NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 5:42 PM, Hoosier said: As has been said, the timing and degree of the northward turn is going to be so important. The GEFS members that have landfall in Cuba tend to have a more gradual turn and allow Irma to get into the Gulf. But then you have the HMON posted above that landfalls in Cuba and still takes it up the eastern side of Florida. Expand The 12z HMON avoids Cuba, the HWRF doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Wanted to thank the mets, mods, and SME hobbyists for the analysis and keeping this thread flowing smoothly. Hopefully in the coming days the less experienced among us (myself included) will be able to add value and participate, but be selective and hold off on ungrounded speculation and distractions, as it's going to be really important to keep this crisp, clear and on point as we get to the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 HR90-105 has Irma into Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 HWRF looks to be going west -- spends at least 1/2 day over northern Cuba. Almost to 81W at 105 hours and still not back over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deaglesnest Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 5:43 PM, donsutherland1 said: Probably a 20%-30% chance if one goes by the 0z ECMWF ensembles; less than that if one goes by the 12z GEFS. The ECWMF will be initializing momentarily so we'll get more information in a little while. Expand Thank you very much. This board has been a invaluable resource Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 5:44 PM, NJwx85 said: The 12z HMON avoids Cuba, the HWRF doesn't. Expand Ah, my bad. Both start on H lol. But you still have the UKMET with the Cuba landfall and sharper turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Pressure also down 5mb this update...926 mb vs 931 mb at 11am. Still moving west at 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 5:43 PM, NJwx85 said: The next aircraft just departed base, should be there for the 5PM advisory. Expand recon looks like it turned around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanBarg Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 5:53 PM, Bostonseminole said: recon looks like it turned around? Expand That is the upper level dropsonde flight and they won't be going into the eye for wind/pressure readings. Next flight into the eye takes off at 3:30 CST I believe. https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2017/09/05/the-g-iv-is-set-to-gather-data-around-hurricane-irma-today/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Cleo was a major that went over Cuba...went from a 4 to a 1 and recovered some after but weakened greatly on it's approach to SC. Would expect Cuba to really weaken Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 It remained in Cuba till HR 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 5:55 PM, packbacker said: Cleo was a major that went over Cuba...went from a 4 to a 1 and recovered some after but weakened greatly on it's approach to SC. Would expect Cuba to really weaken Irma.That's a totally different track than Irma willTake. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 5:55 PM, packbacker said: Cleo was a major that went over Cuba...went from a 4 to a 1 and recovered some after but weakened greatly on it's approach to SC. Would expect Cuba to really weaken Irma. Expand Compare that path to the Cuba topo map. It went over the mountains on the southwest part of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 If Irma doesn't make that more northerly turn later today I would say the chances of land interaction with the Dominican or Cuba are much higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 5:55 PM, packbacker said: Cleo was a major that went over Cuba...went from a 4 to a 1 and recovered some after but weakened greatly on it's approach to SC. Would expect Cuba to really weaken Irma. Expand Cleo had more interaction with the mountains on Cuba's SE side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 5:57 PM, AcePuppy said: It remained in Cuba till HR 120. Expand Yep...into Cuba Cat4 out of Cuba low end Cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 5:58 PM, StormChaser4Life said: If Irma doesn't make that more northerly turn later today I would say the chances of land interaction with the Dominican or Cuba are much higher Expand last recon fixed showed a northward trend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 The Euro is a tick North of 00z through hr 54 but the differences are negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Noticed this on the 2:00 pm update. Is this different than the 11:00 am?Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) fromthe center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160miles (260 km).Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 6:02 PM, NJwx85 said: The Euro is a tick North of 00z through hr 54 but the differences are negligible. Even a tick North could mean no Cuba landfallSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 6:03 PM, DCAlexandria said: Even a tick North could mean no Cuba landfall Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand By hr 60 it's almost right on top of the 00z position for the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Be interesting to see if Irma can break this record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 6:02 PM, Bostonseminole said: last recon fixed showed a northward trend.. Expand I just took a peek at satellite and you can say the slightest little jog nw. If this thing ends up traversing northern Cuba that would def take Irma down a few notches. Only time can tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Euro looks similar to 0z EXCEPT it has now spun up a 996 mb low in the SW gulf of mexico at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 6:04 PM, NJwx85 said: By hr 60 it's almost right on top of the 00z position for the same time.Did 0z make a Cuba landfall?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 6:13 PM, DCAlexandria said: Did 0z make a Cuba landfall? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Direct hit to Cuba at hr 96... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 The Euro still makes landfall in Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 6:13 PM, beanskip said: Euro looks similar to 0z EXCEPT it has now spun up a 996 mb low in the SW gulf of mexico at 72 hours. Expand That development has been hinted at by models. Wonder if it will pump up heights ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 regarding the latest Vortex recon message: the surface wind detected is 160 kt, the max flight level wind is 151 kt. Is this something to be expected? I was thinking that the flight level winds were always at least 10% greater than the surface wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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