NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Based on KJUA loop St. Thomas looks to take a direct hit. https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=JUA&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:18 PM, NJwx85 said: Based on KJUA loop St. Thomas looks to take a direct hit. https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=JUA&loop=yes Expand Yeah, we are hours away from a Cat 5 hit on US territory. Even a more N wobble would still almost certainly still place them in the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 1:59 PM, gravitylover said: So I can't find much on how Barbuda came through the storm. Links to info? Expand Hurricane Irma: Storm Leaves Major Damage on Some Islands Also, Barbuda, home to about 1,600 people, was "so badly damaged that there is no communication" from the island, said Keithley Meade, director of a meteorological office in Antigua and Barbuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 I would like to empathize that while most of the guidance shows some weakening over the next day or two, all guidance that keeps Irma away from Cuba shows significant strengthening once in the Southern Bahamas. I wouldn't be lowering awareness if recon finds that Irma has weakened slightly. It should still be a cat 4 on approach to Florida, and that could be conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:06 PM, LakeEffectKing said: Yeah, at hours T+192, T+216, and T+240....I suspect that if the U of Albany graphic went out to those leads, Euro would continue it's dominance. The stats don't lie. Expand Not just hour 192. It's been erratic with anything past hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:01 PM, Derecho! said: It's getting to the Point where some of the consensus models don't matter because the Euro is so dominant (I really wish the Euro ensemble mean was on that chart, though). It's so good it's getting boring - witness the immense resistance in this thread to Euro dominance. Expand When a given run has a divergence between the OP and EPS, the very next OP run moves to what the EPS had in the run 12 hrs earlier. Like we saw how the 0z OP shifted just north of Cuba like the 12Z EPS mean had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric In NW Ohio Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 San Juan radar screen shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Eyewall coming within PR radar range. 142 MPH winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:25 PM, ag3 said: Not just hour 192. It's been erratic with anything past hour 72. Expand Post your spreadsheet and error calculations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:25 PM, ag3 said: Not just hour 192. It's been erratic with anything past hour 72. Expand Except for the fact that it's wrecking everything else in verification, even at hour 120. Does the verification link really need posted for the thousandth time? The math says ECMWF is best, so I trust it the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Wide shot from GOES-16 - you can see all 3 named storms out there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 ENOUGH. Discuss the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I'm thinking Branson's solar array is in trouble....wouldn't want to be around there with 120+mph glass flying through the air!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 What's the basis for calling this the most powerful Atlantic storm on record? I thought it was number 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:30 PM, Hurricane Agnes said: Wide shot from GOES-16 - you can see all 3 named storms out there - Expand Most powerful Atlantic hurricane on record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMulkey Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:32 PM, NWLinnCountyIA said: What's the basis for calling this the most powerful Atlantic storm on record? I thought it was number 2. Expand Seems to be most powerful in the Atlantic proper, not including Caribbean or GoM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:32 PM, JC-CT said: Most powerful Atlantic hurricane on record? Expand I think those references are for it being a CAT 5 in the Atlantic at that point (vs being a CAT 5 in the Caribbean). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:32 PM, NWLinnCountyIA said: What's the basis for calling this the most powerful Atlantic storm on record? I thought it was number 2. Expand Yeah, I was wondering this myself... even if you don't recognize Allen's record, it's still in a three-way tie. I guess the writers and mets calling it #1 are either applying their own intensity estimates or employing some technicality (like not including the GoM or Carib) to use the catchphrase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:32 PM, NWLinnCountyIA said: What's the basis for calling this the most powerful Atlantic storm on record? I thought it was number 2. Expand clickbait...first we have to segment the basin in a new way, then we can make the sensational claim! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:37 PM, Juliancolton said: Yeah, I was wondering this myself... even if you don't recognize Allen's record, it's still in a three-way tie. I guess the writers and mets calling it #1 are either applying their own intensity estimates or employing some technicality (like not including the GoM or Carib) to use the catchphrase. Expand On 9/6/2017 at 2:37 PM, cmasty1978 said: clickbait...first we have to segment the basin in a new way, then we can make the sensational claim! Expand Stop this ****! Really, it makes you look foolish and clutters the thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenavp Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Poor Wilma doesn't get enough respect. I wonder if people just don't remember it looked like this at peak: At one point the eye was 2nm in diameter. 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:37 PM, Juliancolton said: Yeah, I was wondering this myself... even if you don't recognize Allen's record, it's still in a three-way tie. I guess the writers and mets calling it #1 are either applying their own intensity estimates or employing some technicality (like not including the GoM or Carib) to use the catchphrase. Expand On 9/6/2017 at 2:37 PM, cmasty1978 said: clickbait...first we have to segment the basin in a new way, then we can make the sensational claim! Expand The tweet was from the twitter account for the NOAA Satellites Public Affairs office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:40 PM, LakeEffectKing said: Stop this ****! Really, it makes you look foolish and clutters the thread! Expand Critical analysis of a potential meteorological record is foolish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Recon just measured 150kt SFMR in the SW eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 ...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA CLOSING IN ON THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 64.0W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:43 PM, Juliancolton said: Critical analysis of a potential meteorological record is foolish? Expand In a thread discussing an ongoing Major Cat 5 hurricane where hundreds will likely die, yes, you look extremely foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:26 PM, magpiemaniac said: Eyewall coming within PR radar range. 142 MPH winds. Expand I think RadarScope maxes out at 142 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Despite the intensity debate, there has to have been some sort of record set for maintaining 180+mph for over 24 hours now. That, is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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