Hoosier Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 9:21 PM, Dunkman said: I know someone measured 909mb in Camille (and was found to be accurate). Not sure if there's anything lower than that. Expand Yeah, I actually just found something stating ~900 mb in Waveland, MS. Not sure if it's accurate. In any case, can Irma get close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 GOES16 satellite data is showing Irma restrengthening and rebuilding its western side this evening. Not a good sign for Florida. Irma was having trouble with dry air and shear earlier today, she seems to have kicked those right out of the way. Loop: https://weather.us/satellite/745-w-213-n/top-alert-superhd-15min.html#play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 As of 5 EDT (21 UTC ), Irma has been Cat 5 storm for 66 consecutive hours. Satellite era record for N. Atlantic was 42 hours (Mitch, David). https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/905898336053370880?p=p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 18z GFS a bit SW of 12z position through 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On my phone, however through 30 on 18z GFS looks a bit further south of its 12z position and is darn close to Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I know people are looking at the 18Z runs but I placed the 12Z EURO and 12 GFS on the simple chart below. Quite convincing how the range of uncertainty is collapsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 9:29 PM, wkd said: I wonder if the more northerly track is due to the slight jog north that occurred shortly after 12Z. See if the GFS follows suit. Expand The GFS this storm has clearly sh*t the bed, I'd throw it out, not been verifying, even the NHC has jogged the track slightly west. A "brush" with the coast is appearing unlikely right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 9:41 PM, winterymix said: I know people are looking at the 18Z runs but I placed the 12Z EURO and 12 GFS on the simple chart below. Quite convincing how the range of uncertainty is collapsing. Expand EPS spread way down as well. Range of possible outcomes is shrinking I agree https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/724-w-263-n/2017090712-240-irma.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Hard to argue against a westward model trend - 12z Euro, 12z GFS, 12z HWRF, 12z HMON and now -- it would appear, through 42 hours at least -- the 18z GFS, all west of prior run positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 9:44 PM, forecasterjack said: EPS spread way down as well. Range of possible outcomes is shrinking I agree https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/724-w-263-n/2017090712-240-irma.html Expand The intensity forecast looks too conservative, a 3 at landfall? No Met is calling for that, very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 We saw an equally large east trend a couple days ago... I'd like to see the models keep this solution for another couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 9:44 PM, beanskip said: Hard to argue against a westward model trend - 12z Euro, 12z GFS, 12z HWRF, 12z HMON and now -- it would appear, through 42 hours at least -- the 18z GFS, all west of prior run positions. Expand Yeah looks like the 18z gfs is going more euro like on the track so far thru 54hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 9:44 PM, beanskip said: Hard to argue against a westward model trend - 12z Euro, 12z GFS, 12z HWRF, 12z HMON and now -- it would appear, through 42 hours at least -- the 18z GFS, all west of prior run positions. Expand It literally scrapes the north central coast of Cuba from hours 30-42. I wonder if it will induce some slight weakening, although I did specify yesterday that I could only find mountain tops around 500-700ft in that region of Cuba. Guantanamo and areas in the southeast have ranges thousands of feet (over 3k I believe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 9:46 PM, PackGrad05 said: We saw an equally large east trend a couple days ago... I'd like to see the models keep this solution for another couple runs. Expand Not likely...the closer in time we get to a storm, the more accurate models become. There is a good article on this here. With each model run, the margin of error decreases. https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/destination-florida-how-confident-we-can-be-in-hurricane-irmas-track/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Most definitely a troublesome run for S Fla. West at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 9:46 PM, lwg8tr0514 said: The intensity forecast looks too conservative, a 3 at landfall? No Met is calling for that, very unlikely. Expand The ensemble members are lower resolution and thus don't capture smaller scale features like absolute pressure minima in the eye of strong hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Yeah, that's a big jump SW on the 18z GFS compared to the 12z at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 9:46 PM, lwg8tr0514 said: The intensity forecast looks too conservative, a 3 at landfall? No Met is calling for that, very unlikely. Expand Right. GFS shows intensification as it reaches area between Cuba and Florida, going from 922 mb at hr 42 to 899 mb at hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Turning N at 66, absolute disaster run for Miami. Can't believe this is happening before our eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Welp this isn't a good GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The GFS is about the worst-case scenario for Miami, as it passes about 10-15 miles west of the city. Fortunately, there remain more runs to come, so there's still time for a less destructive outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 9:29 PM, wkd said: I wonder if the more northerly track is due to the slight jog north that occurred shortly after 12Z. See if the GFS follows suit. Expand Well so much for that idea. GFS not following suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 9:46 PM, lwg8tr0514 said: The intensity forecast looks too conservative, a 3 at landfall? No Met is calling for that, very unlikely. Expand Agreed, the EPS system doesn't initialize the intensity of strong hurricanes very well. Toss the intensity forecasts, focus on the track which is the valuable part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 The GFS runs Irma right to the coast after landfall too. I've been hammering this track the last few days as it was easy to see once you eliminated the outliers. It's just a matter if the eye crosses directly over Miami or slightly East or West of it. Either way, it's a huge eyewall with major hurricane force winds in all four quadrants. Truly an unprecedented event is likely to occur! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 18Z GFS absolutely the worst possible path for the Miami to Palm Beach gold coast area. Eye 10 or 15 miles inland. No relief going through the eye. Just relentless damaging winds for several hours. A track like this has never been seen. 910mb west of Miami. Jeez, Andrew was 920mb and that was a small area east to west south of Miami. This would be much worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 We're probably seeing the best IR presentation since post-Barbuda hit. No longer as lopsided looking, so shear is probably trending down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Orlando is absolutely raked overnight Sunday. In addition to the devastation from MIA Dade Broward and PB, this could strike a huge blow to the tourism biz in Central FLA. Assuming this track holds, but it's not set in stone of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Looks like the GFS is finally beginning to lose the poleward bias. https://mobile.twitter.com/pppapin/status/905821713467936768?p=p Maps via Brian Tang's @UAlbanyDAES show #GFS has had a consistent poleward bias with #Irma. The #ECMWF in contrast has been spot on. pic.twitter.com/VAFEhkaCDg View photo · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 9:57 PM, NJwx85 said: The GFS runs Irma right to the coast after landfall too. I've been hammering this track the last few days as it was easy to see once you eliminated the outliers. It's just a matter if the eye crosses directly over Miami or slightly East or West of it. Either way, it's a huge eyewall with major hurricane force winds in all four quadrants. Truly an unprecedented event is likely to occur! Expand It never quite makes it to open waters, though, before moving into GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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