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Major Hurricane Irma

NJwx85

By NJwx85,
in Tropical Headquarters

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OUGrad05

OUGrad05

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 12:17 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

Am I the only one who wouldn't be shocked if we wake up with Irma on the doorstep of Cat 5 intensity?  She's well organized and in perfect position to take advantage of the nocturnal maximum.

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Not a bad point sir, but the eye has been looking a touch ragged the last three or four frames...another ERC maybe?

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17570&y=7376&z=5&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=14&p[1]=0&opacity[0]=1&opacity[1]=0&hidden[0]=0&hidden[1]=0&pause=20170904231534&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

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jojo762

jojo762

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 12:17 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

Am I the only one who wouldn't be shocked if we wake up with Irma on the doorstep of Cat 5 intensity?  She's well organized and in perfect position to take advantage of the nocturnal maximum.

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Given the current satellite presentation and recon obs, id be very surprised... as long as there isn't another ERC, which basing off of the recon radar data that doesn't appear imminent. Only 15mph to go to Cat 5 strength. 

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thess

thess

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 12:12 AM, Eskimo Joe said:
Major runs on gas and grocery stores already in S. Florida.  The hype train has already started.  


This isn't the typical snide internet way of asking this question, but what's your source? (Got friends in PBC, sincerely asking--mainstream news, social media, etc?)
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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 12:12 AM, Eskimo Joe said:
Major runs on gas and grocery stores already in S. Florida.  The hype train has already started.  


No water at Wal Mart, generators going fast at Lowes, & lines of people filling gas cans all the way up here in the W FL Panhandle (Pensacola area)!!!


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ncforecaster89

ncforecaster89

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 12:19 AM, jojo762 said:

Given the current satellite presentation and recon obs, id be very surprised... as long as there isn't another ERC, which basing off of the recon radar data that doesn't appear imminent. Only 15mph to go to Cat 5 strength. 

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Actually,  it's officially another 20 knots needed to attain category-five intensity (140 knots/157 mph).  

 

Edit: But, to your main point, it wouldn't surprise me either.   

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NJwx85

NJwx85

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  On 9/5/2017 at 12:20 AM, canderson said:

All this talk (fairly) about Florida, but dear God Guadalupe, St Kitts & Nevis, Antigua, etc are going to get absolutely raked over the coals with a monster. 

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I was just in St Kitts and Tortola in July, most of the homes are built out of reinforced concrete. Problem is I don't think that's sufficient to withstand above cat 3.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

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  On 9/5/2017 at 12:19 AM, OUGrad05 said:

Not a bad point sir, but the eye has been looking a touch ragged the last three or four frames...another ERC maybe?

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17570&y=7376&z=5&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=14&p[1]=0&opacity[0]=1&opacity[1]=0&hidden[0]=0&hidden[1]=0&pause=20170904231534&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

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Disagree, the eye is looking better than it has in awhile and deep Convevtion is now 2/3rds wrapped around the CDO.

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Jackstraw

Jackstraw

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 12:20 AM, canderson said:

All this talk (fairly) about Florida, but dear God Guadalupe, St Kitts & Nevis, Antigua, etc are going to get absolutely raked over the coals with a monster. 

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Yes.  It's going to be a very fine line for the northern most islands.  Right now Anguilla is going to be roughly 15 miles to the SW of the center of the storm on the current official track. They seem to have been taking this very seriously and are about as prepared as they can be.  But as has been said before,  those islands haven't experienced a storm of this magnitude in over 20 years, since Luis in '95.  And this one could be stronger.  We will get a real sense of what Irma has to offer come early Wed. if the current track verifies.

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Dunkman

Dunkman

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 12:19 AM, OUGrad05 said:

Not a bad point sir, but the eye has been looking a touch ragged the last three or four frames...another ERC maybe?

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17570&y=7376&z=5&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=14&p[1]=0&opacity[0]=1&opacity[1]=0&hidden[0]=0&hidden[1]=0&pause=20170904231534&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

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The last recon pass showed not exactly dual maxima but definitely a spreading out of the max wind field in the NE quadrant. I do think earlier in Irma's life we've perhaps thrown around the term ERC a little too loosely (there was definitely at least one) but that could be what's beginning to occur now.

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OUGrad05

OUGrad05

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 12:42 AM, Dunkman said:

The last recon pass showed not exactly dual maxima but definitely a spreading out of the max wind field in the NE quadrant. I do think earlier in Irma's life we've perhaps thrown around the term ERC a little too loosely (there was definitely at least one) but that could be what's beginning to occur now.

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That's certainly what it looks like

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 12:33 AM, senc30 said:

It appears there was a decent shift East on the 18z NAVGEM as compared to the 12z NAVGEM. This is one confusing storm and at times, the models seem to be just as confusing.

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We've been tracking this storm on the models when it was in the 240-264 hr range, if not longer. We are still 5-7 days away. I've been looking at wx models since I was 14, I'm 31 now, you're never going to see consensus across the board for any major event, ever at these time frames. That being said, this will be a tough forecast because we have the Cuba factor (will it cross South enough to hit Cuba and weaken), what point will it turn N. If it turns N early enough and sits off the SE Coast where will it make 2nd landfall? 

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted

No evidence of an ongoing ERC. MW imagery doesn't show concentric eyewalls and recon doesn't show any evidence of double wind maxima. It appears that the eye is larger now, and it's clearing out. This probably means it will start an intensifying trend soon after being stable during most of the day.

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psv88

psv88

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Posted

My family and my wife's family in south Florida are asking my opinion. I don't know what to say. I've been a hobbyist for 20 years and on these boards for 10 years. People are panicking down there. Flights and hotel rooms are limited. It's a really tough call right now. I'm telling them all not to panic and to make decisions tomorrow night, but I'm really not sure what to say. This storm really scares me.

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Morris

Morris

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 12:52 AM, psv88 said:

My family and my wife's family in south Florida are asking my opinion. I don't know what to say. I've been a hobbyist for 20 years and on these boards for 10 years. People are panicking down there. Flights and hotel rooms are limited. It's a really tough call right now. I'm telling them all not to panic and to make decisions tomorrow night, but I'm really not sure what to say. This storm really scares me.

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The thing is that it really won't take much for it to be a little east and hit SC instead.

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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 12:37 AM, NJwx85 said:

I was just in St Kitts and Tortola in July, most of the homes are built out of reinforced concrete. Problem is I don't think that's sufficient to withstand above cat 3.

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Was in Barbados and Matinique for a week each in December. Martinique in particular has serious dangers wth mudslides and poor inland home-type structures. Sending all those down there good thoughts.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
  • Author
Posted
  On 9/5/2017 at 12:52 AM, psv88 said:

My family and my wife's family in south Florida are asking my opinion. I don't know what to say. I've been a hobbyist for 20 years and on these boards for 10 years. People are panicking down there. Flights and hotel rooms are limited. It's a really tough call right now. I'm telling them all not to panic and to make decisions tomorrow night, but I'm really not sure what to say. This storm really scares me.

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What part of South Florida? I have family in Boynton Beach. I told them to get out. They are flying up here on Friday. They were coming up here for a wedding anyway.

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