lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 4:36 PM, pazzo83 said: I'd love to hear the meteorological explanation for this decoupling -> I mean have we ever seen a 180mph cane with a pressure around 930mb? Expand And the craziest thing is it's not like Irma is the size of Charley. It's not huge but by no means is it tiny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 4:29 PM, jbenedet said: I will however say that the trend of the GFS to hang the trough back longer over the east coast needs to be watched very closely. I'd be hedging against a track west of the 12z GFS until we see that trend stop.That trough/ULL is make or break on the forecast. I still set my sights up the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Is there any reason to doubt the SFMR readings the NHC used as the basis for the 180mph intensity? When I checked satellite this morning I was expecting 160-170mph based on the size of the eye and the warmer cloud tops than last night (also warmer compared to the strongest Cat5s on IR). So I was surprised to see the NHC had set the intensity to 180mph. The central pressure also seems a little high for a strong Cat5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 4:42 PM, skierinvermont said: Is there any reason to doubt the SFMR readings the NHC used as the basis for the 180mph intensity? When I checked satellite this morning I was expecting 160-170mph based on the size of the eye and the warmer cloud tops than last night (also warmer compared to the strongest Cat5s on IR). So I was surprised to see the NHC had set the intensity to 180mph. The central pressure also seems a little high for a strong Cat5. Expand Just got 160kt SFMR, so I would believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like recon measured roughly 160kts SFMR in the NE eyewall... near 185mph. Extrapolated pressure of 923.7... STILL strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 163230 1704N 05839W 6965 02754 9623 +099 +099 134145 150 136 075 00 163300 1703N 05840W 6973 02711 9573 +106 +106 138145 151 147 066 00 163330 1702N 05841W 6961 02668 9504 +115 +115 139132 141 160 046 00 163400 1701N 05842W 6962 02616 //// +109 //// 137121 133 160 024 05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I am surprised how small in size Irma is right now. In such a moist environment I would have suspected the overall cloud structure to be much bigger. Wasn't it forecasted to grow in size, area wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 4:39 PM, USCG RS said: That trough/ULL is make or break on the forecast. I still set my sights up the EC Expand Imo either way she dances with S Florida but what happens beyond that pass is highly uncertain at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 So, everyone is just tossing the 0Z Euro that went up the *west* coast of Fla.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 How often do you see the three triangles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 So is there any explanation why the winds are so strong compared to the size of eye/cloud top temps/T number/central pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Thinking we should see 185mph and ~924mb on the next advisory... Nearing record strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 4:48 PM, jacindc said: So, everyone is just tossing the 0Z Euro that went up the *west* coast of Fla.? Expand I don't think anyone is "tossing" very much of anything. This 12z run of the GFS is just slightly east. They are just model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 tops getting colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 4:48 PM, jacindc said: So, everyone is just tossing the 0Z Euro that went up the *west* coast of Fla.? Expand Nobody should be dismissing anything at this point, except maybe landfall in Texas or Bermuda. Really can't stress enough to our guests and newer members that a wide range of options is still on the table. Models will move around with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 NW eyewall also had SMFR measured around 150kt. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 926mb on the splashdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 4:53 PM, Hoosier said: Nobody should be dismissing anything at this point, except maybe landfall in Texas or Bermuda. Really can't stress enough to our guests and newer members that a wide range of options is still on the table. Models will move around with each run. Expand Agreed. I just brought it up because no one in all of the 12z "it's going east" discussions has mentioned the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 4:53 PM, Hoosier said: Nobody should be dismissing anything at this point, except maybe landfall in Texas or Bermuda. Really can't stress enough to our guests and newer members that a wide range of options is still on the table. Models will move around with each run. Expand On top of that, with the angle it is approaching at, a 100-200 mile deviation can mean the diffeeence between an outer banks landfall and Panama City. I feel for emergency management folks in Florida. How the heck do you decide who to evacuate when a 100 mile adjustment can mean the difference between a Miami/Tampa landfall? What do you do with folks in the keys? Where do you send them? Just a total nightmare scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freshgeek Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 4:47 PM, Morris said: 163230 1704N 05839W 6965 02754 9623 +099 +099 134145 150 136 075 00 163300 1703N 05840W 6973 02711 9573 +106 +106 138145 151 147 066 00 163330 1702N 05841W 6961 02668 9504 +115 +115 139132 141 160 046 00 163400 1701N 05842W 6962 02616 //// +109 //// 137121 133 160 024 05 Expand How is this to be read? I'm guessing its Time of measurement, lat, long, but what are the other measurements? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 4:57 PM, jacindc said: Agreed. I just brought it up because no one in all of the 12z "it's going east" discussions has mentioned the Euro. Expand Because the new Euro run hasn't come out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Oddly there was an extrapolated pressure of 922.6mb with 35kt winds... and one that was 923.6mb with 15kt winds. Has to be erroneous, that or the core is doing some funky things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Folks, stop looking at the CMC. It's not trustworthy for TCs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 4:59 PM, jojo762 said: Oddly there was an extrapolated pressure of 922.6mb with 35kt winds... and one that was 923.6mb with 15kt winds. Has to be erroneous, that or the core is doing some funky things. Expand Disagree - margin of error around extrap is entirely consistent with observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The outflow has been very impressive all day. Continues to improve and encompass much of the circulation. Unless this fades it only looks to strengthen, which is impressive give the current 180 mph winds. It'll probably get a bump next advisory. What a beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 4:34 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Great site to book mark. GOES 16 visible meso sector of Irma: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80 Expand Little taste for those that didn't click. Much greater resolution available at the link above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The Pressure-Wind relationship that people asked may be an issue with the latitude and restoring forces. IE storms further south may have a higher pressure and stronger winds to correspond, vs a storm higher in latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 5:00 PM, Bruinsyear said: The outflow has been very impressive all day. Continues to improve and encompass much of the circulation. Unless this fades it only looks to strengthen, which is impressive give the current 180 mph winds. It'll probably get a bump next advisory. What a beauty! Expand It's approaching it's hypothesized MPI for the current SST, although the water continues to warm as it moves west, but this should provide at least a nubulous upper bound for intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 5:03 PM, bobbutts said: Little taste for those that didn't click. Much greater resolution available at the link above. Expand How are you able to make a .gif off that site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Amazingly terrifying..... This could if it hits the Miami area and or the Everglades change the landscape for generations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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