Random Chaos Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Seems to have weakened slightly - cloud tops have warmed, it is slightly asymetric now, and recon is only finding about 175mph winds (as oppossed to the 185-190mph earlier). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 1:41 AM, larrye said: Unless I'm mistaken, it is only the 18z GFS that has shifted a bit east. Why would the cone change significantly just due to one model having moved east? What if it's an outlier or a anomaly? There would need to be a general trend, or a good solid reason to think the 18Z GFS was "more right" than everything else. Expand I was thinking that all GFS runs today had shifted some what east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 1:43 AM, Random Chaos said: Seems to have weakened slightly - cloud tops have warmed, it is slightly asymetric now, and recon is only finding about 175mph winds (as oppossed to the 185-190mph earlier). Expand ERC most likely underway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 1:43 AM, Random Chaos said: Seems to have weakened slightly - cloud tops have warmed, it is slightly asymetric now, and recon is only finding about 175mph winds (as oppossed to the 185-190mph earlier). Expand It had to come at some point. I also noticed that it's looking a bit less annular and a bit more like convenctive banding especially on the out edges of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The concentric eyewalls are visible on radar. Some recon passes show the spike of the second eyewall. They are super close together so it could be a very clean cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 To me, the most populated location that's going to get destroyed is St Martin. They are in the path of the eye itself. Hard to imagine what they will go through tonight and into the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 It looks like the Barbuda NDBC station may already be dead actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 1:50 AM, HKY_WX said: To me, the most populated location that's going to get destroyed is St Martin. They are in the path of the eye itself. Hard to imagine what they will go through tonight and into the morning. Expand I could see it going slightly north of them but they're still going to get hit really hard in the eye wall it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Recent scan. Keep in mind backside echoes not returning well in eastern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socar2001 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I know usually its understood that the northeastern quadrant of a storm is the worst. is that still true with this storm? looks to be equally strong in all quads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 1:46 AM, WesterlyWx said: It had to come at some point. I also noticed that it's looking a bit less annular and a bit more like convenctive banding especially on the out edges of the storm Expand I just noticed that. Western side almost seems to be contracting or caving in some. Weird. Eye still looks good and symmetric. I would think land interaction with those tiny islands would do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 1:45 AM, Upper Level LOL said: ERC most likely underway Expand ERC analysis doesnt show anything significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 1:55 AM, socar2001 said: I know usually its understood that the northeastern quadrant of a storm is the worst. is that still true with this storm? looks to be equally strong in all quads. Expand It's the front right that has the winds + forward speed = max winds. Subtract the forward speed on the left side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Know it's supposed to veer a little north but PR really looks like it could be under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:01 AM, Jaguars said: Know it's supposed to veer a little north but PR really looks like it could be under the gun. Expand I think they're going to be good. That thing is getting real W-NW movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Microwave is rather impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 1:55 AM, socar2001 said: I know usually its understood that the northeastern quadrant of a storm is the worst. is that still true with this storm? looks to be equally strong in all quads. Expand You can't use compass directions. It seems the NE is the worst because we mostly are concerned with hurricanes moving north up the east coast. Think of it as a vehicle you are driving. Look straight ahead and then over at your front seat passenger. You just scanned the strongest quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:03 AM, SnowGoose69 said: I think they're going to be good. That thing is getting real W-NW movement Expand That's good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 This Air Force plane has made a loop in the eye its last 3 passes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Yea Irma has a good nw jog to it now. Barbuda about to get into some real bad conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Raw T# on the steady rise again. Back to 6.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 161KNOTS SURFACE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL, SO SHOULD BE 185MPH AT 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:22 AM, Bostonseminole said: 161KNOTS SURFACE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL, SO SHOULD BE 185MPH AT 11Wait- didn't we just have 167 knots at the surface just a few minutes ago? Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The 161kt drop: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:06 AM, jburns said: You can't use compass directions. It seems the NE is the worst because we mostly are concerned with hurricanes moving north up the east coast. Think of it as a vehicle you are driving. Look straight ahead and then over at your front seat passenger. You just scanned the strongest quadrant. Expand On the weather map, how do they model a wife screaming, "If you are going to drive like a manic, let me out of the car right now!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Crazy how Barbuda only 60 miles or so from the eye are only gusting 40kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:27 AM, mempho said: Wait- didn't we just have 167 knots at the surface just a few minutes ago? Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Expand The 167 was 3mb up. It looked like the surface due to how Tropical Tidbits is coded. If there is no surface wind report, the surface pressure does not show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 2:29 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Crazy how Barbuda only 60 miles or so from the eye are only gusting 40kts Expand Hmm, very interesting, I suspect that will change. Looks like a touch of dry air on the west has impacted the storm a bit on the western fringes but the core is holding out strong. Those wind speeds will ramp quickly I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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