jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 12z 12kNAM makes landfall near Key Largo 11am Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 2:41 PM, wxeyeNH said: Big change on 12Z NAM at hour. Much further SW by 100 miles. Will be a Florida hit Expand 6 hour changes on the NAM are ludicrous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 2:43 PM, KPITSnow said: I would take bastardi with a grain of salt. First off, there is very little precedent for a hurricane strengthening to sub 900 in the Atlantic basin. It has only happened once in this position with the Labor Day storm. Two, bastardi is a known overhyper. Expand Yep. Everything in there might be what he "wants" to happen, but probably not what will actually happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 12z NAM FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 2:45 PM, CTWeatherFreak said: 6 hour changes on the NAM are ludicrous! Expand NAM is gonna NAM...it struggles with TCs...I wouldn't get too hung up on the NAM at this point. It's solutions will trend toward the Euro and/or GFS with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 ~2500' feet up. Some of the taller buildings in Miami are around 700'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 2:41 PM, donsutherland1 said: Irma's interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, even as it remains offshore, may well contribute to some weakening. A lot of the guidance shows re-intensification as it nears Florida, so we'll see what happens. Expand That's what happened with Andrew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 2:47 PM, OUGrad05 said: NAM is gonna NAM...it struggles with TCs...I wouldn't get too hung up on the NAM at this point. It's solutions will trend toward the Euro and/or GFS with time. Expand Yeah, wouldn't even look at it, I remember a couple years ago it had Hurricane Joaquin hitting the USA 12 hours prior to the event when every single other model had figured out it was going OTS. It is not worth looking at IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just for fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 7Location: 20.4°N 69.7°WMoving: WNW at 16 mphMin pressure: 921 mbMax sustained: 175 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adiabatic13 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 2:51 PM, Bluescat1 said: That's what happened with Andrew. Expand actually, Andrew was moving to the W/SW when it made landfall near Homestead, it did not interact in any way with Haiti/DR or Cuba prior to landfall (nor after landfall for that matter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 2:53 PM, NJwx85 said: Just for fun Expand That forecast eye is huge but not really out of the question given current structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 This is why most mets highly advise not to use the NAM for TCs. It really is not designed for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach, including the Florida Keys. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach, including the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papa Joe Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 2:43 PM, KPITSnow said: I would take bastardi with a grain of salt. First off, there is very little precedent for a hurricane strengthening to sub 900 in the Atlantic basin. It has only happened once in this position with the Labor Day storm. Two, bastardi is a known overhyper. edit: obviously it could happen, but I tend to "wait and see" on a scenario that extreme. Expand The thing about strengthening close to S FL is that the Florida Current comes out of the Florida Strait, deep and full of hot water from the GOM. Since it is a current, Irma could stop all forward motion, and the current would continue delivering hot water to the storm. The FLorida Current, IMHO, is why '35 and Andrew spun up to Cat 5 before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 2:49 PM, NJwx85 said: ~2500' feet up. Some of the taller buildings in Miami are around 700'. Expand 925mb isn't a finite level of height, same with any other pressure level. If the surface pressure of the storm at center location is less than 925mb than the 925 mb level intersects the ground just outside of center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 northern islands back to a hurricane watch due to Jose, very unfortunate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 2:58 PM, Stebo said: 925mb isn't a finite level of height, same with any other pressure level. If the surface pressure of the storm at center location is less than 925mb than the 925 mb level intersects the ground just outside of center. Expand Thanks, so in other words if Irma is sub 925mb then what's listed as 925mb is actually the surface? Learn something new everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 IIRC Andrew strengthened over the everglades. Does anyone else remember seeing that? Andrew was upgraded to a cat 5 after reevaluation. Also my family survived Andrew in Homestead. I remember seeing the pictures of the devastation . Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 3:00 PM, NJwx85 said: Thanks, so in other words if Irma is sub 925mb then what's listed as 925mb is actually the surface? Learn something new everyday. Expand At small points within the storm, not the entire storm itself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Latest guidance. NHC seems to be closing in on a south FL landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 2:55 PM, CoastalWx said: This is why most mets highly advise not to use the NAM for TCs. It really is not designed for them. Expand Yeah it's just fun to look at. I'm not taking its solution seriously, however it does seem to fit the model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 3:01 PM, Stebo said: At small points within the storm, not the entire storm itself... Expand Thanks for the explanation. I'm guessing that the deeper the system gets under 925mb, the more forecasted 925mb winds that are brought down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 3:03 PM, NJwx85 said: Thanks for the explanation. I'm guessing that the deeper the system gets under 925mb, the more forecasted 925mb winds that are brought down to the surface. Expand Yes as the area would be larger, we are still talking about very small areas here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 3:00 PM, Rickg2 said: IIRC Andrew strengthened over the everglades. Does anyone else remember seeing that? Andrew was upgraded to a cat 5 after reevaluation. Also my family survived Andrew in Homestead. I remember seeing the pictures of the devastation . Incredible. Expand Here's the paper that was the basis for Andrew's reclassification: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/04landsea.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Surge Watch now in effect as of 11 am - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adiabatic13 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Irma will be experiencing her diurnal max tonight at about the same time that she is at her furthest point from land between Haiti and Cuba, this is also prior to when any significant shear is forecast to begin impacting her circulation and well into the rocket fuel-esque TCHP region...for all of these reasons, tonight's intensity trend should be a pretty good indicator of her potential to max out below 900mb, in other words, she should start intensifying on her way to record low pressure this evening if she's going to break records later in the Florida straits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Guidance is really hammering the idea of strengthening in the Florida straits while at the same time Irma will be getting larger. Yes winds may lower but the overall storm will get more powerful with devastating storm surge potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Hurricane Watch issued for S. Florida and the Keys - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 3:09 PM, SnoSki14 said: Guidance is really hammering the idea of strengthening in the Florida straits while at the same time Irma will be getting larger. Yes winds may lower but the overall storm will get more powerful with devastating storm surge potential. Expand One of my concerns has been that we are just coming out of a full moon so the tides will be astronomically high as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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