weathafella Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:30 PM, NJwx85 said: At hr 150 it actually looks like the Western eyewall just scrapes the coast. Expand Yes-not the worst case scenario for USA but awful for the Bahamas nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:28 PM, weathafella said: Miami does escape the eastern eye wall though on the euro. Expand Yes but it's extremely close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:30 PM, NJwx85 said: At hr 150 it actually looks like the Western eyewall just scrapes the coast. Expand Deepening at the same time down to 924 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:33 PM, bluewave said: Deepening at the same time down to 924 mb. Expand Probably about 145-150mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Back over the water quickly and headed North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:34 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Probably about 145-150mph winds. Expand Easily that strong. Not the type of track or intensity our friends in S FL want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Probably going to hit Charleston-N Myrtle beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:35 PM, NJwx85 said: Back over the water quickly and headed North. Expand That's a very ominous position the globals have been trending toward between hr 120 and hr 144 for Carolinas on north based on climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:35 PM, NJwx85 said: Back over the water quickly and headed North. Expand So does it actually make landfall? (Center of eye onshore) or does it just graze the east coast of FL with the western edge of the eye wall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Second LF near Savannah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 First real landfall near GA/SC coastal border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Recon just found 139 mph flight level wind and 129 mph surface wind in the northeast quadrant. It appears the outer eyewall is taking over and strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:40 PM, NJwx85 said: Second LF near Savannah. Expand Where was the first? I thought this was first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 LF actually occurs near the GA/SC border as ridge to the North rebuilds, and with the flow around the high it has no chance to kick East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Outer eyewall has taken over on the NE side. ~113-114 on the SFMR. Right in line with the ADT estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Eyewall directly over Miami/Ft Lauderdale. Yikes. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/787-w-261-n/base-reflectivity/20170910-1800z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:42 PM, weathafella said: Where was the first? I thought this was first? Expand Well I was speaking as if it actually does make LF in SE FL because it's extremely close and it could have in between panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 MEH, CMCs backdoor phase was my favorite 12z run. This is going to end up being another 60hr downpour for the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 No sign of the big GFS Lakes trough on the Euro after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:44 PM, Amped said: MEH, CMCs backdoor phase was my favorite 12z run. This is going to end up being another 60hr downpour for the Carolinas. Expand This isn't going to end up running up the coast like Floyd unless the timing changes dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 My old stomping grounds of Paris Island, SC would be leveled. May have to findd a new place to make marines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 HWRF has Irma going right across Cuba. It's been on the southern end of model guidance for a while so I'm definitely keeping an eye on how it evolves. That would be bad news for Cuba, but definitely good news for the US. It also seems to be pretty far west before it makes any turn, but the model only goes to 126hr so maybe it would soon thereafter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:42 PM, NJwx85 said: LF actually occurs near the GA/SC border as ridge to the North rebuilds, and with the flow around the high it has no chance to kick East. Expand Yes euro would be a slow mover/staller once inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:45 PM, NJwx85 said: This isn't going to end up running up the coast like Floyd unless the timing changes dramatically. Expand GFS and CMC show TS force winds along the entire east coast. It's not a matter of timing, it's a matter of whether or not there's a troff in the lakes, or OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:44 PM, Hoosier said: No sign of the big GFS Lakes trough on the Euro after landfall. Expand Yup none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Maybe the only thing good you can say about this run is that it's past 120 hrs and has time to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 The 12Z Euro at D7 shows Irma off the east coast of Florida and moving north. If it misses the turn though it could wind up pretty far in the GOM. Or if the turn occurs later it might wind up on the west side of Florida instead of the east side. As landfall possibilities get closer and closer to the D7 and especially D5 lead times the escape routes OTS will start dwindling if this trend for a later turn north continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Maybe not technical landfall in Florida but might as well call it a hit for all intents and purposes. Western eyewalls can be pretty nasty too... just saw that example around Rockport, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 It's scary that the Euro, a model that historically underestimates intensity, has the pressure at 930 when it gets to the Miami area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:48 PM, bluewave said: Maybe the only thing good you can say about this run that it's past 120 hrs and has time to change. Expand It certainly has time to change especially considering even a slight adjustment in that track could make a huge difference with things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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