David-LI Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I'm hoping for a NAM solution or this will be a complete disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:50 AM, psv88 said: Does the eye come inland on the GFS? Expand Yes, near Marathon Key and then right up US-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Riding right on the FLA east coast. This is an awful run and will be terrible for GA/western SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 hugging the fl coast thru 84, maybe a tick faster than 18z but pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Even though GFS brings the core across Miami and straddles the coast, the pressure drops a bit per GFS from around 970 mb to 967 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 This is full of lots of woah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:51 AM, David-LI said: I'm hoping for a NAM solution or this would be a complete disaster. Expand Yeah and if the NAM actually verified you would have a major hurricane heading for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:51 AM, NJwx85 said: Yes, near Marathon Key and then right up US-1. Expand So it's identical to 18z, but stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:50 AM, psv88 said: Does the eye come inland on the GFS? Expand Yes. Irma crosses North Key Largo and moves northward across Miami-Miami Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:53 AM, psv88 said: So it's identical to 18z, but stronger? Expand It's a few miles East of 18z. Just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Correct me if I’m wrong but on the GFS at 500mb the NE trof does look stronger then previous runs. Maybe, just maybe it could pick up the storm just enough that a Florida landfall doesn’t happen... especially if that NE energy trends stronger going forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Anyway, Don Sutherland's post about the NAM's 03z Irma position vs where it actually is should put it to rest, even if the NAM somehow nails the behavior of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:53 AM, NJwx85 said: How many times does it need to be said that the GFS pressures are way off? Expand The exact pressure isn't the concern, it is the depiction of pressure dropping after the initial landfall. If so, maximum gusts will persist for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:54 AM, olafminesaw said: Expand Can you post the next 2 frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:52 AM, winterymix said: Even though GFS brings the core across Miami and straddles the coast, the pressure drops a bit per GFS from around 970 mb to 967 mb. Expand I'm not sure what you're looking at. The GFS shows dropping pressures up to landfall and then rising pressures as it rides the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:58 AM, swamplover56 said: Can you post the next 2 frames Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyHolikWillFindYou Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 4:05 AM, AlaskaETC said: Expand Need moar frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 10:40 p.m. The U.S. Consulate General in Curaçao says it believes about 6,000 Americans are stranded on St. Martin after Hurricane Irma leveled the Caribbean island. http://www.miamiherald.com/entertainment/celebrities/article171693557.html edit: that actually is the right link ^^ must have been filed under the wrong category by the Herald. Either way it's an AP article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 FWIW the CMC matches up well with the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Canadian GGEM landfall identical to GFS, but 6 hr faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 That is the same, exact barrier island on which Andrew made landfall. Poor Homestead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 4:10 AM, Stormlover74 said: FWIW the CMC matches up well with the gfs Expand How does it compare to its previous runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Canadian tracks it from Charleston to Columbia to Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 4:16 AM, psv88 said: How does it compare to its previous runs? Expand Down in S Florida it was a hair east of the 12Z run. I was surprised to see both globals go east so far when the 00Z hurricane models and the 18Z GFS looked like they were moving towards the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 So this is clearly going under an ERC.... and yet it's at 919mb? That's just insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 4:18 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Down in S Florida it was a hair east of the 12Z run. I was surprised to see both globals go east so far when the 00Z hurricane models and the 18Z GFS looked like they were moving towards the Euro Expand Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Eyewall replacement clearly showing up on IR now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 4:20 AM, LandofLincoln said: So this is clearly going under an ERC.... and yet it's at 919mb? That's just insane. Expand And with the latest recon pass now, it only seems to be a cat 4, honestly for the moment. Dvorak is also down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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