely raked over the coals with a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Major runs on gas and grocery stores already in S. Florida. The hype train has already started. This isn't the typical snide internet way of asking this question, but what's your source? (Got friends in PBC, sincerely asking--mainstream news, social media, etc?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, thess said: This isn't the typical snide internet way of asking this question, but what's your source? (Got friends in PBC, sincerely asking--mainstream news, social media, etc?) A lot of reports/pictures on social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, canderson said: All this talk (fairly) about Florida, but dear God Guadalupe, St Kitts & Nevis, Antigua, etc are going to get absolutely raked over the coals with a monster. Outer bands are just getting in range of Martinique radar now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Major runs on gas and grocery stores already in S. Florida. The hype train has already started. No water at Wal Mart, generators going fast at Lowes, & lines of people filling gas cans all the way up here in the W FL Panhandle (Pensacola area)!!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, thess said: This isn't the typical snide internet way of asking this question, but what's your source? (Got friends in PBC, sincerely asking--mainstream news, social media, etc?) https://twitter.com/gpallone13/status/904854234562265089 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Given the current satellite presentation and recon obs, id be very surprised... as long as there isn't another ERC, which basing off of the recon radar data that doesn't appear imminent. Only 15mph to go to Cat 5 strength. Actually, it's officially another 20 knots needed to attain category-five intensity (140 knots/157 mph). Edit: But, to your main point, it wouldn't surprise me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 18z HWRF misses Cuba, 920's near the FL straights at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 18z HMON misses Cuba as well, in the FL keys as the run ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 It appears there was a decent shift East on the 18z NAVGEM as compared to the 12z NAVGEM. This is one confusing storm and at times, the models seem to be just as confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, canderson said: All this talk (fairly) about Florida, but dear God Guadalupe, St Kitts & Nevis, Antigua, etc are going to get absolutely raked over the coals with a monster. I was just in St Kitts and Tortola in July, most of the homes are built out of reinforced concrete. Problem is I don't think that's sufficient to withstand above cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, senc30 said: It appears there was a decent shift East on the 18z NAVGEM as compared to the 12z NAVGEM. This is one confusing storm and at times, the models seem to be just as confusing. Essentially the 18Z GFS track from LF forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: Not a bad point sir, but the eye has been looking a touch ragged the last three or four frames...another ERC maybe?http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17570&y=7376&z=5&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=14&p[1]=0&opacity[0]=1&opacity[1]=0&hidden[0]=0&hidden[1]=0&pause=20170904231534&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider Disagree, the eye is looking better than it has in awhile and deep Convevtion is now 2/3rds wrapped around the CDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, canderson said: All this talk (fairly) about Florida, but dear God Guadalupe, St Kitts & Nevis, Antigua, etc are going to get absolutely raked over the coals with a monster. Yes. It's going to be a very fine line for the northern most islands. Right now Anguilla is going to be roughly 15 miles to the SW of the center of the storm on the current official track. They seem to have been taking this very seriously and are about as prepared as they can be. But as has been said before, those islands haven't experienced a storm of this magnitude in over 20 years, since Luis in '95. And this one could be stronger. We will get a real sense of what Irma has to offer come early Wed. if the current track verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 23 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: Not a bad point sir, but the eye has been looking a touch ragged the last three or four frames...another ERC maybe?http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17570&y=7376&z=5&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=14&p[1]=0&opacity[0]=1&opacity[1]=0&hidden[0]=0&hidden[1]=0&pause=20170904231534&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider The last recon pass showed not exactly dual maxima but definitely a spreading out of the max wind field in the NE quadrant. I do think earlier in Irma's life we've perhaps thrown around the term ERC a little too loosely (there was definitely at least one) but that could be what's beginning to occur now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, Dunkman said: The last recon pass showed not exactly dual maxima but definitely a spreading out of the max wind field in the NE quadrant. I do think earlier in Irma's life we've perhaps thrown around the term ERC a little too loosely (there was definitely at least one) but that could be what's beginning to occur now. That's certainly what it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Is there a GOES 16 loop for Irma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, senc30 said: It appears there was a decent shift East on the 18z NAVGEM as compared to the 12z NAVGEM. This is one confusing storm and at times, the models seem to be just as confusing. We've been tracking this storm on the models when it was in the 240-264 hr range, if not longer. We are still 5-7 days away. I've been looking at wx models since I was 14, I'm 31 now, you're never going to see consensus across the board for any major event, ever at these time frames. That being said, this will be a tough forecast because we have the Cuba factor (will it cross South enough to hit Cuba and weaken), what point will it turn N. If it turns N early enough and sits off the SE Coast where will it make 2nd landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Let's not forget that most the guidance is showing a very large wind field and in order for that to occur it's going to need to undergo several ERC. Hopefully most of the islands get lucky with a well timed ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 No evidence of an ongoing ERC. MW imagery doesn't show concentric eyewalls and recon doesn't show any evidence of double wind maxima. It appears that the eye is larger now, and it's clearing out. This probably means it will start an intensifying trend soon after being stable during most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 My family and my wife's family in south Florida are asking my opinion. I don't know what to say. I've been a hobbyist for 20 years and on these boards for 10 years. People are panicking down there. Flights and hotel rooms are limited. It's a really tough call right now. I'm telling them all not to panic and to make decisions tomorrow night, but I'm really not sure what to say. This storm really scares me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, psv88 said: My family and my wife's family in south Florida are asking my opinion. I don't know what to say. I've been a hobbyist for 20 years and on these boards for 10 years. People are panicking down there. Flights and hotel rooms are limited. It's a really tough call right now. I'm telling them all not to panic and to make decisions tomorrow night, but I'm really not sure what to say. This storm really scares me. The thing is that it really won't take much for it to be a little east and hit SC instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I was just in St Kitts and Tortola in July, most of the homes are built out of reinforced concrete. Problem is I don't think that's sufficient to withstand above cat 3. Was in Barbados and Matinique for a week each in December. Martinique in particular has serious dangers wth mudslides and poor inland home-type structures. Sending all those down there good thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 ADT estimates are now up to 120kts, which continues to go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: My family and my wife's family in south Florida are asking my opinion. I don't know what to say. I've been a hobbyist for 20 years and on these boards for 10 years. People are panicking down there. Flights and hotel rooms are limited. It's a really tough call right now. I'm telling them all not to panic and to make decisions tomorrow night, but I'm really not sure what to say. This storm really scares me. What part of South Florida? I have family in Boynton Beach. I told them to get out. They are flying up here on Friday. They were coming up here for a wedding anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Morris said: The thing is that it really won't take much for it to be a little east and hit SC instead. I know. But if they don't prepare now, they are sitting ducks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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