Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,910
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    WichitaChiefSam
    Newest Member
    WichitaChiefSam
    Joined

Major Hurricane Irma

NJwx85

By NJwx85,
in Tropical Headquarters

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 7.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
hazwoper

hazwoper

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2017 at 12:16 PM, Roy said:

Some people wondered if the west trend would continue, and it keeps happening. People in Miami may never listen to evacuation orders again....

Expand  

You evacuate due to the possibility of a major hitting your area, not because it is certain.  By the time it is certain, it is too late and many are now in harms way.  This has been the way it has gone for years.  Silly comment.  Those folks know it is an abundance of caution.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
DCAlexandria

DCAlexandria

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2017 at 12:18 PM, jbenedet said:

I agree. Also the 0z Euro has a west track that should begin right around now and last for a good part of the day. If that doesn't happen, or is shorter in duration than advertised, the LF near the SW coast is far less likely. Either way, we should find out over the next  6-12 hrs if this south/west trend is real. 

 

Expand  

Yeah and right now its certainly moving North of Due West.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Papa Joe

Papa Joe

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2017 at 12:19 PM, moneypitmike said:

What's the take on the lower Keys?  The west comments all talk about the peninsula but I've seen little in the way of Key West, etc.

Expand  

The further west it tracks, the more of the middle/upper keys will get over wash, but I expect the lower keys will get Gulf side flooding.

 

For what over wash will do, google some 1935 Islamorada storm pics. Especially the ones with the train engine.

ETA: Here is a pic from the wiki page on the '35 storm. Note that the damage was what happened after the reef mitigated the surge.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane

 

 

Train_derailed_by_the_1935_hurricane.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites
hudsonvalley21

hudsonvalley21

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2017 at 11:51 AM, Paragon said:

Some people have the idea that they're going to escape the surge by going higher up- which is really bad for the reasons you stated.  I'm not sure this can get back to Cat 5 again but it's definitely better to have it weakening right now than start intensifying from 170 later on- I'm not sure where that'd lead and really not willing to find out (even from afar.)

 

Expand  

In addition to going high up in tall buildings, in a city such as Maimi, there are high-rise buildings close toghether that will cause an "Venturi effect" that will increase the winds between them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jasons

jasons

Posted
Posted

My goodness what a nail biter. Went to bed with folks debating if the NAM was onto something, and wake-up to folks wondering if this goes to Fort Myers. I'm less confident today than I was yesterday. What a nail biter.

Funny, I mentioned the potential major issues with the hi-rises last night and it was blown off by some.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2017 at 12:34 PM, jasons said:

My goodness what a nail biter. Went to bed with folks debating if the NAM was onto something, and wake-up to folks wondering if this goes to Fort Myers. I'm less confident today than I was yesterday. What a nail biter.

Funny, I mentioned the potential major issues with the hi-rises last night and it was blown off by some.

Expand  

I guess they forgot what Wilma did to the high rises.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
lwg8tr0514

lwg8tr0514

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2017 at 12:08 PM, Derecho! said:

Even two days ago the national media was hammering away at Miami as absolute certain Ground Zero which I raised an eyebrow at. 

Concerning there isn't a single ECMWF ensemble member East of Miami. 

Expand  

Have you been reading here at all last few days? Exact placement of the eye not critical, Miami still in very dire straits right now, being close if not in the RFQ.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
kenavp

kenavp

Posted
Posted

Very happy to wake up and see a relatively ragged core. Sometimes these massive systems just never seem to recover from such an internal disruption. Hoping the NHC was correct with its earlier forecasts of steady weakening up to landfall. 

A further west track and a high end cat 3 or low end cat 4 would alleviate so much potential devastation. And a track up the spine would also avoid significant damage to the west coast. Trying to make lemonade out of lemons here maybe, but the current trends are very favorable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2017 at 12:41 PM, hazwoper said:

A LF on west side Everglades NP is far better than a LF on the  east side!  Not good for Keys however, and Naples could now be looking at some serious wind issues.

Expand  

Yeah that has to much NNW component after landfall.  If it came in there and went N or NNE it would avoid population centers for awhile 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Seminole

Seminole

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2017 at 12:38 PM, packbacker said:

Euro has been quicker with NE trough and is now connecting the atlantic ridge to the lakes ridge...maybe a tick more west if that keeps up.  Tight agreement with bulk of members over the keys now at hour 60.

ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_us_4.png

Expand  

If this trend continues this could end up being a west coast huger. Ala a West Coast Mathew. Terrible from Naples all the way to Tampa/St. Pete 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Derecho!

Derecho!

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2017 at 12:39 PM, lwg8tr0514 said:

Have you been reading here at all last few days? Exact placement of the eye not critical, Miami still in very dire straits right now, being close if not in the RFQ.  

Expand  

Oh please; it was more concern for Tampa than declaring Miami out of the woods.  

There is an unfortunate history in Florida of people having weird geographic constructs. In Charley (a tiny storm, mind you) people in the landfall area (despite having adequate hurricane watches and warnings) had a rock solid belief that landfall would be in Tampa and they would be unaffected;  which is what the national media hammered away on. It took a deviation of a few degrees to bring it into Port Charlotte. This is still perceived by the public as some sort of massive, unprecedented forecast error which actually isn't true. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2017 at 12:45 PM, Seminole said:

If this trend continues this could end up being a west coast huger. Ala a West Coast Mathew. Terrible from Naples all the way to Tampa/St. Pete 

Expand  

Actually far worse for the west coast of Fla vs what Matthew was for the east coast of Fla- for two reasons.  1) west coast of Fla will be exposed to the RFQ if the west trend continues 2) the west coastline of Fla actually would slope towards Irma while the east coastline of Fla sloped away from Matthew.  All of that has major surge implications (not to mention the geography of the basin in that region makes it much more vulnerable to surge than the east coast of Fla.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

More pronounced jog to the NW on the last couple of frames.  That is probably just a blip within the general WNW track.  Looks like she sucked in some dry air but has handled it well.  Outflow looks really good all the way around, but the core still needs some work.  SSTs are very favorable, but interaction with Cuba could offset.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
DCAlexandria

DCAlexandria

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2017 at 12:52 PM, Cold Rain said:

More pronounced jog to the NW on the last couple of frames.  That is probably just a blip within the general WNW track.  Looks like she sucked in some dry air but has handled it well.  Outflow looks really good all the way around, but the core still needs some work.  SSTs are very favorable, but interaction with Cuba could offset.

Expand  

I see that too.  If that last a few more frames....

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OUGrad05

OUGrad05

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2017 at 12:52 PM, Cold Rain said:

More pronounced jog to the NW on the last couple of frames.  That is probably just a blip within the general WNW track.  Looks like she sucked in some dry air but has handled it well.  Outflow looks really good all the way around, but the core still needs some work.  SSTs are very favorable, but interaction with Cuba could offset.

Expand  

There's some data to suggest that it'll avoid cuba, despite the Euro's better handle on this storm I really wouldn't be surprised if it manages to stay far enough away from Cuba to prevent significant disruption.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2017 at 12:20 PM, hazwoper said:

You evacuate due to the possibility of a major hitting your area, not because it is certain.  By the time it is certain, it is too late and many are now in harms way.  This has been the way it has gone for years.  Silly comment.  Those folks know it is an abundance of caution.

Expand  

You have a lot of faith in the average person's understanding of the cone. No matter what, Miami will get bad stuff no doubt. The storm is huge. Just saying a big shift west means the perception on the ground will be less, and folks will say in future storms they survived a major so it's not that bad when one comes that hits them in the core directly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
lwg8tr0514

lwg8tr0514

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2017 at 12:47 PM, Derecho! said:

Oh please; it was more concern for Tampa than declaring Miami out of the woods.  

There is an unfortunate history in Florida of people having weird geographic constructs. In Charley (a tiny storm, mind you) people in the landfall area (despite having adequate hurricane watches and warnings) had a rock solid belief that landfall would be in Tampa and they would be unaffected;  which is what the national media hammered away on. It took a deviation of a few degrees to bring it into Port Charlotte. This is still perceived by the public as some sort of massive, unprecedented forecast error which actually isn't true. 

Expand  

The NHC is still looking at this being a big problem for the EC of Florida.  I was watching WPLG in Miami this am and guy from the NHC, they are discounting a serious jog west at this point like cutting across the Keys, like the 1935 no name, and this being a GOM storm.  The guy was very, VERY, VERY concerned about SE Florida population centers and less so about this being a problem for Tampa at this point.  I like that NHC is not as reactive as some here, getting twitchy at every model run or thing they see on the IR.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Seminole

Seminole

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2017 at 12:54 PM, JC-CT said:
  On 9/8/2017 at 12:45 PM, Seminole said:
If this trend continues this could end up being a west coast huger. Ala a West Coast Mathew. Terrible from Naples all the way to Tampa/St. Pete 
 
Expand  

The trend has been for narrowing down the possible landfall within the expected area.

Expand  

Gulf coast huger is still in the 'expected area'. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...