franklin NCwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 10:21 AM, msuwx said: Barring negative interaction in some way with Cuba, I think Irma has a very good chance at strengthening over the next 24 hours or so. It's a big hurricane, so there's a limit to some extent, but I think the pressure could drop a decent amount. Expand Do you think it can become a cat 5 again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 6:11 AM, MillvilleWx said: Kind of surprised. I thought the same, but really didn't take too much of a toll on the end result for Keys. Slightly weaker in pressure, but winds were fairly consistent. Splitting hairs at a few mph. Horrendous run for MTH and entire island chain. Miami I'm sure would take this and run. Feel bad for Keys though. Edit: Actually deepened further as it entered the Florida Bay. That's got the warmest waters in all the Eastern Gulf area. 90-92 degrees. Horrible run for Naples Expand Is that the same general area where the 1935 hurricane reached Cat 5 status? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 10:21 AM, Morris said: The pressure has risen 8 mb since last night. It might only be a Cat 3 at this moment. Expand Seriously doubt it. On 9/8/2017 at 10:23 AM, franklin NCwx said: Do you think it can become a cat 5 again? Expand Yes, quite possible assuming it completes the ERC, as it appears it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Something important to note is the location where Irma is forecasted to make landfall is incredibly flat and marsh-like. Southern Fla. is arguably the most hospitable area in the CONUS for a hurricane to make landfall. Given a Euro/GFS track I think it's more than likely that Irma maintains at least a high end Cat 3 status up to Lake Okeechobee. Also the latest GFS/Euro track has southeast FLA in the RFQ, meaning winds will be strongest and the background flow will be additive, which will be especially important as she accelerates upon making LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Looks like the colder tops are expanding again around the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On Cuba radar you can see the last remnants of the inner eye wall and outer eye wall pretty clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 She looks VERY healthy now. Rapidly expanding in size, huge decrease in cloud top temps. Best she has looked in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 10:27 AM, Paragon said: Is that the same general area where the 1935 hurricane reached Cat 5 status? Expand No. The Labor Day cane in '35 achieved Cat 5 status long before FL Bay in the Eastern Straits. It went directly over Islamorada in the Keys and whipped the town clean off the map and took years before it was habitable again. Here's the track of the canes lifespan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 10:34 AM, MillvilleWx said: No. The Labor Day cane in '35 achieved Cat 5 status long before FL Bay in the Eastern Straits. It went directly over Islamorada in the Keys and whipped the town clean off the map and took years before it was habitable again. Here's the track of the canes lifespan. Expand Thanks! One of the interesting stories I heard about that one was that the winds were so fierce that friction with the sand actually caused sparks and fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENC2017 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 What is keeping it doing a rapid turn west and missing Nc entirely? Everyone here is scared this will be a rerun of Matthew and be expected to turn and doesn't at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Inner eye looks to be in the flat tire phase now, some cool satellite pics ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 10:34 AM, MillvilleWx said: No. The Labor Day cane in '35 achieved Cat 5 status long before FL Bay in the Eastern Straits. It went directly over Islamorada in the Keys and whipped the town clean off the map and took years before it was habitable again. Here's the track of the canes lifespan. Expand Near as I can figure, the closest analogy is Donna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 10:41 AM, ENC2017 said: What is keeping it doing a rapid turn west and missing Nc entirely? Everyone here is scared this will be a rerun of Matthew and be expected to turn and doesn't at the last minute. Expand If I'm not mistaken, there is a shortwave to the west that will grab Irma and pull it inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 10:48 AM, bluewave said: The westward shift on 0z Euro keeps the core of eastern eyewall just west of the big SE FL population centers. New run old run Who knows though. It's really gonna be a crapshoot exactly where it tracks over Florida Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Are we avoiding Cuban airspace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 10:54 AM, DCAlexandria said: Who knows though. It's really gonna be a crapshoot exactly where it tracks over Florida Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand Those shifts are all in the margin of error at this point. 30-50 mile swings are nothing. The eye could be that big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 10:54 AM, DCAlexandria said: Who knows though. It's really gonna be a crapshoot exactly where it tracks over Florida Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand The model runs today and tomorrow will be really big in determining the final landfall. It's certainly within the margin of track error at 60-72 hrs to shift back to the east again closer to MIA. Last few Euro runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 10:48 AM, bluewave said: The westward shift on 0z Euro keeps the core of eastern eyewall just west of the big SE FL population centers. New run old run Expand Thanks for posting. Is that the closest pass to Miami? Seperately, the exact track of the eye will never be resolved, and errors inside 48 hrs, can easily be 50 miles or more as a result of nuanced wobbles and mesoscale effects. That said, I think the important take away here is the graze track has lost considerable weight and if the east coast takes a direct hit it will most likely be in the strongest quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 If it does take a Euro track, the final effects in Ft Myers/Naples will be a lot worse than I-95. Still hurricane force winds there and disruption, but nothing catastrophic. The GFS is a much different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 10:59 AM, jbenedet said: Thanks for posting. Is that the closest pass to Miami? Seperately, the exact track of the eye will never be resolved, and errors inside 48 hrs, can easily be 50 miles or more as a result of nuanced wobbles and mesoscale effects. That said, I think the important take away here is the graze track has lost considerable weight and if the east coast takes a direct hit it will most likely be in the strongest quadrant. Expand See my reply above to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Mountains of Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee look to take a pounding on 00z Euro. Possibly lots of power outages in these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 This may have been posted but, here is a link to Cuban radar. http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 11:01 AM, NavarreDon said: This may have been posted but, here is a link to Cuban radar. http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif Expand You can see the storm growing in that shot quite beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Treat these models as polls people.. MOE is ~50m just like the MOE on polls are 3-5% good idea where its going, but it'll never be exact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Surface and Gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 At first glance this morning Irma looking healthier on radar imagery. When she hits the Fla straits bathtub I can't see how re- intensification doesn't ramp up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I'll be interested to see how the fluctuations in intensity influence the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 The dual wind max seems to be gone on that last recon track into her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 11:02 AM, HO1088 said: If the ECMWF continues a west trend the area from MIA-FLL-PBI won't see too much damage. Expand Big if. Even if the current ECMWF were to verify the surge comes up into MIA. Also...if you have a 40 mile wide eye it still puts those areas in the eye wall. Sure it could go west...and then again...it could go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Would any of the meteorologists here care to share their best guesses about the overall model track shifts? We've seen an east trend, west trend, east a little bit and now west shift overnight so that Florida landfall may be just on the left side of Key Largo. LF closer to Homestead? Next collective model shift and why, please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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