beanskip Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 1:36 PM, forecasterjack said: Several hours post landfall and hurricane force wind gusts still span the entire width of the peninsula plus some according to the ECMWF. Stunning and terrifying https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/florida/gusts-3h-mph/20170911-0000z.html Expand Would love to see those maps as Irma progresses up the peninsula. Lots of confusion and contradictory info about how strong winds will be in the central and then northern part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Irma still struggling a bit with dry air in the inner eyewall. Likely downsloped off of the SE Cuban mountains. Unfortunately, that's likely to let up as the storm moves away from those mountains. Loop: https://weather.us/satellite/745-w-213-n/satellite-water-vapor-superhd-5min.html#play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 She looks to be right on NHC track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 1:36 PM, forecasterjack said: Several hours post landfall and hurricane force wind gusts still span the entire width of the peninsula plus some according to the ECMWF. Stunning and terrifying https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/florida/gusts-3h-mph/20170911-0000z.html Expand Gust potential is probably being underestimated My about 10mph or so in some of the local HLS statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 1:41 PM, beanskip said: Would love to see those maps as Irma progresses up the peninsula. Lots of confusion and contradictory info about how strong winds will be in the central and then northern part of the state. Expand Check 'em out yourself here: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/florida/gusts-3h-mph/20170911-0000z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I don't think it's wishcasting (not that any human should wish for this to bomb out and pose even more of a threat) to think that Irma could make landfall as a cat 5, even just briefly. That bath water between FL and Cuba and the lack of sheer in the environment is ridiculously conducive to RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 A recent ASCAT pass caught a good glimpse of the Eastern side of Irma and her massive wind field. https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_META/zooms/WMBas87.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 1:49 PM, Upper Level LOL said: I don't think it's wishcasting (not that any human should wish for this to bomb out and pose even more of a threat) to think that Irma could make landfall as a cat 5, even just briefly. That bath water between FL and Cuba and the lack of sheer in the environment is ridiculously conducive to RI Expand The core looks much better than it has in a while, cold cloudtops and deeper convection. Sustained surface winds now appear to be around 130/135, we can assume gusts to 150. Most structures in South Florida can handle winds around 130, as soon as you push 140 severe structural failure begins, so intensity from here on out becomes MORE important than track IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 1:50 PM, NJwx85 said: A recent ASCAT pass caught a good glimpse of the Eastern side of Irma and her massive wind field. Expand can you try again? @NJwx85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 1:41 PM, beanskip said: Would love to see those maps as Irma progresses up the peninsula. Lots of confusion and contradictory info about how strong winds will be in the central and then northern part of the state. Expand You can get them at weather.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 1:51 PM, psv88 said: The core looks much better than it has in a while, cold cloudtops and deeper convection. Sustained surface winds now appear to be around 130/135, we can assume gusts to 150. Most structures in South Florida can handle winds around 130, as soon as you push 140 severe structural failure begins, so intensity from here on out becomes MORE important than track IMHO Expand As I posted earlier, most of the structures in SE Florida are built to handle strong Easterly winds, when you flip them around to Southwesterly, not so much. It's one of the reasons why Wilma was one of the most damaging hurricanes in recent history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 1:53 PM, AlaskaETC said: You can get them at weather.us Expand right here: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/florida/gusts-3h-mph/20170911-0000z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 Irma is starting to have that look again, I would expect recon to find a strengthening system soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papa Joe Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 1:41 PM, moneypitmike said: Thanks. nice pic. Expand You see the train station? BTW - still not sure which key will catch the brunt, but if you can imagine, Marathon or Islamorada WILL be looking like this unless the storm develops a conscience and spins out to the GOM to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 1:31 PM, Brasiluvsnow said: Can anyone predict the storm surge of Irma and how many feet it will be ? I know that much depends on the track and I understand that with the rotation of the storm that when Irma hits the East side of the storm would get counter clockwise strong winds and then later as Irma continues up Florida to the North the backside of the storm and rotation would now surge on the West and back side of the storm------> do I have that correct ? Also I just watched the weather channel and they showed a chart for the predicted storm surge and they were saying max 6 to 9 foot surges on the West side of Florida and not much for Miami or the East side so Im confused ? A 6 to 9 foot surge would do tremendous damage but I read many pages back where mets on this thread were saying the surge could be 15 feet or higher , would the fact that Irma has been heading this way for days and had time to build up the surge effect the height of it , I would think yes . Does the weather channel have the potential max surge numbers wrong ?,,,,,,thoughts and answers appreciated . Expand Brasiluvsnow, here's a good source from the NOAA: http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/psurge2.0/index.php?S=Irma2017&Adv=34&Ty=e10&Z=z4&D=agl&Ti=cum&Msg=17&Help=about Miami is somewhat protected from storm surge due to the steep shelf drop off its coastline. Areas with longer shallow sloping coastlines are more prone to higher storm surge. In both cases it is due to how the surge wave interacts with the ocean floor along the coast. You can read more about it here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 1:43 PM, Akeem the African Dream said: Gust potential is probably being underestimated My about 10mph or so in some of the local HLS statements. Expand Great map to illustrate why bickering over exact landfalls is not priductive, even the Euro solution puts devastating storm surge up Biscayne Bay and hurricane force winds in all of south Florida for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coopdog Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 1:56 PM, NJwx85 said: Irma is starting to have that look again, I would expect recon to find a strengthening system soon. Expand Has anyone heard any info on how the Turks and Caicos faired? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 1:56 PM, NJwx85 said: Irma is starting to have that look again, I would expect recon to find a strengthening system soon. Expand Last pass from NOAA found 150 kts FL which is the highest I've seen in awhile. Still, people have been calling for strengthening for like 18 hours based on satellite and general spidey sense. As a matter of fact most posts in this thread use spidey sense as evidence. Anyway, pressure still seems to be slowly creeping up so it's a bit of a mixed bag at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 1:57 PM, lwg8tr0514 said: Great map to illustrate why bickering over exact landfalls is not priductive, even the Euro solution puts devastating storm surge up Biscayne Bay and hurricane force winds in all of south Florida for hours. Expand Right. But the difference between a swfl LF and sefl LF is significant in terms of population and business structures. The difference between 110mph in downtown MIA and 160mph is massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenavp Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Looking pretty ragged here: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:03 PM, Dunkman said: Last pass from NOAA found 150 kts FL which is the highest I've seen in awhile. Still, people have been calling for strengthening for like 18 hours based on satellite and general spidey sense. As a matter of fact most posts in this thread use spidey sense as evidence. Anyway, pressure still seems to be slowly creeping up so it's a bit of a mixed bag at the moment. Expand It was clearly undergoing an ERC and probably feeling some adverse effects from the close pass to Hispaniola yesterday. Radar and recon confirms that the ERC is just about completed and the IR presentation has improved remarkably the last few hours. 150kts at flight level supports an upgrade back to 135kts or 155MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 1:57 PM, lwg8tr0514 said: Great map to illustrate why bickering over exact landfalls is not priductive, even the Euro solution puts devastating storm surge up Biscayne Bay and hurricane force winds in all of south Florida for hours. Expand Disagree here. Most of South Florida can handle cat 1 winds, cat 4 is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 1:57 PM, LawdogGRNJ said: Brasiluvsnow, here's a good source from the NOAA: http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/psurge2.0/index.php?S=Irma2017&Adv=34&Ty=e10&Z=z4&D=agl&Ti=cum&Msg=17&Help=about Miami is somewhat protected from storm surge due to the steep shelf drop off its coastline. Areas with longer shallow sloping coastlines are more prone to higher storm surge. In both cases it is due to how the surge wave interacts with the ocean floor along the coast. You can read more about it here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge Expand Lawdog, great info thank you ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:06 PM, kenavp said: Looking pretty ragged here: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-10 Expand flushing out that Cuban mountain dry air, its almost past now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:06 PM, kenavp said: Looking pretty ragged here: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-10 Expand That's because the IEW is now just about gone and the eye can start to clear out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 12z nam looks like a near landfall in cuba at hr 24 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:09 PM, DopplerWx said: 12z nam looks like a near landfall in cuba at hr 24 FWIW Expand LOL, 0z model run had a landfall in Annapolis, model is a DISASTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:06 PM, psv88 said: Disagree here. Most of South Florida can handle cat 1 winds, cat 4 is different. Expand Let's not forget that higher gusts can occur than the maximum sustained winds. Just because the system might make landfall as a high end CAT 4 doesn't mean that CAT 5 wind gusts won't occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:09 PM, DopplerWx said: 12z nam looks like a near landfall in cuba at hr 24 FWIW Expand Not much. The NAM should be ignored when dealing with tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 You can see Irma carving out it's new eye radius on GOES right now. Incredible to watch. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-12-1-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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